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Three reasons to invest in the Alibaba IPO

Now that Yahoo Inc.’s (NASDAQ:YHOO) freeing up 20 percent of Alibaba’s shares, the Chinese tech giant Alibaba can begin preparing for its IPO. Expect a lot of fireworks as Alibaba’s one of the most exciting tech companies behind the Great Firewall. Here are three reasons to consider investing in the Alibaba IPO:

1) Fingers in a lot of pots. Summing up Alibaba’s internet operations is a bit like trying to describe Microsoft’s software offerings. They both do a hell of a lot. Alibaba’s most promising properties, though, are Alibaba.com (a business-to-business commerce site), Taobao.com (an eBay-like auction and Buy It Now site), eTao.com (a shopping search engine similar to Google Products), a cloud computing division, and Alipay (a PayPal-like payment processor for online transactions in China).

2) Rapid growth. One of the easiest ways to see how fast Alibaba’s growing is to look at Yahoo’s returns. In 2005, Yahoo invested $1 billion for a 40 percent stake in Alibaba. Now, they’re selling half that stake for $7.1 billion. Their full stake is worth some $14 billion, and that means they’ve made 14 times their money in seven short years.

3) The fat part of the curve. For most Westerners, buying and selling products online is second nature. That’s not the case in China. The country’s still in the fat part of the growth curve for e-commerce. Indeed, China’s online shopping industry is expected to grow by 42 percent this year (per Bloomberg). Contrast that with the U.S. where Q1 2012 e-commerce growth stood at 17 percent (per comScore). As China’s largest e-commerce provider, Alibaba stands to rake in a big part of that 42 percent growth.

Already, Alibaba’s pulling in substantial profits. The company generated $2.3 billion in the year ended Sept. 30 ($1 billion more than the previous year) and posted a profit of $268 million.

While we don’t know Alibaba’s IPO date yet, it is expected to come by the end of 2015 at the latest.

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Millennial Media IPO: The future of mobile advertising?

The rumors have been confirmed. Kind of. A fresh report from Bloomberg cites two un-named sources that claim Baltimore-based Millennial Media, Inc. is in talks with several banks regarding a possible IPO. Millennial’s managed to carve out its own niche in the face of intense competition with heavyweights, Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), and they’ve had quite a bit of success.

Despite owning just 6.8 percent of the market, Millennial’s ranked as the third-largest mobile ad company in the country. If Millennial does indeed go public, here are three reasons to consider buying in:

1) Phenomenal growth. The mobile advertising market is one of the latest and greatest gold rushes in Tech Bubble 2.0. IDC estimates that the U.S. mobile ad market was worth $877 million last year, and it expects revenue to exceed $1 billion in 2011. The market’s dominated by Google and Apple, but there’s plenty of pie to go around. Millennial’s revenue tripled in 2010, and the company grew its market share by 1.4 percent to capture 6.8 percent of all mobile-ad revenue in the U.S. They’re not doing it with lightweight, fly-by-night advertisers, either. They’ve inked ad deals with some of the most recognizable brands in the world including Lexus, McDonald’s and Ikea. All told, Millennial’s network reaches more than 91 million unique U.S. mobile users every month. That’s roughly 30 percent of the entire population in the U.S.

2) Partnerships. Google and Apple dominate the mobile advertising space thanks to some prescient acquisitions. In Google’s case, the company dropped $700 million to buy AdMob last year. Apple also ponied up an undisclosed sum for the Quattro Wireless ad network last year. That leaves Millennial as the last indie standing, and the company’s already been in talks with potential suitors (Microsoft, anyone?). Indeed, the biggest threat to a Millennial IPO is the possibility that a Microsoft, Yahoo! or AOL might swoop in and make an offer for the company that’s just too good to refuse.

3) Local campaigns. The most intriguing facet of mobile advertising is the ability to target Web surfers based on where they’re accessing the Web from. Indeed, 42 percent of the ads Millennial served last quarter were targeted locally. That was a jump of 24 percent in a single quarter! The appeal is obvious: serve someone an ad for a burger when they’re driving or walking by your restaurant, and you’re a lot more likely to get them through your front door.

