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Posts Tagged ‘QE2’

Stock market crash looming on horizon?

The 30 percent plunge in silver prices over the past two weeks could be an early warning signal that there’s something going wrong in the markets. I’d even go so far as to say it’s starting to look like 2008 out there. That’s got a lot of investors moving into defensive positions, and that doesn’t bode well for stocks. Here are five signs that it might be time to lighten up your portfolio:

1) New margins on the CME. Changes in initial margin requirements for Comex silver futures have gotten most of the press. A series of recent hikes drove silver margins up 84 percent in just 8 days. What’s gotten slightly less press is the news that the CME Group didn’t limit their margin hikes to silver alone. Margin requirement for crude oil climbed from $6,750 to $8,438 on Tuesday, May 10. The United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE:USO) is down 12 percent since the start of the month. “Increases in margin requirements have a history of triggering selling,” David Kotok, the Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, writes at FinancialSense. Kotok noted that his fund is raising cash on the heels of the CME Group’s “game-changing” margin hikes.

2) Bullish on healthcare. It’s always a bad sign when investors start moving into healthcare stocks. Like utilities, the sector is one of few that consumers can’t cut back on when times get tight. Consider this: of the 10 S&P sectors, healthcare has performed the best this year. It’s up 14.9 percent, per Reuters. A lot of people with a lot of money apparently see signs that it’s time to get defensive.

3) The end of QE2. The Fed’s still doing its best to inject more money into the economy with QE2, but we all know that program’s due to end next month. When it does, the cash sloshing around in the stock markets could dry up quickly (just as it did at the end of QE1). Credit Suisse expects at least a 10 percent drop in equities at the end of QE2, according to Reuters. Value investor Jeremy Grantham’s calling for a 30 percent drop in stocks.

4) Weekly Leading Index. The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) is closely watched by professional traders thanks to its ability to forecast economic growth. In recent weeks, the WLI has flattened and slowly started edging downward – most recently from 6.6 percent to 6.4 percent. It’s an indication that economic growth is slowing. If regional manufacturing reports due out this week from New York and Philadelphia confirm the trend, the bears could again take the upper hand. And they just might as manufacturers suffer with higher input costs thanks to rampant energy inflation.

5) The debt ceiling debate. For all the drama surrounding the debt ceiling debate, I think Washington realizes they’re truly jeopardizing faith in the dollar. If the ceiling isn’t raised, it would be tantamount to a default on U.S. debt; something that even the most hard-line Tea Party member should realize isn’t a good thing. Even Speaker of the House, John Boehner (R-Ohio), has said as much: “They’ve pushed the date back, pushed the date back, pushed the date back. But it’s clear to me that at some point we’re going to have to raise the debt ceiling.” That should alleviate short-term fears of a bond default, and – coupled with the end of QE2 – move investors back into bonds and the dollar.

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3 reasons the rally in gold and silver prices is far from over

Silver investors got a rude awakening at the start of trading yesterday. Spot prices for the metal tumbled more than 12 percent in early-morning Asian trading on Monday. We’ve heard a lot of excuses for the manic plunge, the most prominent of which is an unexpected surge in silver margin requirements on the Comex that went into effect at the close of trading on Friday.

Regardless of the reason, precious metals investors are jittery. But I’m far from convinced the decade-long bull market in gold and silver is drawing to a close. Here are three reasons why investors should consider staying the course:

1) The fundamentals haven’t changed. Everyone knows gold and silver coins and bars don’t actually do anything. They’re pretty to look at, but they don’t pay dividends and you can’t use them to pay for gas at the local Speedway (not yet anyway). The fact that they don’t do anything, though, is what makes them valuable. Precious metals are finite. The government can’t make more.

The government can, however, print more dollars. As the total number of dollars in circulation increases, the laws of supply and demand kick in. Suddenly, those greenbacks buy less gold and silver. In dollar terms, the “value” of your gold and silver goes up.

Beginning investors understand as much, but they still argue that it’d be better to hold something else, oil perhaps, or real estate. Unfortunately, there are problems inherent in oil and real estate – particularly during periods of rapid inflation.

