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Top 10 silver price predictions for 2013

Posted by Alejandro Guillú Mendoza.

Many people around the world want to know the answer to the question, “Where is silver going?”

I invested several hours browsing the Internet searching for answers to save you time and money (because time is money, after all). Have another financial question? Drop me a line. Please don’t ask me where your lost kitten is or why she left you. Ask me about topics that can make you money, like silver!

Here are my findings on the latest silver price predictions for 2013, 2014 and beyond. The prices are sorted from low to high:

1) $26 Barclays according to CommodityOnline

Barclays believes strong production growth in mining will knock silver prices down and keep them low in 2013. “We expect it to grow to 25.2kt in 2013, with the slowdown in output from Australia and Europe being offset by strong growth across South America and Asia. We expect modest growth from the major producers, with Mexico retaining its pole position.”

2) $30-$32 Neil Meader (Head of Precious Metals Research and Forecast) according to Forbes

“For the moment, we would expect to see a continuation of the price volatility that we’ve seen of late.

“The unknown for the longer term is inflation.”

“It would be wrong to assume that a year-on-year price fall automatically presages an end to the multi-year rally; that occurred in 2009 and yet prices (based on the annual average) then more than doubled in just two years.”

3) $31 Deutsche Bank

The bank lowered its forecast last month 16.5% to $31 according to Fox because the demand for stocks over commodities is rising and the growth in the United States of America is improving. The 2014 forecast was also significantly reduced.

Excluding major banks currently in the red. Deutsche Bank is the fifth least profitable major bank in the world with barely $400 million in profits. It appears they are no longer qualified to give financial advice to anybody. Perhaps they should hire me. I can easily turn a profit of $40 million. I am just a regular guy. They have 100,000 employees.

4) $33 HSBC

The bank increased its target for silver from $32 based on four factors driving prices higher: industrial demand, investor appetite, strong coin and bar purchases and a bottoming out of jewelry demand according to the Wall Street Journal.

“Greater industrial silver consumption is one of the most compelling arguments in favor of higher prices.”

5) $34.10 BNP Paribas

The bank reduced its silver 2013 forecast a few months ago to $34.10 from $39.05 according to Reuters.

6) $35 Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is very bullish on silver and selected the precious metal as one of the Top Picks for 2013 according to BusinessWeek.

“Gold, silver and corn will outperform other raw materials next year as a weaker dollar and rising investor demand bolster precious metals while supply curbs aid grains.”

7) $38 Commerzbank according to the Wall Street Journal

Silver is “establishing itself as a precious metal with an industrial character, setting itself significantly apart from gold.”

8) $40.25 Michel O’Brien

Silver To Gain 29% in 2013 – Analysts, Traders and Investors.

“The silver market remains a very small market and this continuing global investment and store of value demand should lead to silver reaching a real record high, inflation adjusted, of over $140/oz in the coming years.”

9) $50-$60 Ge Christenson according to SilverSeek

“This is not a prediction based on wishful thinking and hope, but a best estimate based on rational analysis of data stretching back to 1975.”

“Silver (and gold) will continue to rise, doubling every 3 – 4 years, until our government manages to tame the deficits, the borrowing, and the inevitable inflation.”

10) $91 Equity Management Academy

Silver Doctors started recently in 2011 and they are visited by over 750,000 each month. The video analysis by Steve Roy is only 9 minutes long.

This was the highest forecast I could find at the time of this writing – a time when, admittedly, silver prices are extremely low. It’ll be interesting to see which of the predictions above come the closest to the truth by the end of the year.

The real reason 2013 Silver Eagles hit an all-time high in January

Because the silver investment market is so small, it’s particularly vulnerable to hype. That’s exactly what the commodities research firm CPM Group thinks is happening now as investors trumpet the “incredible” demand for silver coins in January. While the U.S. Mint did announce all-time sales records for 2013 silver eagles in January (with 7,498,000 coins sold), CPM Group argues that’s just a hold-over of pent-up demand from earlier in the winter.

“All of this talk about a shortage of silver is irrational and not supported by readily available market data,” CPM Group says in its latest report.