All told, Millennial’s ad network reaches consumers on more than 5,500 mobile devices in over 250 countries and territories. Advertisers are taking notice, and they’re doing it most specifically in a handful of industries: restaurants, automotive and finance. Here’s where Millennial showed the biggest year-over-year growth in revenue between Q1 2010 and Q1 2011:

That’s the sort of growth that’s given Millennial valuation estimates near $1 billion. Expect that valuation to keep growing, too, as smart phones cannibalize traditional cellphones. Millennial’s in a sweet spot, and I suspect investors wouldn’t mind buying shares in the company and going along for the ride.

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LinkedIn IPO date and stock price set: Is it a buy?

LinkedIn is set to IPO on the NYSE on Thursday, May 19, 2011, under ticker symbol “LNKD.” It will be the second social networking site to start trading on the Big Board this month after the so-called “Facebook of China,” RenRen.com (NYSE:RENN), went public on May 5.

It appears LinkedIn has piqued investor interest. The company raised its offer price $10 yesterday from a range of $32-$35 per share to $42-$45 per share. LinkedIn, which targets white-collar professionals, has displayed some impressive growth. Revenue doubled last year to $243 million and membership ballooned around the world to more than 90 million.

Nonetheless, some investors are worried we’re in the midst of Tech Bubble 2.0, and I’m inclined to agree. Here are three reasons to consider holding out before you buy shares in LinkedIn:

1) LinkedIn’s peers. There aren’t many social networking sites that are public, so we don’t have much to go on. In fact, there’s really just one other social networking Web site that trades on U.S. stock exchanges, and that’s China’s RenRen.com. RenRen IPO’d on May 5, and shot up 29 percent in its first day of trading. Not even two weeks later, investors have pushed the stock down 30 percent to $12.73 – a figure that’s below RenRen’s IPO price. If we’re looking for track records in the social networking space, here’s one that says “stay the hell away” (in the short-term, anyway).

2) Steep valuation. Consider this: LinkedIn’s latest valuation puts it at 17 times last year’s revenue. That’s a rather staggering figure when we compare it against other more established tech titans:

  • AOL, Inc. (NYSE:AOL): 1x 2010 revenue
  • Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL): 12.5x 2010 revenue
  • Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG): 6x 2010 revenue
  • Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT): 3.5x 2010 revenue
  • Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX): 6x 2010 revenue
  • Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO): 17x 2010 revenue

Yahoo’s rich valuation is thanks in no small part to it’s rather cunning investments in Chinese tech companies (see my post Three reasons to buy Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) in 2011).

3) Bad timing? Earlier this week I penned a piece titled Stock market crash looming on horizon? The gist? Darkening clouds seem to be gathering on the horizon for the broader stock market. Commodities have crumbled in recent weeks, defensive stocks including healthcare and blue chips are on the rise and inflation’s starting to cut into the pocketbooks of consumers. Shares in speculative companies like LinkedIn could get hit the hardest in the event of a major downturn in the markets.

Not buying my arguments? Convinced LinkedIn stock is going to start strong and shoot for the moon? Check out my post 3 reasons to buy LinkedIn shares during IPO, which outlines the bullish case for the company. If you’re looking for more reasons to stay away, I can indulge you there as well with my post: 3 reasons NOT to invest in LinkedIn IPO.

The fact of the matter is, we’re in uncharted waters. No one’s quite sure how investors will react to the debut of an U.S.-based social networking site. That might be what scares me the most. Investing isn’t about having a “hunch” a stock will do well; it’s about picking companies with strong profits and even better prospects for the future. LinkedIn’s got great prospects, but it’s clear we won’t be seeing profits anytime soon. That makes buying shares a gamble – particularly on LinkedIn’s first day of trading.

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DEMAND MEDIA’S BOWS DOWN TO PANDA


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Will Demand Media’s (DMD) stock recover from Google shock? Absolutely

Feb. 24, 2011, was a fateful day in the fairy tale otherwise known as the ascension of Demand Media Inc. (NYSE:DMD). On an innocuous Thursday evening, Google Fellow Amit Singhal and Principal Engineer Matt Cutts released a blog post detailing an algorithmic change going on behind the scenes of the world’s largest search engine.