Think back to 2008 when oil screamed up to record highs around $140 a barrel. Prices for just about everything else started rising, too, and that ultimately ground the global economic engine to a halt. Before long, oil was trading at $40.

How about real estate? If you’ve got enough cash to buy a sprawling apartment complex, I’d recommend doing so. You could get a low-interest loan, steady returns and a fair degree of insulation from inflation (so long as you have the ability to raise your rental rates every year). If you don’t have that kind of cash, though, the costs of entry in the housing market are too high and the market too illiquid to be practical for most investors.

That leaves gold and silver. The market is small, volatile and often stomach-churning, but the barriers to entry are low, and the metals are good at what they do: acting as a store of value during periods of high inflation.

Make no mistake that inflation has arrived, either. Official numbers might peg it shy of 2 percent, but if you calculate inflation the way our government did just 20 years ago, we’re already living with double-digit inflation. That means those dollars you’ve got sitting in your bank account are shrinking … and that’s not good for anyone.

2) 10 percent inflation is just the beginning. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that they’re going to see QE2 through to the bitter end. The massive bond-buying program is slated to end in June, but that’s two more months of massive capital injections. On average, the Fed is pumping $2.5 billion into the economy every day.

$2.5 billion is a vague number that’s hard to digest, but think about the fact that the Federal government nearly shutdown three weeks ago when Congress couldn’t come to an agreement on trimming a mere $39 billion from the 2011 fiscal year budget. QE2 is pumping that much cash into the economy every two weeks!

On top of that, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated his promise to keep interest rates near zero for the “foreseeable future.” It’s all fuel for an inflationary fire that’s already smoldering. And the danger is, the Fed won’t be able to put that fire out without rapidly raising interest rates – something that would threaten to topple the U.S. into yet another recession.

3) Corrections are normal. Markets never move in a straight line. Rapid price run-ups are tempered by corrections and consolidation periods. Of course, it’s hard to remember that when you’re watching the net value of your portfolio crumple in a short-term sell-off. Rest assured, though, there are lots of long-term gold and silver bulls out there – even at the world’s biggest investment banks.

“Gold has hit our target of $1500-1600 and the long term target for next few years is $2000-3000,” Merrill Lynch analysts wrote last week (per Barron’s). “Silver should consolidate near-term as it challenges its all-time high – support is in the low $30’s. Longer-term, silver should re-challenge $50 and then target a move toward $80 (an ounce).”

What happens in the near-term is anyone’s guess. Just don’t buy the hype and get out of precious metals altogether. Gold and silver’s brightest days appear to lie ahead.

No love for gold and silver mining stocks

The next boom in gold and silver space might not be in the physical metals themselves but rather in the shares of mining companies. Silver mining stocks are up just 5 to 10 percent on average this year (per Forbes). By comparison, silver bullion’s rallied more than 43 percent since the start of the year and 171 percent over the past 12 months. Gold has trailed silver’s performance, but it’s still clocked gains of 30 percent over the past year.

Once mining companies start turning those price gains into robust earnings, sentiment toward the stocks just might change – even with all the noise and volatility in the spot market. It’s profits, after all, that do the talking. And we’d do well to listen.

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Gold-silver ratio: Is momentum shifting towards gold?

For the first time in weeks, gold noticeably out-performed silver. On Friday, New York spot silver prices fell 2.1 percent from $49 to $47.94. Gold, on the other hand, spiked powerfully from $1,539 to $1,565.70 – a gain of 1.7 percent.

Is it time to re-allocate some of your silver holdings into gold? Could we be witnessed a shift in investor sentiment? No one knows for sure, but the powerful upswing in gold prices while silver sat by languishing was enough to give me pause. Here are some possible explanations for the shift:

1) Big money is moving in. In the wake of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s reassurance that QE2 will NOT end early and that interest rates will NOT rise anytime soon, the last few vestiges of risk in the precious metals markets were removed (at least for the next two months as QE2 plays out). With more risk removed from the equation, hedge and mutual fund managers may have felt more comfortable making bets on precious metals. If that’s the case, those deep-pocketed funds tend to favor gold over the more volatile silver market.