Specifically, the company cites worries over the Fiscal Cliff in November and December as driving up demand for American Eagles. Since the Mint sold-out of coins in both November and December, that demand rolled forward into January driving sales up to record levels.

CPM Group’s been painting a pretty bleak picture of silver prices going forward. The commodities research firm believes prices will head lower over the next decade (through 2022) rather than higher as most silver price prognosticators would have you believe.

I’m not ready to make that assumption, but there are lessons to be learned from CPM Group. Mainly that the U.S. Mint isn’t the best gauge of market demand for silver. It’s too easily overwhelmed by demand, and that pushes sales forward into months when demand could have otherwise been low.

Silver will surge 400% through 2016, Williams says

Ok. I’ll admit I’m not entirely sure who Ian Williams is. This UK article describes him simply as “a City-based asset fund manager.” Still, he’s rather brazen in his predictions for the white metal.

Silver is destined to enter a “sustained bull market” in the coming weeks. Mr Williams believes the price of silver will increase fivefold between now and 2016, with a peak expected in the third quarter of 2015.

Good news for silver bulls if Mr. Williams can be trusted. More at livecharts.co.uk.

Four reasons to be bullish on silver in 2013

Global Resource Specialist Peter Krauth of Money Morning believes silver prices could hit $54 an ounce in 2013. Here are four reasons why he’s so bullish on the metal:

  1. An expected normalization in the gold-silver ratio
  2. President Obama’s prediliction for money-printing
  3. Hard asset investor demand as paper currencies continue to slide
  4. Growing industrial demand

More at ETFDailyNews.

Silver prices setting up for “trade of a lifetime”?

The ferocity of the collapse in silver prices last week leads me to two conclusions: 1) the threat of economic collapse in Europe is very real, and we’re heading for a wholesale sell-off in all asset classes: stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities, etc.; or 2) the market got spooked, and we’re setting up for what could be the “trade of a lifetime” in silver.

I didn’t label it the “trade of a lifetime,” but that’s what Benzinga columnist George Maniere’s thinking.

“Either this is a total capitulation of the silver market which I can only conclude means even weaker global growth as silver has many industrial uses, or it is a classic head fake to shake out anyone that had an inkling of going long,” Maniere writes.

He goes on to argue that tomorrow could be the tipping point either way. If the IMF and the ECB fail to act on a plan to save Greece’s economy, expect selling in stocks and – quite likely – silver, too.

While many investors look at silver as a hedge against inflation and economic malaise, the fact is, its price is influenced heavily by industrial activity. When the world economic engine slows down, prices for silver fall with it.

Industrial applications for silver make up the single largest demand segment for the white metal. Indeed, industrial demand grew by 20 percent last year to 487 million ounces (per the Silver Institute). Coins and investment demand make up less than half of the world-wide industrial demand for silver.

Silver’s a very close cousin, but gold is the asset of last resort. Gold is the vehicle that the richest organizations in the world – central banks, hedge funds and mutual funds – turn to when they’re trying to preserve their wealth.

That’s not to say I’m counting silver down and out. In fact, I took a long position in the ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (NYSE:AGQ) earlier this morning. Why? I’m just not convinced that Europe’s ready to let Greece default. On top of that, last week’s selling in the silver market was just too brutal. Silver futures contracts plunged by 18 percent in a single day. That was the biggest dollar-drop for the metal in more than 30 years.

All told, silver prices were down nearly 30 percent last week, and AGQ – the leveraged ETF I like to use to invest in silver – is down 43 percent in the past three trading days alone. As I wrote yesterday in my post “Can silver prices bounce back in October after 27 percent decline?,” part of today’s sell-off was no-doubt courtesy of the CME Group’s announcement that it was raising silver margin requirements by 16 percent (a move that took effect at the close of trading today).

If Europe’s banking officials pull out yet more bailout cash for Greece, it may be enough to stave off more panic in the markets. It would likely set up a whipsaw recovery in silver prices, and that’s what I’m banking on. Lift the gloom enough for investors to start thinking about inflation again, and this trade in silver just might be the trade of a lifetime.

