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Apr

2012

Silver Wheaton (SLW) undervalued by nearly 30 percent?

by Fred Marion

I like to think of Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE:SLW) as the Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) of the mining industry. Both companies make mounds of money skimming profits off the labor of others.

Apple takes a cut of music, app and book sales on its various devices. Silver Wheaton makes money via a process known as silver streaming. In a word, they loan giant mounds of cash to companies developing new mines, then they get that money back in the form of cheap silver when the borrowers gets their mines operational. Often, these arrangements can stretch more than a decade into the future.

So long as silver prices stay high, then, Silver Wheaton’s profits do, too. In fact, one site thinks Silver Wheaton’s shares are undervalued by nearly 30 percent. Trefis values SLW at $40.57 a share.

“(Silver Wheaton’s business model) gives it an edge over the conventional mining companies as it does not incur any kind of operational losses in volatile market conditions,” Trefis wrote recently in a post on Forbes. “Since the company does not own any of the mines, it does not incur any operational and capital costs associated with the production. Moreover, it is not as much exposed to political risks as conventional miners are.”

All told, Silver Wheaton has 14 active silver purchase agreements and two purchase agreements for other precious metals including gold. Silver Wheaton’s most important stream comes from Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG), which had its first full year of silver production at the Peñasquito mine in Mexico in 2011.

The Peñasquito mine alone accounts for nearly 25 percent of Trefis’ price target on Silver Wheaton. “It is estimated that the mine will supply Silver Wheaton an average of 7 million ounces annually for the next 22 years,” Trefis writes. That’s a lot of silver, and Silver Wheaton’s cash costs for that metal will be just $3.93 per ounce (per the company’s year-end production numbers).

Overall, Silver Wheaton’s cash costs for silver in 2011 stood at $4.09. That same year, silver prices averaged $35.12 an ounce.

2012 is proving to be less predictable. And that extreme volatility could drive investors toward solid, more-established companies like Silver Wheaton. Because Silver Wheaton’s business model distributes risk across more than a dozen companies in jurisdictions around the world, investors can rest assured that SLW will be able to weather even extreme silver price shocks.

For icing on the cake, Silver Wheaton shares are yielding 1.26 percent. A limited downside and lots of upside make the current weakness in the mining sector look like a buying opportunity in Silver Wheaton.

Like this post? Check out our brand new book The Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks to uncover more great junior miners that analysts may have missed.

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Posted in mining stocks, precious metals, silver stocks | No Comments »

May

2011

3 reasons a powerful rally in silver mining stocks is overdue

by Fred Mason

In a single week of trading between May 2 and May 6, 2011, silver spot prices collapsed more than 25 percent on weak economic data, new NYMEX margin requirements and a general sense that the silver market was overheating. On top of that, public SEC filings showed that several noted hedge fund managers and silver bulls had started trimming back their silver holdings as early as February.

Even after last week’s brutal sell-off in the silver market, though, analysts remain bullish on silver mining stocks. Here are three reasons why a powerful rally in silver mining stocks is overdue:

1) The cost of production is static. Even though silver lost more than 25 percent of its value in a single week of trading, the white metal’s still up nearly 20 percent since the start of the year. “The silver companies are making very good money at $35 an ounce,” Sprott Asset Management’s Charles Oliver told Reuters last week. “They’d be making very good money at $30 and most of them would be making very good money at $25.”

Indeed, the article points out that most of the world’s largest silver mining companies report production costs between $4 and $8 an ounce. If they can turn around and sell that silver for $35 an ounce, their profit margins are enormous – even after a drop in the price of silver.

2) Consolidation on the way. The one thing that’s been missing from the 10-year bull market in precious metals has been a wave of buyouts, takeovers and consolidation in the mining space. The world’s largest mining companies are sitting on war chests full of cash, and they’ll likely target junior mining companies to ensure a steady supply of silver in the years to come.

Silver Wheaton Corp.’s (NYSE:SLW) CEO Randy Smallwood went on the record last month predicting a wave of buyouts after silver prices stabilize. Smallwood argues that small cap silver mining stocks don’t want to sell when prices are rising rapidly. The fear, of course, is that they could have gotten more money for their company and operations if they’d held out for a few more months. This steep correction in silver prices could be just the opportunity Silver Wheaton and other silver mining giants have been waiting for.

3) The fundamental trend is up. Extreme market volatility can make anyone question their reasons for investing in silver, but the long-term trend remains intact. The Federal Reserve’s continuing its inflationary monetary easing program and interest rates remain near zero. The net effect is a dollar that’s headed down.