2) Gold’s playing catch-up. Since Jan. 1, silver has rocketed up nearly 55 percent from $31 to $48 an ounce. During that same time frame, gold’s clocked gains of just 12.6 percent. With those sorts of numbers, the argument that silver prices are more subject to industrial demand starts wearing thin. According to the Silver Institute, industrial demand accounts for nearly half of the total demand for silver. If the rest of the demand for silver is coming largely from investors, you’d expect gold to be up about half as much as silver (i.e. 25 percent or more on the year). This could be a case where the silver market has gotten ahead of itself, and it’s gold’s turn to catch up.

3) Technical trading. Silver sellers came out in full force after the metal finally breached its all-time nominal high of $49.45 on Thursday. I suspect silver could have trouble climbing over that psychological barrier again. Once, it does, though, I fully expect silver to outperform gold moving forward. Let’s just call this a temporary bump in the road.

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5 reasons silver prices will spike in May

I’ll admit silver prices had me nervous before the conclusion of the FOMC meeting yesterday. Any hint from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that an interest rate rise or a premature end to QE2 was in sight could have caused a massive sell-off in the silver market.

Instead, Mr. Bernanke reiterated his insistence that inflation is tame and interest rates will remain near zero for an “extended period.” With that, the cloud of uncertainty hovering over the precious metals market was parted, and investors re-upped their holdings in gold and silver. Silver spiked $3 an ounce from an intraday low near $45 to more than $48.50 – a gain of nearly 8 percent. I expect more of the same in May, and here are five reasons why:

1) Pedal to the metal for QE2. Mr. Bernanke’s keen to avoid the mistakes Japan made during its “Lost Decade” in the 1990s. Japan embarked on its own quantitative easing then after a sharp contraction in asset prices threatened price deflation. While the idea was sound, the Fed believes Japan’s failure was in ending quantitative easing too soon. That eventually led to stagflation and more QE down the road. The U.S. won’t make the same “mistake.” Never mind the fact that no one knows for certain whether QE can create self-sustaining economic growth. Mr. Bernanke’s signaling he’ll keep forging ahead despite protestations from the Chinese, the Eurozone and scores of smaller, more inflation-vulnerable countries around the world.

Not only will the Fed see QE2 to its conclusion, its reinvesting dividends from its bonds back into the Treasurys market (what Jim Puplava at FinancialSense calls QE2.5). That means inflation’s here to stay – at least through the end of June. That’s bad for the dollar and good for silver and gold.

2) Industrial demand. It’s hard to deny that a cheap dollar is good for the economy. American exports become more competitive, which helps domestic companies generate better earnings and, in turn, leads to more hiring. So long as global economic growth doesn’t stall, silver will continue to face growing industrial demand. Some estimates claim industrial silver consumption accounts for 60 percent of total silver demand (per Forbes). Couple that with growing demand from investors, and you’ve got a commodity that’s poised to keep ripping higher (at least until high oil prices start denting global economic output).

3) The momentum trade. Inflation expectations drive the price of gold and silver. Right now, though, it’s clear that momentum’s on silver’s side. Gold’s rallied to a series of record highs since the start of the year, but it’s still up just 6.3 percent since Jan. 1. Silver on the other hand has risen more than 55 percent. That’s got a lot of writers and analysts worried that the metal’s price has went parabolic. If that is indeed the case, there could be a lot more room for the metal to run (at least through the end of QE2).

4) No price records yet. While much has been made in the media about the all-time record high of $50 an ounce for silver set in 1980, it’s important to remember that number is nominal. If we adjust silver’s record high for inflation, we get a price of $131.49 per ounce (per the Wall Street Journal). Keep in mind that silver prices were squeezed by the Hunt Brothers’ attempt to corner the market in the 1980s, but I’ve long believed that argument carries too much weight. The Hunt Brothers, after all, weren’t trying to corner the gold market, and gold prices rose nearly as dramatically in 1980. Precious metals fundamentally respond to inflation – a condition that was rampant 30 years ago. The same condition exists today, and it’ll likely get worse before it gets better.