“In the last day or so we launched a pretty big algorithmic improvement to our ranking — a change that noticeably impacts 11.8% of our queries — and we wanted to let people know what’s going on,” Singhal and Cutts wrote. “This update is designed to reduce rankings for low-quality sites — sites which are low-value … (sites that) copy content from other websites or sites that are just not very useful.”

The release, which was codenamed Panda, has been widely viewed as an attempt to weed out articles produced by “content farms.” Namely, companies that pay freelance writers small sums to crank out large amounts of content that can then be published online and surrounded by lucrative advertisements. That is, in essence, Demand Media’s business model, as well as the model used by Demand’s competitors; companies like Yahoo! Inc.’s (NASDAQ:YHOO) Associated Content, Examiner.com and Ask.com.

Demand Media, though, has to be the most successful example of content farming to date. Last year, the company was cranking out as many as 1 million articles a month at a cost of up to $15 an article for publication on eHow.com, Livestrong.com and several other sister sites.

As word of Google’s “Panda” update spread, investors dumped Demand Media’s shares, pushing them down more than 20 percent since Feb. 24. That’s roughly the same percentage decline the company experienced in pageviews with search engine referrals for eHow dropping 20 percent (per Reuters) and total page views falling 12 percent.

“Let me be clear, this was a real impact to our business and we take it very seriously,” Rosenblatt said during the company’s conference call. Nonetheless, DMD still surprised analysts to the upside with a strong Q1 earnings report late last week. All told, they brought in $0.06 per share (excluding one-time fees) compared to estimates of $0.04 per share.

Demand Media changing its focus

What’s more important than current earnings, though, is what’s going to happen to the company’s search results moving forward. Demand appears to have heard Google’s warning shot loud and clear. The company’s made a number of dramatic changes to its business model, including:

1) Cleaning up shop. Demand Media has abandoned a program that let anyone publish on eHow.com, and they’re deleting some of their less valuable articles on the site. They’ve also re-designed eHow’s pages and created a “Helpful?” tab (shown at left) that gives readers the ability to provide Demand with feedback on an article’s quality.

2) In-depth features. Rather than paying Demand Media freelancers a flat $10 to $15 per article, they’re honing in on true experts in each respective field and asking them to write longer, more involved feature articles of roughly 850 words. Pay could go as high as $350 per piece. Recent online job postings by Demand have been looking for business writers who have degrees in business, finance, or law, and “extensive experience in business writing” (per WebProNews). That’s a far cry from the good ol’ days when anyone with a Web connection and a decent grasp of the English language was free to pen articles for eHow.com.

3) Brand new partnerships. Hand-in-hand with their push to create more valuable content, Demand’s hired two celebrities to help launch new, flagship content on their sites. The first, typeF.com, is a fashion and beauty site driven by Tyra Banks, and the second, a mini food site by Rachael Ray will appear on eHow.

4) Diversification. In March, Demand Media acquired CoveritLive.com – an online company that lets writers and news outlets create live online chat rooms where fans, readers and celebrities can interact with one another during major events from the NFL draft to fashion shows and international chess tournaments. CoverItLive offers a free ad-supported version of its software and a premium, ad-free version for marquee clients like ESPN and the BBC. The move helps Demand Media diversify away from its reliance on articles as the primary means of delivering ads. Expect more acquisitions in the months and years to come.

Fred’s Best Guess: Demand Media isn’t going to be bankrupt by an algorithm change at Google. The fact of the matter is, Demand Media makes a whole hell of a lot of money for Google, too, as it splits revenue with the search engine company for the ads it runs on many of its pages. While Google doesn’t show preference to Web sites that run Google ads, Google has a mandate to provide relevant search results no matter what users type into the search engine.

In many cases, Demand Media results are the highest quality results for more obscure searches. That’s simply by virtue of the fact that the company’s been churning out niches articles for years. Last year, it spit out the equivalent of more than four English-language Wikipedias. Some of those articles are great and some of them are going to end up in the trash bin.