ShadowStats.com calculates the inflation rate at 10 percent using formulas our own government used just two decades ago (before they began stripping out costs for things like food and energy from the CPI). In such an environment, holding your cash in a low-interest bank account is akin to losing 10 percent of its purchasing power every year. By contrast, silver prices are still up nearly 20 percent this year, and they’ll likely head higher by 2012. No matter what the silver price does in the near-term, though, silver miners are still making money, and they’re doing it hand over fist. One of these days, the stock market is going to catch on to that fact.

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Tags: inflation, junior mining stocks, silver mining stocks, silver price, silver price forecast, SLW
Posted in mining stocks, precious metals, silver stocks | No Comments »

May

2011

Investors tentatively move back into silver after price collapse

by Fred Mason

Silver bulls started poking their heads out of the woods yesterday after one of the worst weekly declines for the metal in decades. At one point, silver was down 30 percent in four days of trading. Yesterday, though, the selling pressing seemed to lift, and the white metal tacked on a modest gain.

Total damage for the week? Silver plunged 28 percent. That’s got some investors wondering if the tide has turned against the metal for good – particularly since some of those same investors define the start of a bear market as a 20 percent decline in prices.

After four days of panic selling, Friday finally saw inflows for silver ETFs. The iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV) rose 2.25 percent on more than twice the stock’s typical trading volume, and the Sprott Physical Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:PSLV) surged 5.6 percent.

Silver ETFs use their share price to determine how much physical silver bullion to add or sell from their holdings. Since they’re so easy to move in and out of, the products have taken a lot of heat this week for helping to intensify the plunge in metals prices – particularly since retail investors can leverage their positions in the ETFs by using margin.

“Margin calls are eating the little guys alive, forcing them to give up their dreams of a silver-coated world,” ETF analyst Carlos Alexandre at CXA Markets told the Globe and Mail.

Of course, it wasn’t just the “little guys” getting creamed by silver’s decline. The CME Group, which owns the Comex, ramped up margin requirements for silver futures traders, too. And they didn’t do it slowly. Initial margin requirements shot up twice this week and another hike to $21,600 is due on May 9. That’s more than 80 percent higher than margin requirements were just two weeks ago.

The CME, of course, insists that their margin hikes didn’t worsen or lead to the decline in silver prices. “We try to make changes in a way that we can telegraph to the market, so that participants have notice. We try to be routine and predictable and provide no surprises,” Kim Tyler, president of CME Clearing, told the Wall Street Journal.

We can’t draw a direct cause and effect conclusion, but it’s interesting to note that the CME’s margin hike went into effect after trading on Friday, April 29. When the silver spot market opened Monday, prices immediately collapsed 12 percent and kept falling through Thursday.

Turning Point?

ETFs showed signs of stabilization on Friday, and silver mining stocks did, too. The silver streaming company, Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE:SLW), rose 1.91 percent, and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (NASDAQ:SSRI) climbed 2.76 percent. Some sanity, it seems, is returning to the precious metals market. Now, the question becomes, will prices bottom out here or continue falling in the weeks and months to come?

Most analysts seem to agree that the long-term trend for silver prices is up. Some are even calling on investors to buy even more aggressively in the face of the sell-off. “This argument will be hard to resist, but should be,” GMO forecaster Jeremy Grantham wrote in a recent letter to his clients (per Mineweb). “A second commodity collapse [after the 2008 plunge] may be psychologically hard to invest in…[But] in the next decade, the prices of all raw materials will be priced as just what they are, irreplaceable.”

Whether or not this is the turning point doesn’t matter in the bigger picture. Unless the global economic picture changes dramatically, silver prices will likely test their all-time record highs again before the end of the year. In an era of global currency debasement, commodities offer one of just a few safe places to hide. As I pointed out yesterday, silver prices are still up 18 percent on the year, and I expect them to be much higher come 2012.

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Tags: PSLV, silver price, silver price forecast, SLV, SLW, SSRI
Posted in ETFs, mining stocks, precious metals, silver stocks | No Comments »

Apr

2011

Top 10 best silver mining stocks over the past six months

by Fred Mason

One of the quirks of the recent surge in silver prices is the relative underperformance of silver mining stocks. Shares in Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE:SLW) – the world’s largest silver streaming company – have fallen 2.5 percent over the past month while the price of silver has rocketed up 24 percent in the same span of time.

