15 gold price predictions for 2011

A number of influential traders and executives have publicly weighed in with gold price forecasts for 2011. Here’s a recap of the more memorable predictions from 15 trading professionals and individuals.

A number of influential traders and executives have publicly weighed in with gold price forecasts for 2011. Here’s a recap of the more memorable predictions:

Chuck Jeannes: Goldcorp Inc.’s (NYSE:GG) CEO sees gold at $1,500 an ounce as “easily achievable,” and he could see the price eventually rising as high as $2,300 if and when inflation sets in (The Street)

Dennis Wheeler: Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation’s (NYSE:CDE) CEO “would not be surprised” if gold prices rose to $1,500-$1,600 an ounce in 2011 (Reuters)

Sean Boyd: Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited’s (NYSE:AEM) CEO argues gold at $1,600 an ounce in the next 12 months would “not be a stretch” (Reuters). “Gold will ultimately go above $2,000 and I think it’s going to go in steps so I could see $1,600 this year,” he tells The Street.

Mark Cutifani: The CEO of AngloGold Ashanti Limited (NYSE:AU) see gold range-bound between $1,300 and $1,500 an ounce in 2011 (The Street)

Rick Rule: The founder of Global Resource Investments, which was acquired by Sprott Inc. (TSE:SII), expects “some event-driven spike in metals prices.” “I have no earthly idea where gold will close, but to be a good sport and play the game, I’ll say $1,750,” he says (SeekingAlpha)

Aaron Regent: CEO of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX) tells The Street he believes the “forward curve would suggest a gold price in the $1,500 range” (The Street)

Ian McAvity: The founder of the Central Fund of Canada (CEF), Central Gold Trust (GTU), and Silver Bullion Trust (SBT.U) expects a “monetary panic” in the dollar or euro to push gold to $2,000-$2,400 per ounce this year or in 2012 (SeekingAlpha)

Mark Bristow: The CEO at Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ:GOLD) expected gold to rise as high as $1,500 an ounce (The Street)

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS): The investment bank has set a gold price target of $1,512 an ounce for gold in 2011 (The Street)

Ross Norman: The co-founder of TheBullionDesk.com is looking for gold to trade between $1,350 and new all-time highs of $1,850 per ounce (SeekingAlpha)

The Street reader survey: Of the almost 6,000 people who have taken The Street’s gold poll, 47 percent believe gold prices will finish between $1,500 and $1,800 an ounce in 2011 (The Street)

James Turk: The founder and chairman of online precious metals vendor GoldMoney.com sees gold sprinting much higher “probably in the first half” of this year to $2,000 per ounce (SeekingAlpha)

Charles Oliver: The senior portfolio manager of the Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund, Oliver sees currencies around the world continuing to plummet in 2011. He expects that will push gold up to $1,700+ by the end of the year (SeekingAlpha)

Adrian Ash: A researcher at BullionVault sees individual savers moving into gold bullion this year as negative real interest rates erode buying power. That could push gold 20 percent higher this year to $1,695 an ounce (SeekingAlpha)

Richard O’Brien: The president and CEO of Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM) sees gold eventually rising to $1,750 an ounce by 2012 thanks to the protection the metal provides against inflation. In 2011, he sees gold trading between $1,350 and $1,500 an ounce (Reuters)



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Youku stock crumbles after silent period ends

Youku (YOKU) and China Dangdang (DANG) shed nearly 10 percent each after the mandatory silent period ends on the stocks.

After the mandatory silent period lifted yesterday on Youku.com, Inc. (NYSE:YOKU) and E-Commerce China Dangdang, Inc. (NYSE:DANG), stock analysts were finally allowed to weigh in on whether or not investors should buy into the companies. Despite powerful IPOs, analysts weren’t too enthusiastic on the so-called “YouTube” (Youku) and “Amazon” (Dangdang) of China, though.

Piper Jaffray gave both stocks a neutral rating. Goldman Sachs and Cowen concurred. Goldman’s James Mitchell pointed out that Youku “could get profitable quickly,” though according to CNBC.com, “perhaps as soon as late this year or early next year.”

Still, Mitchell was careful to point out that YouKu faces rapidly rising costs as video content producers demand more money for their product. Licensing fees for the movies that YouKu sells as online streams rose by more than 90 percent in 2010. If that trend continues, Youku has little hope of making money by selling streaming video, and the company will have to rely heavily on some form of ad-supported site content.