5) Asset allocators eying precious metals. While portfolio managers have long recommended investors allocate 5 percent of their portfolios to precious metals, there are indications that professionals are steering the masses toward bigger bets on gold and silver. Anthony Welch of Sarasota Capital Strategies tells Barron’s he’s heard some advisors recommending investors allocate as much as 20 percent of their holdings in the space. If hedge fund and mutual fund managers follow suit, silver prices could indeed be at risk of climbing too fast. In the meantime, though, the skies look sunny in May.

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New silver margin requirements go into effect today

For the eighth time in the past year, the CME Group has raised silver futures margin requirements. The rules, which went into effect at the close of market yesterday, apply to dabblers in the 5,000-ounce silver futures contract. Per the new rules, the initial deposit to purchase a contract has climbed from $11,745 to $12,825. The cost for holding a contract overnight is up from $8,700 to $9,500 – nearly a 10 percent jump.

The move comes after a blistering 17 percent climb in silver prices during the course of a week. Trading stalled just shy of the $50 an ounce mark, with silver hitting an intraday high of $49.82 in Asian trading Monday. That was too far, too fast, according to the suits at the Comex, and they quickly moved to reign in volatility.

One writer called for tighter Comex margins before the news became public on Monday. On Sunday night, Dian L. Chu argued that the CME should move to increase margin requirements by 30 percent.

“With (the) gold/silver ratio setting a new 28-year low record almost everyday in April, it looks like the necessary elements are already set in motion for another horrid crash-and-burn contagion scenario,” Chu wrote.

Indeed, Chu fears any amount of tightening by the Comex might not be enough to offset a massive silver sell-off that could spill over into other commodity markets. And we’ve already seen something of a correction in the silver space. After prices hit $49.82 on Monday, they collapsed more than 8 percent in 24 hours.

A number of factors outside of the Comex’s new silver margin requirements might have been at play, however. For one, investors likely locked in prices after silver hit $49 an ounce – just $1 shy of its 31 year high. Uncertainty over the Fed’s next move has set in now, too.

We’ll have a better idea of the Fed’s plans after the Federal Open Market Committee wraps up a two-day meeting today. In an uncharacteristic move, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will address the media this afternoon. Call it a grand finale to the FOMC’s closed-door meetings. Rest assured investors and analysts will be poring over Bernanke’s words with a fine-toothed comb for any hint of future policy direction.

Most assume Bernanke will reiterate previous hints that QE2 will indeed end on time and that interest rates will remain near-zero for the foreseeable future. If we get any indication whatsoever that an interest rate hike is around the corner or QE2 will end early, yesterday’s 8 percent drop in silver prices will probably look like child’s play – and there will likely be a whole lot of margin calls on the Comex.

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Gold silver ratio pointing to higher gold prices?

In two short years, the gold:silver ratio has plummeted 62 percent from 80:1 to 30:1. That means it takes a mere 30 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. The dramatic shift of fortunes has a lot of investors and analysts saying silver’s overheating. Is it time to jump ship and swim for the golden shores? Perhaps. Here are three reasons to consider reallocating your portfolio in favor of gold:

1) ‘Mean Reversion.’ The gold:silver ratio is at 30-year lows. “Generally, relative strength relationships ‘revert to normal’ or at least move towards equilibrium over time,” writes Corey Rosenbloom at AfraidToTrade.com. Suffice it to say that a gold:silver ratio of 30 is far from normal. Over the past three decades, the gold:silver ratio has averaged somewhere between 65 and 70. Over the long haul, we’ll probably look back on today as an aberration. When the gold:silver ratio decides to revert to ‘normal,’ which we assume it will eventually, it could happen quickly. And it could happen in two quite different ways: “The mean reversion scenario suggests other outcomes such as a dramatic ‘catch-up’ rally in gold,” Rosenbloom writes, “or a ‘blow-off top’ correction down in silver.” Either way points to gold as a better option.

2) Rife with speculation. The fundamentals for investing in gold and silver are quite similar. Both have historic status as a monetary metals. They even have their own symbols for trading on international currency exchanges. Logically then, both metals should have followed similar trajectories after the Fed announced its quantitative easing program, QE2, in September. Instead, gold futures have climbed 20 percent while silver shot up 150 percent. That leads me to believe the rise in silver prices has been driven by speculators and momentum traders who are attracted to the smaller, more volatile silver market. If that’s the case and the momentum shifts away from silver, prices could collapse quickly.