So long as Demand Media sticks to its plan to make more compelling articles its primary focus moving forward, that 12 percent drop in traffic will look like a minor speed bump in the years to come, and we could truly be witnessing the birth of a new, international publishing superpower. No one wants to admit that, but in the world of online publishing, text is a commodity, and Demand Media has as much of that commodity as anyone.

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3 more reasons to invest in a Facebook IPO

Facebook, which is expected to IPO in the spring of 2012, could be the most over-hyped company on the planet. Or it could be the next Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG). Here are three more arguments for being bullish on shares in a Facebook IPO:

1) Display ads. Google’s the undisputed leader in text ads, and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) is the current leader in graphics-based display ads. That’s expected to change as eMarketer forecasts that Facebook will over-take Yahoo! as the Web’s No. 1 revenue-generating site for display ads this year. Facebook’s display ad revenue is expected to vault up 80.9 percent to $2.19 billion this year.

2) F-commerce. Facebook’s membership size is threatening to make the creation of a Facebook page mandatory for businesses. That’s probably a good thing. Brands can not only use Facebook to interact with potential and existing customers, but they can see their interactions broadcast to friends of their clients, too. Throw in the fact that Facebook’s showing signs of morphing into a commerce platform and people may never have to leave Facebook to accomplish everything they want to online; from learning about products to actually buying them on Facebook.com. No longer will we have e-commerce, we’ll have f-commerce.

3) Innovation station. One of the biggest complaints institutional investors have about Google is the fact that they’ve failed to radically innovate in recent years. The company’s relied on a string of acquisitions (YouTube, AdMob, Aardvark, etc.) to add to revenue growth, but they’ve stumbled while trying to find ways to keep consumers on their own pages with in-house initiatives.

Facebook, on the other hand, is the Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) of the internet. The company’s consistently innovating in ways that change how we spend time online. From gaming to commenting on non-Facebook pages to a rumored integration with Skype’s video chat and the use of cash credits for the purchase of virtual goods, Facebook’s expanding the scope and functionality of the site in new ways. The company’s refusal to stop innovating could be its biggest asset – one that will hopefully help it avoid the fate of MySpace.

Still not sold? Click for our recent post Five reasons to buy stock in a Facebook IPO.

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Will we ever see a SINA Weibo IPO?

One of the biggest growth stories out of China right now is SINA Corporation’s (NASDAQ:SINA) Twitter-like micro-blogging site, Weibo. Rumors surfaced during Q2 2010, that SINA might spin off Weibo (pronounced Way-Bwah) with a $100 million investment from search giant Baidu.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) and B2B giant Alibaba. Such a move would turn Weibo into an independent company and likely fill the company’s coffers on the strength of a speculative IPO.

The odds of that happening seem scant, though. SINA’s counting on Weibo to fuel the company’s growth. Known predominantly as a Web portal company similar to Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO), SINA’s been focusing on transforming itself into a social networking site that can tap into a network of outside app developers.

“Weibo is the best opportunity for Sina to transform into an Internet platform,” Ma Yuan, a Beijing-based analyst with Bocom International Holdings Co, told PeopleDaily.com last week. “It is becoming the next killer application on the Internet and mobile phones.”

It’s undeniable, though, that a Weibo IPO would draw lots of attention – and probably lots of dollars. With an estimated 120 million users, Weibo still trails Twitter by some 50 million accounts, but the size of China’s Internet market leaves ample room for growth.

SINA’s shares have priced in a $2 billion valuation on Weibo, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Catherine Leung. In Leung’s mind, that valuation’s steep, as Goldman downgraded SINA’s shares from Buy to Neutral.

I’m not sure I agree. The recent news that Twitter raised capital on valuations around $9 billion makes SINA’s stock look attractive.

Weibo currently dominates China’s micro-blogging industry controlling 87 percent of the market share in the niche. It operates much like Twitter, allowing users to post to the site online or via text message. Posts are limited to 140 characters, as they are on Twitter, but Chinese characters typically allow users to express more with fewer characters. Weibo’s also made significant improvements on Twitter’s model by allowing users to post replies to Weibo “tweets” and upload video and images.

