A month ago, an ounce of silver was worth $33. Today, that same ounce is worth $29.50 – a drop of more than 10 percent. While we’re certain the 12-year bull market in precious metals isn’t over, we do think there could be more pain for silver investors in the near-term. Here’s why:
1) The Gold/Silver Ratio. The gold:silver ratio has been trending up since early March, and that trend probably won’t stop until the ratio re-tests January’s highs around 57:1. Why? Because swing and momentum traders themselves help cause the fluctuations in the gold:silver ratio. So long as the ratio is showing a clearly defined trend, and it’s not nearing any key resistance levels (or psychological barriers), those swing traders are going to short silver. Check out the steady upward climb in the gold:silver ratio:

[Source: Seeking Alpha]
2) Long live the dollar. The greenback can’t seem to do anything wrong. That’s despite explosive growth in True Money Supply (or the sum total of all the cash, deposits and notes that are floating about in our economy). Just check out this chart from Mises.org:

During ordinary economic times, you could expect the yields on U.S. bonds to spike in the face of such aggressive monetary easing. Instead, the dollar looks stable compared to the financial situation across the pond.
The Eurozone “is on a path that leads to eventual dismantling,” Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors wrote in a note to clients on Monday (per IB Times). “Greece restructured debt, made different rules for different holders, and yet, the new bonds trade at 20% of par.”
Investors are telling the Eurozone countries that they no longer believe there’s a way out. That threat of a Eurozone breakup has bought the dollar some street cred that it probably shouldn’t have – and that’s bad for silver prices.
3) Even die-hard silver bulls are losing some of their excitement over the white metal. “While I do remain very bullish on silver, I must also admit that for the first time I can envision a scenario in which silver does not reach $100,” writes Simit Patel at Seeking Alpha. His reasoning? Gold will likely outperform everything (silver and stocks) if the equity markets remain soft.
Of course, all of the arguments above have me thinking that now might be the perfect time to buy silver. I’m not alone either. Check out my recent post Why Eric Sprott believes silver prices will triple to $100 an ounce in 2012. Just remember that if you do buy, though, you need to be able to hold onto the metal in the face of near-term weakness. Prices may be higher in three months, but what happens between now and then might not be pretty.
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“Prices are probably going to head higher [in the second half of 2012] and we could see a push above $40 at some point,” though silver is unlikely to sustain those price levels Philip Klapwijk, the Global Head of Metals Analytics at Thomson Reuters GFMS, told 











Their reasoning? The gold-silver ratio is tilted too far toward gold. “The 200-day (gold/silver ratio) moving average is at 47.64, which we suspect will be tested,” analysts wrote. As it stands right now, the gold-silver ratio is hovering around 51.



The most important question then is, “How far will silver prices go before they peak?” Global Investing Strategist at Money Morning, Martin Hutchinson, was brave enough to make a prediction over at 


1) Slow and steady wins the race. The fundamental case for gold and silver hasn’t changed, but investor perception has. Whatever the cause of silver’s violent 30 percent plunge, the aftershocks of that move will likely continue for several months. Meanwhile, gold’s proven that its support won’t be knocked out so easily. Over the past month, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV) has shed nearly 18 percent of its value. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD) has actually appreciated 0.4 percent during the same time span. That shows unflappable support for the yellow metal even as panic seemed to set in for commodities across the board. When the muck truly hits the fan, there’s nowhere safer than gold.





Is it time to re-allocate some of your silver holdings into gold? Could we be witnessed a shift in investor sentiment? No one knows for sure, but the powerful upswing in gold prices while silver sat by languishing was enough to give me pause. Here are some possible explanations for the shift:



Not everyone’s ready to toss their silver positions overboard, though. Silver bulls still have lots of compelling arguments for a continued rally in prices. Here are five reasons to invest in silver now:
1) ‘Mean Reversion.’ The gold:silver ratio is at 30-year lows. “Generally, relative strength relationships ‘revert to normal’ or at least move towards equilibrium over time,” writes Corey Rosenbloom at 