That makes little sense. Because silver producers have relatively stable fixed costs (outside of rising energy prices), a $1 per ounce rise in the price of silver means a multi-million dollar spike in profits. Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE:SLW), for instance, forecasts attributable production of 27 to 28 million ounces of silver this year. With silver up $10 over the past month alone, Silver Wheaton’s bottom line could balloon by $280 million this year; assuming, of course, silver prices don’t fall off precipitously by the end of the year.

If silver prices remain high, expect silver mining shares to follow them up. Here’s a look at the top 10 best-performing silver mining stocks over the past six months:

Great Panther Silver Limited (TSE:GPR)
+240 percent over the past six months: Great Panther owns and operates the Topia Mine and Guanajuato Mine, both of which are in Mexico. Production at the mines rose 15 percent year-over-year to 607,225 ounces during Q1. The company sells bullion direct to consumers via its online store.

First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSE:FR)
+228 percent over the past six months: First Majestic has increased its output nearly as fast as Great Panther. The company dug up 1,825,366 equivalent ounces of silver during Q1, a 13 percent increase over 2010. All told, First Majestic expects to produce 7.5 million ounces of silver this year. The company also sells silver bullion direct to consumers online.

Endeavour Silver Corp. (TSE:EDR)
+144 percent over the past six months: Of the top three silver stocks of the past six months, Endeavour has grown its production the fastest. EDR mined 900,133 ounces of silver during Q1, up 17 percent over 2010′s numbers. Gold production was also up 33 percent, pushing revenues up 95 percent in Q1.

Alexco Resource Corp. (AMEX:AXU)
+86.6 percent over the past six months: Alexco entered production on its first mine in January, and the company hopes to yield “a minimum 2.8 million ounces of silver production in 2011″ (per AlexcoResource.com). The company’s also expanding its exploration efforts at its Keno Hill property in the Yukon.

Mag Silver Corp (AMEX:MVG)
+69.4 percent over the past six months: An exploration-stage company with rights to 100 square miles of prospective ground in Mexico, MVG got promising results from a prefeasibility study at its Juanicipio Mine, which could hold as much 46.5 ounces of silver per ton of ore (per SmallCapInvestor.com).

Five more silver mining stocks to watch

Metalline Mining Company (AMEX:MMG)
+62.8 percent over the past six months

Silvercorp Metals Inc. (NYSE:SVM)
+62.8 percent over the past six months

Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE)
+62.7 percent over the past six months

Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE:SLW)
+61.5 percent over the past six months

Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL)
+41.2 percent over the past six months

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Tags: AXU, CDE, HL, MMG, MVG, SLW, SVM, TSE:EDR, TSE:FR, TSE:GPR
Posted in mining stocks, precious metals, silver stocks | No Comments »

Apr

2011

How to short silver

by Fred Mason

There’s a party right now in precious metals. Over the past 12 months, silver prices have clocked gains of more than 150 percent. When the music stops, silver prices, which are traditionally more volatile than gold, could take a drubbing. Here are some ways to make money shorting silver should investor sentiment sour on the “devil’s metal”:

1) Inverse ETNs. The simplest way to bet against silver prices is by investing in a short silver ETF. ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (NYSE:ZSL) uses financial instruments in an attempt to return 2X the inverse of silver spot prices. If silver prices fall 1 percent, ZSL should rise 2 percent. Conversely, if silver prices rise 1 percent, ZSL should drop 2 percent. Shares in the UltraShort Silver ETF trade on the NYSE just like shares in an actual company.

2) Short the long ETFs. Don’t like being limited to a single inverse ETF? You could also profit from a silver sell-off by shorting shares in a long silver ETF. iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV) is hands down the most popular long silver ETF with nearly 30 million shares trading hands every day. Other popular silver ETFs include the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining (ETF) (NYSE:XME), which invests in silver mining shares, and the leveraged ProShares Ultra Silver (ETF) (NYSE:AGQ), which attempts to return 2X the spot price of silver.

3) Go long the dollar. It will take some remarkable tightening by the Fed to convince investors that the dollar’s future looks promising. If they adopt an aggressive plan to raise interest rates, silver prices will likely lose much of their support. At the same time, the dollar should strengthen against foreign currencies. In such an environment, a bullish bet on the dollar itself makes sense. Buying shares in the PowerShares U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP) is equivalent to going long the USD and short the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

4) Put options. Buying put options gives you the right to sell a stock at a specific price in the future. If you think the SLV is going to plummet by the end of May, you could buy put options that give you the right to sell shares in the ETF at a specific price – let’s say at $45. If the price of SLV falls below $45, you could go to the open market, buy the shares on the cheap, and re-sell them at the put option price. Incidentally, put options on the SLV spiked last week (per the Wall Street Journal) – an indication that investors are growing concerned about a silver sell-off.