3) Government Intervention. Over the long haul, I’m convinced there’s still a bullish argument for gold and silver prices. QE2 may be coming to an end in June, but unless the Fed plans to aggressively raise interest rates, inflation will start sinking its teeth into our pocketbooks. In such an environment, there are few places to retreat outside of precious metals. Hedge fund and money market managers know as much, and since they control such vast amounts of capital, entering the silver market in a large way isn’t really an option. The gold market, though, has the depth and stability to absorb enormous inflows of capital. Expect gold to outperform in such an environment.

Of course, for all the pontificating of analysts and writers (myself included), there’s a chance that the gold:silver ratio has been artificially high over the past few decades. Perhaps the market’s shaking loose the shorts? Or maybe the sudden change in silver’s fortunes is due to renewed industrial demand from the solar industry?

Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management helps oversee more than $1 billion in assets, and he’s publicly argued that we’re in the midst of a watershed moment in the precious metals market. He’s went on the record calling for a gold:silver ratio as low as 10:1. Such bold predictions by respected investors could, in and of themselves, be pushing silver prices higher much faster than gold. Right now, though, the present looks very different than the past, and that should be enough to give all investors pause.

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Silver price forecasts hinge on Fed meeting

The breathless run-up in silver prices has investors eying a Wednesday afternoon press conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Here’s what we think will happen: Mr. Bernanke will praise the success of QE2. Since the start of the Fed’s quantitative easing program in August, the stock market’s up nearly 30 percent, unemployment’s down 0.3 percent (from 9.5 to 9.2) and the government’s (significantly rigged) inflation numbers look tame with growth of 2.7 percent year-over-year.

Mr. Bernanke’s also expected to reiterate that QE2 will end as scheduled in June. The gigantic cash spigot will be shut off. That doesn’t mean, of course, that the Fed will immediately stop injecting the economy with cash. They’re fully expected to keep re-investing the interest off the bonds they’ve already purchased. Without Japan and China, someone’s going to need to prop up bond prices, after all.

Of course, we’ve all known the end of QE2 was coming since the day it began. Perhaps the end of QE2 is already priced into the market in the short term. What’s more pressing is where the Fed stands on raising interest rates. If Mr. Bernanke so much as hints that an interest rate rise is imminent, silver prices could collapse. Rising interest rates would strengthen the dollar and slow down rampant inflation. If Mr. Bernanke hints that we’re still half a year away from tightening, silver prices just might break through the hallowed $50 an ounce high-water mark.

A run above $50 an ounce is a mixed blessing. It’ll make a lot of people a lot of money, but it could also be the start of the parabolic silver mania that investors like Jim Rogers are worried about. Rogers (the creator of the International Commodities Index) was on Financial Survival Radio last week saying he hopes silver prices correct in the near-term because he wants to buy more.

If silver prices don’t correct, Rogers worries they could keep climbing dangerously fast – the hallmark of a parabolic move – and perhaps even flirt with prices over $100 an ounce. Such high prices would also indicate that the world’s fed up with the Fed’s over-extended check book.

Already we’re seeing signs that international investors and governments want nothing to do with the dollar. The greenback has tumbled nearly 8 percent (as indicated by the dollar index) since the start of QE2. At some point, the piper must be paid. We can stretch it out over 10 years like the Japanese did during their “Lost Decade,” or we can move aggressively now.

Of course, Mr. Bernanke and his closest cohorts believe Japan’s troubles lingered on for years because the country’s quantitative easing program was too small. That leads me to believe interest rates aren’t going to get tightened anytime soon. If I’m right, the party in silver might just be getting started.

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What happens when QE2 ends in June?