SINA acts surprised when pressed on rumors that Weibo might spin off and IPO on its own. Pen Shaobin, VP of SINA and GM at SINA Weibo, denied rumors that Baidu and Alibaba are looking to invest in Weibo: “It is pure rumor,” he was quoted as saying on DoNews.com.

Interestingly, there was no mention or denial of an IPO in Weibo’s future, but I just don’t see it happening. It’d be like Apple spilling off its iPad division. Weibo’s too integral to SINA’s future to be sold off for a lump sum when the future gains look so promising. Don’t set aside cash waiting for a Weibo IPO, buy SINA shares instead. You’ll probably be better off.

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Top three best China tech stocks for 2011

The Chinese tech stock sector is one of the few that seemed unfazed by inflationary fears in 2010. This year, too, looks promising for Chinese tech stocks, particularly on the heels of an enthusiastic 150-page dossier Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) produced in an attempt to predict where the Chinese economy will be in 2015.

Across all sectors in China, Credit Suisse sees e-commerce out-performing all other sectors over the next four years. Indeed, the company expects China’s e-commerce market to more than quadruple to $311 billion by 2015, Forbes reports. That would make the Chinese e-commerce market as big as the U.S. e-commerce market.

The biggest beneficiary of that growth will be Taobao, an e-commerce site that’s part of the privately held Jack Ma empire (aka as the Alibaba Group). Despite the fact that shares in Taobao are as-yet unlisted, the company still tops my list of the top three best China tech stocks for 2011:

1) Taobao.com. Alibaba’s Taobao CFO told Reuters last week that the company has “no IPO plans for now,” but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do decide to IPO by the end of the year. Taobao currently controls 75 percent of all e-commerce transactions in China, according to 247WallSt.com, and the company’s serious about expanding its influence. Along with Alibaba, Taobao’s dumping $3 billion to $4.5 billion into a warehouse network that will make shipping throughout the country more efficient. If shares in Taobao or the Alibaba Group don’t IPO this year, there’s still an interesting play on the company: Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) owns a 39 percent stake in Alibaba.

2) E-Commerce China Dangdang, Inc. (NYSE:DANG). Dangdang is the smallest of the four major e-commerce sites in China (behind Taobao, Tencent’s Paipai and 360buy.com). The company controls just 0.7 percent of China’s online transactions, but their recent IPO in the U.S. should give them plenty of ammo to target a larger market share. Dangdang planned to use $25 million to $30.0 million from its IPO to broaden the company’s product categories; $25 million to $30.0 million to expand fulfillment capabilities; and $25.0 million to $30.0 million to enhance its technology infrastructure. The company appears to be closely following Amazon.com’s growth in the U.S. After starting as a bookseller, they’re now expanding into other higher-margin product areas.

3) SINA Corporation (USA) (NASDAQ:SINA). No stranger to the market, SINA Corporation had its IPO more than a decade ago. After tumbling to $1.56 per share during depths of the Dotcom bust, shares have climbed 4,900 percent to $78 per share. The Web portal company had a great 2010, returning more than 100 percent as the company has shown a consistent ability to innovate and expand its offerings. SINA launched a Twitter-like microblog site, Sina Weibo, in 2009 that’s helped www.sina.com.cn grow to be the fourth most-visited Web site in China, according to Alexa.com. The company also offers streaming video, online games, email services, Web search and news. Best of all, SINA’s EPS rose more than 45 percent during each of the first three quarters in 2010.

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How to invest in the Alibaba Group IPO before the IPO

I’ve slowly started accumulated shares in what I see as the most under-valued tech stock in America: Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ:YHOO). It’s not that I like Yahoo’s business model, but rather I like all the Asian pots that the company has its fingers in. Indeed, Yahoo’s locked away a 40 percent stake in what may be the hottest Internet property in the world right now: Alibaba Group.

A privately owned Web giant in China, Alibaba Group operates in just about every high-growth tech area in the country from cloud computing to payment processing (think Paypal), to online retail and international trade Web sites. The company also publishes Taobao.com, an eBay-like auction site that’s China’s third most-visited Web site, and an online classifieds site (similar to Craigslist) in Koubei.com.