5) Short the miners. Shorting the shares of specific silver mining companies could pay off. As the price of silver falls, so too will the profits miners reap. Silver explorers (companies that are yet to break ground on a mine) could be particularly vulnerable to a downdraft in silver prices. I’d caution, though, that you avoid shorting any company that could be subject to a buyout bid. Randy Smallwood, the CEO of Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE:SLW), went on the record recently predicting a wave of acquisitions when silver prices stabilize. If you’re caught shorting a company that’s bought out, your brokerage account could get cleaned out overnight.

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Tags: AGQ, options, shorting stocks, silver price, SLV, SLW, UUP, XME, ZSL
Posted in commodities, ETFs, mining stocks, precious metals, silver coins, silver stocks | No Comments »

Apr

2011

Silver Wheaton predicts mining deals once silver prices stabilize (SLW)

by Fred Mason

One thing we’re yet to see silver’s ongoing bull market is a flurry of corporate buyouts and acquisitions. One of the hallmarks of a mania, after all, is a rapid increase in the number of leveraged buyouts.

Silver Wheaton Corp.’s (NYSE:SLW) brand new CEO Randy Smallwood offered an explanation yesterday in an interview with the Financial Post: small caps are reluctant to sell out of fears silver prices could hit $50 in the coming months.

Think of it like Groupon turning down a $6 billion buyout offer from Google (NASDAQ:GOOG). Why sell for enormous sums when you stand to make even larger sums down the road? “We’ve been talking with a lot of potential partners, but they want to see some [silver price] stability,” Smallwood told the Post. “They don’t want to look stupid two months from now.”

Silver Wheaton’s biding its time, then, as it waits for prices to level off before swooping in and acquiring the “silver streaming” deals that turned it into a money-minting titan. With its streaming model, Silver Wheaton gives gold and base metal miners cash up front to fund the development of mines. In exchange, SLW gets the right to buy byproduct silver at cut-throat rates – right now, that rate’s about $3.90 an ounce, per the Post.

Until silver prices stabilize, there aren’t many companies eager to take a loan from SLW, but that’s quite all right, Smallwood says. Silver Wheaton has the luxury of waiting. Even without any acquisitions, the company’s attributable silver production should spike 60 percent through 2015 to 43 million ounces a year.

The whole thing reminds me of Sean Parker urging Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg to take things slowly in the 2010 film, The Social Network.

“A million dollars isn’t cool,” Parker says. “You know what’s cool? A Billion Dollars.” By refusing to sellout for relatively small sums, Facebook’s since morphed into a multi-billion dollar company that sprawls across most of the globe.

It’s hard to argue with Parker’s logic. The deals will come in time. The same is true for the mining industry’s unsung heroes. Why take a check today when you might get one with a few more zeros in a year?

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Tags: Facebook, GOOG, Randy Smallwood, SLW
Posted in gold, gold stocks, mining stocks, precious metals, silver coins, silver stocks, solar stocks | No Comments »

Mar

2011

How to decide when to sell silver bullion and stocks

by Fred Mason

Silver’s meteoric rise has a lot of buyers on the sidelines wondering if they’ve missed the boat. Just how high can the precious metals market climb? Silver was up more than 17 percent in the month of February alone. Driven by a falling dollar, political turmoil in the oil rich Middle East and ongoing money-printing by the Federal Reserve, silver’s started off strongly in March, too.

Identifying a top in any market is difficult, but it’s important to look at metals from a historical context when trying to decide when to sell your silver bullion or stocks. The last major bull market in precious metals ran nine years from November of 1971 to January 1980.

“Many people don’t realize this, but silver rose 3,646 percent (during the 1970s),” Jeff Clark, the editor of Big Gold, tells The Daily Crux. “If you were to apply the same percentage rise to our current bull market, silver would climb another 500% from here, and the price would hit $160 an ounce. Those are just numbers, but it shows that we have an established precedent for the price to go much higher.”

Clark argues that fundamentals will ultimately determine the silver price – unless, of course, we enter a precious metals mania. That’s when identifying a top in the market gets particularly difficult. Even in a mania, prices don’t rise in a straight line; they tend to get even more volatile.