Call it D-Day; “D” for decline. On June 30, the Federal Reserve is expected to close the door on its enormous quantitative easing program QE2. No one knows for sure what will happen, but there seems to be a general consensus that markets are going to get volatile. Here’s my take:

Look for a sell-off in stocks. With the Fed pumping as much as $2.5 billion into the economy every day since November, it makes sense that equities have been on the rise – particularly as short-term bond yields flirt with near-negative rates (when adjusted for inflation). Once the cash spigot shuts off, a big support for the markets will be kicked free. Runaway oil prices have already started digging a rut in economies around the world. That prompted analysts at Goldman Sachs last week to urge clients to go underweight commodities in the near-term.

Inflation’s not over yet. Keep in mind that the Fed’s goal with QE2 was to stave off deflation. With inflation near 10 percent (per ShadowStats), they’ve clearly achieved what they set out to do. However, ending QE2 won’t immediately lead to a wave of deflation. Inflation spiked in Japan for more than five months after the government officially ended its QE experiment in March of 2006. Stocks, however, collapsed, and the Nikkei took more than a year to recover.

Bond yields will shoot for the sky. Without a rigged auction system, bond buyers could be in short supply come July. If that’s the case, prices will fall and the yields on U.S. treasuries will likely spike. Japan experienced something similar during its VaR Shock in July of 2003. At the first sign of weakness in the bond market, risk models triggered heavy bond selling by banks and other financial institutions in the country. The net effect was a tripling of bond yields in three months. A similar sell-off in the U.S. could potentially trigger sovereign debt fears of the sort we’ve seen in Europe.

Precious metals cool. I’m definitely bullish on gold and silver for the long haul, but I’m still haunted by 2008′s 28 percent sell-off in gold during the height of the financial crisis. If we do see an all-out panic, investors could lose faith in just about every investment vehicle on the planet – including precious metals. Still, I’d look at any metals sell-off this summer as a buying opportunity – not an opportunity to go short. The volatility in the metals markets could be enough to crush even the most steadfast investor.

VIX ETF funds could make you money. If there is blood in the streets come June 30, the best place to park your cash might be in a volatility-based ETF. The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (Public, NYSE:VXX), for instance, tracks the Fear Index by investing in futures. When markets get choppy, VXX outperforms. Rather than churn and burn your way through cash, invest in fear and uncertainty itself. After all, uncertainty about the future is about the only thing investors can agree on right now.

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What happens when silver hits $50 an ounce?

It’s increasingly looking like silver will take out it’s all-time high of $49.45 set in January 1980. The metal rose 80 percent in 2010, and it’s tacked on another 41 percent since the start of the year. Prices now hover around $44 an ounce – just $6 away from record levels. It’s looking like the question shouldn’t be whether or not silver will hit $50 an ounce, but rather what will happen when it does?

Having come of age long after the 1970s, I’m fortunate not to have lived through an oppressive period of inflation. I’m unfortunate, in a sense, though, because if I had, I probably would have taken out long positions in gold and silver years ago.

What I didn’t understand then is the same thing a lot of people don’t understand now: precious metals act as a store of value. If the dollar’s dropping in value, it will take an ever-larger number of dollars in the future to buy the exact same amount of silver. By holding silver instead of greenbacks, you are, in effect, protecting yourself from the erosion of the dollar’s purchasing power.

Throw in some speculators, growing budget deficits and a dash of geopolitical stability and silver’s powers as a store of value get compounded by increasing demand for the metal. That’s how we’ve gotten where we are today, and tomorrow doesn’t look much better.

In fact, I expect silver to break through the $50 mark and – after a consolidation period – keep climbing; perhaps into the triple digits. Here’s why:

1) Inflation has reared its ugly head. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index has climbed a mere 2.7 percent over the past 12 months. Shadowstats.com puts that number at more than 10 percent. The red line below represents the government’s “official” CPI numbers. The blue line indicates the CPI as calculated by Shadowstats:

Of course, you probably don’t need me to tell you inflation has arrived. I suspect you’ve noticed you’re paying more at the pump and the grocery store than you have since 2008. That’s an indication of just how troublesome it is to be holding cash right now.