If, on the other hand, Europe fails to act and we get any more negative economic news, I just might have to sell my stake in AGQ and take Maniere’s advice: investing in the ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPXU). Buying shares in SPXU isn’t just a bet that the S&P 500 is going down, it’s a triple-leveraged bet. That means that for every one percent the S&P declines, SPXU should go up by three percent. That’s what pushed the ETF up more than 20 percent last week.

As long as you stay fluid with you investments in the coming days by betting against the S&P (if Europe fails to act) or going long silver (if Europe does act) you might not have the trade of a lifetime, but I suspect there’s plenty of money to be made.

Related

Silver price manipulation case narrows in on JPMorgan; drops HSBC for now

A new wrinkle in the silver price manipulation lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) has dropped the spotlight off HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE:HBC) for now. The fresh lawsuit amendment, which was filed last Tuesday, now names JPMorgan as the sole defendant in the case (per the Wall Street Journal).

Here’s what we know: a lawsuit filed by individual silver investors alleged that JPMorgan and HSBC amassed massive short positions in silver futures between 2008 and 2010, then reaped the rewards as silver prices declined in the face of the large short positions. The new move drops allegations against HSBC, as investors have entered into a tolling agreement with the London bank.

Tolling agreements give both sides in the case time to negotiate a settlement. Should those talks crumble, HSBC could be re-added to the lawsuit. A tolling agreement certainly isn’t an admission of guilt on HSBC’s part, but it’s a clear signal that they don’t want to go to trial (perhaps to avoid the massive legal fees, the bad press, or because they fear they’d be on the losing side of the case). What bothers me about the agreement is the fact that we may never know whether HSBC was truly involved in attempting to manipulate the price of silver – especially if JPMorgan enters into a similar agreement in the future.

New numbers in the amended lawsuit allege that JPMorgan’s shorts pushed silver prices down 12 percent in a single day – a move that, if true, made the bank $220 million.

All told, more than 43 separate silver price manipulation lawsuits were filed against JPMorgan and HSBC (per Reuters). Those lawsuits were eventually combined into a class action lawsuit.

“The complaint alleges that HSBC and J.P. Morgan made large, coordinated trades, among other things, to artificially lower the price of silver at key times when the precious metal should have been trading at higher levels,” the law firm Girard Gibbs LLP writes on its web site. “By depressing the price of silver, the class action alleges that the defendants made substantial illegal profits while harming investors and restraining competition in the COMEX silver futures market.”

Due to it’s small size and relative lack of liquidity, the silver market has often been the target of price manipulation (see my post Silver Thursday, the Hunt Brothers, and the collapse of a precious metal for more). But there’s also a tendency for the media to brush off reports of manipulation in any markets – particularly emotionally-charged markets like precious metals. This lawsuit could help bring visibility to a problem that’s lost a lot of money for a lot of people. Let’s just hope it makes it to trial.

Related

How to buy silver coins cheaply

1) Buy in bulk. If you want to get the best possible price on silver bullion coins, consider stashing your cash, waiting for a pull-back in prices and buying a bulk lot. Some web sites offer reduced pricing for bulk silver coin purchases. In the image below, I’ve taken a sample of GoldSilver.com‘s bulk pricing rates for Silver American Eagles as of Sept. 6, 2001:

As you can see above, if you purchase 10,000 silver American Eagles, you stand to save more than $20,000. Not bad! If you don’t have the cash to buy silver coins in bulk, consider partnering up with friends or family to place a larger order than you could on your own.

2) Buy direct from third-party sellers. eBay and Amazon have become two of the most popular places for consumers to sell silver coins directly to other consumers. Prices can be hit-or-miss depending on who’s selling when. As of this writing, for instance, Amazon sellers have listed silver American Eagles for as low as $50. That’s pretty high compared to some specialty online coin vendors, so you’ll want to check Amazon and eBay frequently. When sellers list coins at low prices, they get snatched up quickly.

3) Roam your local flea market. While it’s hit-or-miss, you might come across great deals at garage sales, community sales and flea markets. Most flea markets have specialty coin booths that are set up year-round, but you’ll probably find better deals if you stumble across an individual who just happened to set up for the weekend and has a coin or two to sell (along with a whole lot of junk from his or her garage). For most investors, this approach isn’t worth the effort, but if you’re already at a sale, it doesn’t hurt to keep your eyes open. If you stumble across a silver coin you’d like to buy, don’t be afraid to haggle.