As I wrote earlier, one writer at Fool.com values Yahoo’s Alibaba stake alone at more than Yahoo’s current market cap of $21.6 billion. Icing on the cake? Yahoo’s still the third most-visited Web site in the U.S. and the fourth most-visited Web site in the world. Revenue and net income declined at Yahoo during Q3, but analysts are expecting a better showing in Q4 with estimates around $0.22 per share.

No matter how uncertain the company’s future is, though, there’s no denying Yahoo’s got an incredible tech portfolio. And with rumors swirling that Alibaba Group may IPO later this year, Yahoo could cash in on what may be its best investment of all time. Buying shares in Yahoo, then, offers investors back-door access to a stake in Alibaba Group. And that’s worth as much as Yahoo is all on its own.

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Three reasons to buy Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) in 2011

After a rocky year of trading, Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) shares finished 2010 with a loss of nearly 1 percent. Why buy into the tech company in 2011? Here are three compelling reasons to consider:

1) Yahoo owns 40 percent of one of the hottest tech properties in China in the Alibaba Group. Not only does the Alibaba Group own Taobao.com, a consumer-to-consumer online retail site that’s similar to eBay.com, they also run cloud computing services, a Paypal-like online payment gateway in Alipay, and a classified service in Koubei.com among other businesses. At least one writer at Fool.com values Yahoo’s Alibaba stake alone at more than Yahoo’s current market cap of $21.6 billion.

2) Yahoo owns 34.5 percent of Yahoo! Japan – a stake that’s worth at least $7 billion on top of the $20 billion+ that the company owns in the Alibaba Group. Yahoo.co.jp is the most-visited Web site in Japan, and it’s the 17th most-visited Web site in the world, per Alexa.com.

3) Yahoo is starting to look like a takeover target. The company’s stake in the Asian tech market has private equity investors and large American tech companies like eBay salivating. Acquiring Yahoo would not only give private equity or a large American tech company a foothold in Asia, but it would also give them control over what remains one of the most-visited Web sites in the U.S. People seem to forget that Yahoo remains the No. 3 Web site in the U.S. and the fourth most-visited Web site in the world.

While it may not have the glitz and glamor of other tech companies, Yahoo’s assets make it one of the most attractive tech stocks in the U.S. By the time investors realize it, it just might be too late.

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Five reasons to invest in a Groupon IPO

I’m torn on Groupon’s reported IPO late in 2011 or early 2012 – especially now that it’s looking like Facebook could IPO in 2011, too. Of the two, my money would be on Facebook, but I’d seriously consider laying down some cash on a Groupon IPO. Here are five reasons why:

1) Groupon shot down buyout bids of $2 billion (from Yahoo!) and $6 billion (from Google) this year alone. That haughtiness shows that Groupon’s leadership knows they’ve tapped into a very special market with lots of room for growth.

2) Groupon’s expects sales of more than $500 million this year, according to Bloomberg. Not bad for a company that’s barely two years old!

3) Groupon has more than 35 million registered users, and they’re users who are in the habit of spending money at local restaurants and businesses. As that database of users grows, so too will Groupon’s ability to target ads to specific users and types of users based on their past buying habits.

4) Groupon’s valuation estimates have shot up more than 400 percent since April. That type of growth just doesn’t come around often. As the business expands into new domestic markets and around the globe, Groupon should be able to keep generating fresh sales even as companies like Twitter struggle to find viable revenue options.

5) Groupon produces results for local business owners – at least according to Groupon. Groupon claims that 90 percent of their “featured” local businesses ask to be featured a second time on the site. The best part of the model is that small business owners don’t have to shell out a penny up front. They make money when Groupon sells coupons. It’s a hard model to resist, even if Groupon keeps the bulk of the cash from the coupon sale.

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Why invest in silver?

Ask 10 people why you should invest in gold and silver, and you’ll probably get 10 different answers – many of which will be accompanied by a shrug. Most investors don’t understand the motivation for holding gold or silver bullion. Nonetheless, it’s been difficult to ignore... Read on.

How to Invest in Copper

Copper isn’t as glitzy or glamorous as gold or silver, but in many ways it feels safer. Since copper is regularly used in electronics, it’s consumption per person (particularly in the developed world) has been on the rise for decades. So how does one invest in copper? Read on.