Still, there are a few cues you can look for to help spot a mania-driven top in prices. “I don’t think it stops until SLV, the silver ETF, is a favorite of the fund managers… until Silver Wheaton is a market darling of the masses… until Pan American Silver is Wall Street’s top pick for the year,” Clark says. “That’s when I’ll be looking for the end of this silver bull market.”

We’re not there yet. More importantly, the fundamentals for silver haven’t changed. Food inflation’s rampant abroad, the Fed’s still printing money, European banks haven’t found their footing, unemployment’s stagnant and the housing market could fall further before it stabilizes. So long as a clouds hang over the economy, silver will likely retain its shine.

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Tags: PAAS, silver, silver bullion, silver price forecast, SLV, SLW
Posted in commodities, gold, gold stocks, mining stocks, precious metals, silver coins, silver stocks | No Comments »

Sep

2010

Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) moves higher on Morningstar’s list of top-performing mutual funds

by Fred Mason

The Tocqueville Gold Fund has edged out the PIMCO Real Estate Real Return Strategy A (PETAX) mutual fund for the No. 2 spot on Morningstar’s top mutual fund performers YTD. That puts it behind only the Dynamic Gold and Precious Metals I (DWGOX) mutual fund – another gold-focused fund that’s returned some 50 percent YTD. The Tocqueville Gold Fund has returned just shy of 36 percent YTD, and here’s a look at its Top 10 biggest holdings as of Aug. 31, 2010:

Holding	% of Total Assets	Ticker
Physical Gold	7.2%	n/a
Osisko Mining Corporation	6.2%	TSE:OSK
Randgold Resources Limited – ADR.	4.5%	NASDAQ:GOLD
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.	4.4%	NYSE:IVN
Eldorado Gold Corp (pvt)	4.1%	NYSE:EGO
Andean Resources	4.0%	TSE:AND
IAMGOLD Corporation	3.8%	NYSE:IAG
Silver Wheaton Corp (pvt)	3.6%	NYSE:SLW
Newmont Mining Corporation	3.5%	NYSE:NEM
Goldcorp, Inc.	2.9%	NYSE:GG

Compare their holdings with Dynamic Gold and Precious Metals I (DWGOX) mutual fund, and you’ll see Tocqueville Gold Fund’s more conservative – although there are quite a few overlaps. Namely, both funds count the following stocks in their Top 10 holdings:

Osisko Mining Corporation (TSE:OSK)
Eldorado Gold Corp (NYSE:EGO)
Andean Resources (TSE:AND)

Top five mutual funds returns in 2010

Tags: EGO, GG, GOLD, IAG, IVN, NEW, SLW, TSE:AND, TSE:OSK
Posted in AMEX, gold stocks, mutual funds, precious metals | No Comments »

Sep

2010

Silvercorp Metals Inc. (NYSE:SVM): The Most Under-Bought Silver Stock on the Market?

by Fred Mason

All signs appear to be pointing to a bull market in metals as gold finished off a remarkable August, where it surged from $1,180 to $1,245 per ounce. Silver’s ride was less consistent. The metal rose from $18 to just under $19 per ounce, but it did most of it’s moving in the last week of the month.

With inflation fears held at bay by fear of a double-dip recession, you would think that investors would have give up on precious metals all together, but that’s not the case. Gold’s chart (see below) looks like it’s in the heart of a trend that will likely steepen once inflation becomes a reality.

That brings us to one of my favorite stocks: Silvercorp Metals Inc. (NYSE:SVM). Trading at a P/E ratio of 26.85, Silvercorp would be appropriately valued if the threat of inflation didn’t appear to be around the corner. Throw that in the mix, and the Chinese metal producer could look like it’s trading at bargain prices a year from now. Indeed, the stock was recently upgraded by BMO Capital Markets, and it looks and heads and shoulders better than its competitors Silver Wheaton Corp. (NYSE:SLW), which is trading at a P/E of 42 and Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ:PAAS), which is trading at a P/E of 28.

Even better than the upgrade? Silvercorp’s gross profit surged to $26.5 million in the quarter ending June 30. That’s better than the company has done in the past four quarters, and the stock maintained its dividend of $0.02 per share. That’s good for a 1 percent yield on top of any appreciation the stock might see. If inflation does hit, expect to see this stock around its May peak of just under $9 per share.

Tags: PAAS, SLW, SVM
Posted in gold, gold stocks, NASDAQ, NYSE, precious metals, trading stock | No Comments »

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