The demure reception by analysts seemed to cool investor excitement over the stocks yesterday as Youku fell more than 9 percent to $34.09 a share and Dangdang dropped 8.3 percent.

Still, the story’s complicated by the strange, almost-maniacal outburst Dangdang’s CEO posted on a Twitter-like site in China on Sunday evening. Guoqing Li was apparently miffed that Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) bankers talked him into offering Dangdang shares at $16. “I held back a breath and silently cursed you motherf**kers,” Li wrote online.

Even after the substantial drop in price yesterday, though, Dangdang’s shares are up 94 percent since the company’s IPO and Youku’s shares are up 166 percent. Only time will tell if the companies can hold investor interest long enough for them to start making serious money.


DangDang (NYSE:DANG) founder labels Morgan Stanley “motherf**kers”

The CEO of E-Commerce China Dangdang, Inc. (NYSE:DANG), Guoqing Li, railed publicly against Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) over the weekend after watching the shares he sold at $16 more than double to $33 in just over a month of trading on the NYSE.

If there’s one thing that’s truly refreshing about Chinese tech startups, it’s the fact that the CEOs there aren’t afraid to sound off like teenage boys when they feel like they’ve been wronged. It’s a nice reprise from the overly-sanitized, politically-correct, speak-words-without-actually-saying-anything, VOICE-OF-GOD tone that American CEOs have mastered.

Case in point, the CEO of E-Commerce China Dangdang, Inc. (NYSE:DANG), Guoqing Li, railed publicly against Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) over the weekend after watching the Dangdang shares he sold at $16 more than double to $33 in just over a month of trading on the NYSE. The CEO’s fictional “rock song” lyrics don’t pull any punches:

“Lyrics for a rock song: You (Morgan Stanley) gave out a valuation of 1-6 billion, but in Hong Kong the opening statements stated only 0.78 billion, stop f**king acting,” TechRice quotes Mr. Li as writing in his microblog account on the Twitter-like service Sina Weibo. “You f**kers knew first day of launch that valuation would be 2 billion, but you still priced USD 16 per share, which comes to 1.1 billion. My CFO was in panic mode, I held back a breath and silently cursed you motherf**kers.”

“I regret not giving the job to Goldman Sachs,” Mr. Li went on in response to a microblogger identified as a Morgan Stanley employee. “I am here openly criticizing investment banks, criticizing Morgan Stanley, what, Morgan Stanley can’t be criticized? Not be cursed? You foreigners’ flunky!”

Mishi fired back on the Twitter-like microblog platform, Sina Weibo, saying Mr. Li possesses an “IQ so low you don’t even understand the basic principles of being human.”

Morgan Stanley quickly issued a rebuke: “These comments are offensive, highly unprofessional and do not reflect industry practices. We condemn such behavior that can risk damaging a company’s brand and reputation,” the bank said in an official statement.

Now that the IPO silent period is over, it seems the kid gloves have come off. It could be a risky bit of marketing on the part of Mr. Li, or he might genuinely be miffed that he sold a huge stake in his own company for far too little. My guess? It’s a bit of both.

Mr. Li’s smart enough to know that an under-priced IPO can lead to a whole lot of positive PR, but its got to be frustrating watching your shares skyrocket and knowing that you’ve missed out on a few hundred million dollars in your pocket. I think I’d be doing some cursing, too. I just might not have made it public.


Earning future looks dim for Goldman (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS)

If the earnings results from commercial banks are any indication, the investment banking sector could get hammered this week with reports from Goldman and Morgan Stanley.

After some unimpressive earnings from the commercial banking giants, things don’t look great for the upcoming earnings releases from investment banks Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).

On the commercial side, revenues were down at all three of the biggest banks:

  • Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC): Revenue -40 percent
  • Citigroup Inc. (Public, NYSE:C): Revenue -26 percent
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM): Revenue -24 percent

The good news? The three commercial banks generally beat analysts estimates, but they did it on lower credit losses as consumers hunker down to pay off their debts (another factor that could slow the economy at large).

If the commercial banks are any indication, earnings from the biggest investment banks will be unimpressive, too. Be wary of a sell-off in shares of Goldman and Morgan Stanley. Goldman is slated to report their earnings on Tuesday, July 20, before the market open. Analysts are calling for earnings of $2.04 per share, down $2.89 from a year ago. Morgan Stanley will report earnings Wednesday, July 21, before the market open. Analysts are anticipating earnings of $0.46 per share, up $1.83 from a year ago’s loss of $1.37 per share.