2) There’s more inflation on the way. We may not get a QE3, but the Fed will need to come up another way to continue growing the money supply by the end of the year. The national debt has simply gotten too large for the government to control without printing money. Consider the fact that the U.S. GDP stands just north of $14 trillion. That’s the total market value of the entire U.S. economy. The national debt is also north of $14 trillion giving us a debt-to-GDP ratio near 100 percent. Interest payments on that debt are expected to amount to $242 billion in FY2012. That doesn’t sound like much when we’re used to talking in trillions, but consider Congress’ recent fight over trimming $38.5 billion from the budget. That battle nearly shut down the Federal government. Until Washington gets serious about reforming spending, the debt will dictate the Fed’s monetary policy (i.e. the printing presses will continue to roll).

3) The echo chamber. As investors flee inflation by moving into precious metals, pressure on the dollar mounts. “The U.S. credit rating will undoubtedly be lowered in the next few years,” Michael Pento, an economist at Euro Pacific Capital in New York, told Bloomberg yesterday. “This will mean much higher borrowing costs and a much lower currency. International investors have been using gold and silver as an alternative currency and an alternative to the dollar, and this will only exacerbate and accelerate that process.”

4) $50 today isn’t $50 in 1980. For silver to truly break its record high in 1980, it will need to do so in inflation-adjusted dollars: an amount that’s closer to $150 an ounce. The eerie similarities between today’s economy and the economic climate in the 1970s make me think we have a long way to go in silver prices. Once we break through silver’s psychological barrier at $50 an ounce, there may be a powerful sell-off, but I’d view it as a buying opportunity. So long as our government fails to restore faith in the dollar, commodities will remain king.

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3 signs silver prices are due for a correction

Doggedly rising silver prices have split precious metal investors into two camps: those who see silver taking out the $50 an ounce mark, and those who are convinced a powerful correction is overdue. No one can know for certain where prices are headed, but we could very well be on the cusp of a parabolic move in silver prices – or, perhaps, a frightening correction. The pessimist in me sees three reasons why silver prices could falter in the coming weeks:

1) The close of QE2. The best way to make money investing is by beating the herd to the punch. And there’s a big punch that’s waiting for precious metals investors at the end of June: the end of QE2. The Fed’s loose monetary policies are what kicked up fears of inflation in the first place. Take away those fears (if you can do so in time) and you take away the perception that the dollar’s going to be worthless in a few years. If some modicum of faith in the dollar gets restored, investors won’t necessarily have to stash their cash in metal to protect their assets.

2) A downgrade on commodities. Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) are sounding the warning bell. They spent much of last week telling investors that rising oil prices are threatening to suck the air out of the global recovery. “Mounting downside risks to current exceptionally high crude oil prices are leading us to recommend an underweight allocation to commodities on a 3 to 6-month horizon, but we maintain an overweight on a 12-month horizon on tightening fundamentals over the next year,” analysts at the investment bank wrote according to Barron’s. While it’s true that much of the run-up in commodities has been driven by inflation, prices are also dictated by economic growth. Should companies start warning of a wide-spread economic slowdown, silver prices won’t necessarily be immune from a correction.

3) A slap on the wrist from Standard & Poor’s. Silver spot prices briefly surged just shy of $43.60 an ounce yesterday on the heels of a stern warning from Standard & Poor’s. The rating agency warned it could downgrade the coveted AAA rating on U.S. debt in the next two years should politicians fail to address the budget deficit. The wake-up call should jolt politicians into action (if for no other reason than the desire to protect their own portfolios!). If Washington does make reducing the budget a priority, that could make the greenback look more attractive.

All that said, I’m still long silver. The dollar isn’t the only currency that’s getting devalued. Countries around the world are similarly trying to stimulate their economies in the face of high unemployment, geopolitical instability and the ongoing crisis in Japan.

There’s also the chance that the damage from QE2 has already been done. Even if the program were to end tomorrow, inflation won’t disappear overnight. That will make it even tougher for American businesses to compete on the international stage, and the Fed will have few arrows left in its quiver (outside of the mythical QE3).

Until QE3 sets sail, though, the words of the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, are echoing in my ears: “Be fearful when others are greed and greedy when others are fearful.” It’s hard to deny that silver has investors feeling greedy right now. Perhaps that means a little fear is warranted.

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