4) Do a search on Google Products. I’m always surprised at the number of people who don’t know about or use Google Product Search when doing comparison shopping. The service lets you type in a keyword (like “Silver American Eagle 1 Oz. Coins”), and it’ll show you list prices for that product from vendors around the Internet. It’s a great place to find sellers you might not have otherwise discovered.

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Time to buy Silvercorp Metals (SVM)?

NOTE: Information released today (Sept. 13, 2011) at AlfredLittle.com negates much of the information here. It sounds like it might be time to dump SVM.

Sometimes allegations of fraud are a good thing, and that might be the case for Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (NYSE:SVM). Shares are starting to look like a bargain. The Vancouver-based silver mining company, which does most of it’s mining in China, got slammed on Friday falling more than 10 percent on four times the stock’s average trading volume.

Why did Silvercorp plunge?

On Friday, Silvercorp announced a dramatic increase in short positions in the company’s stock. Over the past two months, 23 million shares (fully 13 percent of the outstanding shares!) were sold short. On top of that, the company got its hand on an anonymous letter that was addressed to numerous governmental agencies and media sources. The letter was purportedly written by an investment firm that was shorting the stock, and the same firm said it planned to publicize wrongdoings at the company – namely a $1.3 billion accounting fraud.

Three reasons to invest in Silvercorp despite the allegations

You’ve got to make your own call on whether now’s the time to buy into Silvercorp, but I like what the company’s done. It’s fighting back aggressively against short-sellers and the anonymous firm that’s accused the company of wrongdoing. Here are three reasons why I’m still a bull:

1) They’re facing the allegations head on. First, Silvercorp proactively sent out a press release acknowledging the short sales and anonymous letter. In it, Silvercorp provides links to documents that refute the allegations against the company.

2) They’re going after the bad guys. Silvercorp’s set up an independent task force to find out who authored the anonymous letter. The task force has some heavyweights on board, too, including Canada’s former ambassador to China, Earl Drake. If they can uncover the source of the letter, Silvercorp has vowed to pursue “all legal options” in multiple jurisdictions to recover damages caused by the allegations.

3) They’re still buying back their stock. Silvercorp apparently thought the company’s shares were a bargain at roughly $8 a share when they first announced their stock buyback plans in June. On the heels of the anonymous allegations that surfaced on Friday, the stock dipped as low as $7.08 a share, and Silvercorp’s looking at the price move as another great opportunity to buy more shares.

“While we are fighting these manipulation schemes, we will continue with our ongoing share buyback program, increase our investor relations efforts, and continue to focus on growth through exploration, acquisitions, and mine development,” CEO Dr. Rui Feng said in the press release. “We are pleased with our current operations and look forward to reporting another profitable quarter.”

Of course, there’s still a lot of uncertainty surrounding accounting practices in China (just take a look at my recent story on Puda Coal), but this one has the feel of a rogue smear campaign. Once the market regains its senses, Silvercorp could soar to catch back up with the jump in silver prices we’ve seen of late. That’s good news for investors with the fortitude to stay long.

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Gold prices take biggest plunge in 30 years; CME hikes gold margin requirements

Gold bullion prices collapsed more than $100 an ounce yesterday. According to Reuters, that’s the largest single-day drop in nominal dollars since 1980, and the largest one-day percentage drop (at more than 4 percent) since 2008.

Markets are jumpy right now. Investors are positioning themselves for an announcement from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday morning. Bernanke will speak from his annual pow-wow with several others central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. While many were anticipating Bernanke would announce more economic stimulus (just as he did last year after the Jackson Hole meeting), that notion seems to have gained a lot less traction in recent days. That’s lent some strength to an otherwise ailing dollar and pushed investors into riskier trades – particularly equities.

One trader told Bloomberg that he started getting really nervous about gold prices when he heard that the total value of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) had surpassed the value of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY). SPY’s been the world’s largest ETF since 1993. Seeing it kicked to the No. 2 slot in favor of gold was a sign that perhaps stocks were underbought.

