Let’s take a look at the latest silver price predictions for 2016 as part of our Three-up and Three-down series. We’ll present three bullish arguments for silver prices and three bearish arguments as well. Then, you decide where you think silver’s headed next year.
The bullish case for silver in 2016
1) Devaluing the yuan. Earlier this year, China abruptly announced it would devalue the yuan by 2 percent against the U.S. dollar. The government wanted to spur economic activity in the People’s Republic. Instead, they spooked currency traders who started selling the yuan. In turn, that forced China to start selling some of its dollar holdings, so the country could buy its own currency. That heavy selling is putting downward pressure on the dollar. Some speculate it could lead to a considerably weaker dollar, which might encourage more investment in hard assets like gold and silver. Gaurav S. Iyer, a research analyst and editor at Lombardi Financial, speculates that the weaker dollar might push silver back toward its 2011 peak around $50 an ounce.
2) Supply strain. Most of the silver that’s mined in the world is a byproduct of mining for other metals (copper, zinc, gold and lead). Since metal prices have fallen across the board, mining companies have drastically cut expenses and lowered their production levels by shuttering some mines. Less gold, copper and zinc means less silver, too. “Take Canada, one of the world’s major silver producers, for example,” writes Michael Lombardi. “Year-to-date, silver mine production in Canada has declined by 20%.” This could lead to a silver supply crunch if the global economy starts picking up steam (as many expect it to do next year). That’s because silver’s used extensively in many high-tech products.
3) A skewed ratio. The silver-gold price ratio is north of 70. Put another way, an ounce of silver costs more than 1/70th the amount of an ounce of gold. “Over the last 40 years, the grey metal averaged a 42.8 conversion rate with gold,” Iyer writes. “History has shown that a rise in silver prices are all but guaranteed when the ratio tops 70. It’s sitting at 75 right now.” According to him, that means we could see silver prices surge 420 percent from where they are today.
The bearish case for silver in 2016
1) A strong dollar. China’s devaluing the yuan. India and the Eurozone are increasing their quantitative easing programs, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is planning to hike interest rates this year or early in 2016. All signs point to a strengthening dollar. And that negates one of the most powerful incentives to invest in silver: using it as a hedge against a dollar collapse.
2) Deflation. What will be the biggest determinant of silver prices in 2016? Whether we see inflation or deflation. Since precious metals have a finite supply, they act as a hedge against inflation (much like real estate and even stocks). When we’re in a low-inflation environment – or worse, a deflationary environment – it just doesn’t make sense to hold a large position in silver. Across the globe, signs are pointing toward deflation. Credit default swaps are rising, currencies in emerging countries are declining (a sign of slowing global growth) and the rising dollar is disproportionately punishing companies outside the U.S. If we tip toward deflation, we’re probably not going to have rising silver prices.
3) The bear market continues. I always follow momentum until that momentum is broken. Silver’s down more than 70 percent from its 2011 peak. The metal is in a bear market, and I’m not ready to call a bottom yet. Neither is JP Morgan.
Here’s their 2016 silver price prediction: “Silver prices will broadly continue their bearish trend for the coming two quarters before finding greater strength in the second half of 2016,” they said early last month. Specifically, JP Morgan is predicting silver prices will average $14.08 in Q1 of 2016 and $14.65 throughout the year.
Where do you think we’ll see silver prices in 2016?