When it rains, it pours

The CME Group doused even more water on the price of gold after it announced late last night that it was raising gold margin requirements 27 percent after trading on Aug. 24. The move follows a 22 percent margin requirements hike on Aug. 11. If gold prices bounce back after today’s collapse, I wouldn’t rule out even higher margin requirements.

When the CME started raising margin requirements on silver this spring, they didn’t stop until the market had given up a month’s worth of gains. During one nine-day period late in April, the CME raised silver margin requirements by 84 percent.

One of the big drivers for equities yesterday, and a downward force on gold prices were better than expected numbers on durable goods orders. Orders for things like airplanes, automobiles and business equipment rose 4 percent last month. That was more than twice as much as expected. And that bit of good news overshadowed the bad: namely, that business spending fell 1.5 percent last month. That’s the biggest decline in corporate outflows since January, and it’s an indication that businesses started tightening the reins on their pocketbooks over fears of a double-dip recession.

The arguments for investing in gold (reference my post “Why invest in gold“) have gotten an added boost thanks to inflation not just in the U.S. but around the world. The Swiss Central Bank has even considered pegging its currency to the Euro so its export market can remain competitive. That leaves few safe havens for investors and it’s even pushed up the value of U.S. treasuries in the wake of a downgrade for U.S. debt. Investors invest not just to make money, but to protect the capital they’ve already accumulated. With the dollar expected to remain weak through at least 2013 (when the Fed may begin raising interest rates from historic lows), I don’t think we’ve seen the last of the gold story. This is just a temporary bump in the road.

How to short gold with ETFs

ETFs make it easy to bet against the yellow metal. Investors can short the flagship SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) (which would have been good for a 3.3 percent gain yesterday), or go long on the PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (NYSE:DZZ), which spiked 10.3 percent yesterday. GLD holds physical gold deposits in a London bank, while DZZ attempts to return twice the inverse of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index. If the index goes down, DZZ should go up twice as much as the index’s decline.

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Insane gold and silver price predictions for 2011

The arguments for investing in gold and silver grow louder every day. While the official Consumer Price Index pegs the inflation rate at 3.56 percent, there’s evidence it’s actually more than three times as high. John Williams at ShadowStats.com calculates the inflation rate using the methodology in place in 1980. According to his numbers, the CPI is actually around 11 percent.

That’s a harrowing figure considering that the average money market account currently pays 0.27 percent in interest (per Money-Rates.com). That situation has produced an environment where no one’s quite sure how high silver and gold prices can go (not that a lot of market analysts, writers and bloggers aren’t trying to puzzle out the answer).

Insane silver price predictions

Jason Hommel at SilverStockReport.com has a long-term price target of $500 an ounce on silver.

“Silver has gone up, now, from $4.15/oz. in 2003 to $40.87/oz. this week in the fall of 2011. Silver is going up by 31%, on average, per year, over the last 8.5 years,” Hommel writes. “Silver will likely continue to go up by 30% per year, or more, for at least the next decade, until silver hits about $500/oz.”

His logic? Currency creation is growing at 13 percent a year, and that leaves investors with few alternatives for protecting their capital. On top of that, the silver market is so small, Hommel argues, that even if 1 percent of U.S. money flowed into silver, the white metal could quickly spike to $600 an ounce.

Insane gold price predictions

Mike Maloney, the founder of GoldSilver.com, has made one of the most aggressive gold price predictions I’ve seen: $15,000 to $20,000 an ounce.

After getting approached by Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki, Maloney spent two-and-a-half years writing his Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver. The research process brought him to a startling realization, he says: the current bull market in precious metals is actually the death knell of fiat currencies. And it’s not just the U.S. dollar that’s doomed, he says. It’s a global breakdown of the monetary system, and there’s nowhere else investors will be able to turn that gold and silver.

“I really couldn’t care less about gold and silver,” he says. “I don’t want gold and silver. It’s just in its cycle right now. It’s a stupid lump of metal that doesn’t have cash flow or spin off dividend yields. So I don’t want gold and silver. It’s just that right now, I don’t want anything else.”

And that’s the same conclusion he’s convinced more and more Americans will make in the years to come.

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