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Posts Tagged ‘gold price predictions’

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27
May
2013

Has the gold market bottomed in 2013?

by Alejandro Mendoza

-Posted by Alejandro Guillú Mendoza

Introduction

This article tries to explain in a simple way to readers without a college degree in economics or finance some macroeconomic factors that are currently changing the global supply and demand of gold. They’re not often talked about, but they are very important to understanding the precious metals market!

Ground rules

Gold coins ARE NOT INVESTMENTS. Gold coins are still minted by countries to satisfy the unlimited demand for numismatists around the world. When you acquire a gold coin you are not only paying for the precious metal itself but also for the graphic design and for the minting.

Countries make billions of dollars each year buying gold by the ton and reselling it as coins.

There is nothing wrong with collecting coins if you ARE ALREADY A MILLIONAIRE. If you are not, then you need to sell your coin collection right now to the highest bidders.

The problem with gold coins is that you need to pay for insurance each year, and that cost eats some of your profits.

If you want to invest in gold then you need to buy either a gold mine or the ETFs IAU or GLD.

There are other financial instruments for more sophisticated investors that I am not going to cover in this article. If you want me to write about them then drop me a line.

Mexico is now a bullion superpower with a little help from Carlos Slim Helú

Only ten countries in the world produce more gold than Mexico. However, the annual gold production has grown at double-digit rates in 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2011.

Unlike other countries, in Mexico you don’t own the gold in your own land. If you find gold in your backyard then the government takes it. There is no such thing as a Mexican prospector.

There is no point in using modern technology to search for gold mines in Mexico and buy the land to make literally a ton of cash. As you can imagine, there is little demand for a geologist in Mexico because you cannot monetize the natural resources.

After over 300 years of gold mining, the United States of America, Peru and Canada remain the third, sixth and seventh largest gold producers in the world. Mexico is very similar to those countries from a geological point of view but nobody has mined that gold yet. In other words, there are mountains of gold in Mexico.

The supply of gold in the continent of America is too vast and unlimited if you consider the current global demand. We have enough gold to pay the entire debt of every country in the continent of America to the rest of the world.

Each year we find faster and cheaper ways to extract gold. Innovation also applies to the extraction of gold. One very important factor that you need to consider is that gold is usually found in very remote locations very far from civilization. Gold mines invest a lot of money in diesel to transport the precious metal to the nearest DHL, UPS or Federal Express location.

Electric cars will only increase the profits of gold mines in the coming years.

After the 1994 economic crisis in Mexico, experts were hired to avoid another economic crisis in the future, and one of the suggestions was to allow billionaires and foreign, publicly-traded mining companies to extract the gold and save it for a rainy day.

Fresnillo (London: FRES) is now a FTSE 100 company and the 30th-largest diversified metals and mining company in the world, according to Forbes. Annual profits are over $700 million. It is not a bad idea to set up a limit order to buy this company at $1,000 in case the price drops from current levels due to a panic sell-off.

Mexico currently holds over 125 tonnes of gold, and they will keep buying gold from Fresnillo and other mining companies currently operating in Mexico until the gold reserves are over 365 tonnes, which is what Venezuela currently holds.

Mexico is one of the richest countries in the world, and with over $170 billion in foreign exchange reserves, they certainly can afford to buy more gold. This “I will buy any amount of gold that you can extract” will attract a lot more gold mining companies. They don’t even have to invest any capital. Mexico will lend them any cash they may need to install the mine, and they can pay for the loan in gold.

You cannot even pay for your MasterCard at Bank of America with a gold coin, let alone a billion-dollar syndicated loan if you are a mining company. Unless Russia, South Africa, Peru, Canada, Indonesia, Uzbekistan and Ghana start a Golden Arches Bank where foreign publicly-traded mining companies like BHP Billiton (BHP) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) can apply for a billion-dollar loan to build new gold mines, everybody will just move to Mexico.

What is a Gold Mart?

India likes gold jewelry a lot. In fact, they buy more gold jewelry that anybody else with the exception of China.

One smart way for China, Australia, the United States of America, Russia, South Africa, Peru, Canada, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Ghana and Mexico to increase exports of gold jewelry is to simply lend money to young entrepreneurs in Pakistan, Nepal, Buthan, Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives to open a Gold Mart franchise.

The fictional Gold Mart franchises will be strategically located in cities near the border with India to encourage small business owners to buy gold jewelry and sell it to consumers in India.

Each Gold Mart will include a large selection of jewelry from small companies that just don’t have the infrastructure to export small quantities of gold jewelry to India. Each country will handle the logistics to ship their products near the largest market for gold jewelry. This will create a lot of jobs in the gold jewelry industry and a lot of tax revenue.

Obviously, I am not a consultant for any of the countries previously mentioned, but I am sure they hired people way smarter than me to help them keep the demand for gold high and they will come up with a lot more clever solutions to export more gold jewelry to India.

I am just a regular guy. Countries have entire armies of consultants just thinking how to solve their problems all day long.

Conclusion

India cannot force their people to stop wearing gold jewelry, but they can systematically sell their gold reserves every time the price of gold goes up more than usual until their reserves are depleted.

Gold stored in vaults does not produce any cash (unless of course, you lend the gold)

You can also lend shares in gold mines. Perhaps it is time for India to invest in the Ghana Stock Exchange, the Uzbekistan Stock Exchange and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Just a thought.

As always, be prepared for volatility in the gold market, no matter what you do, and never allocate more than 30% of your portfolio to precious metals. Remember, gold is a hedge against a currency collapse, and no one can guarantee there will actually be a currency collapse. Preserving your capital should always trump the desire to make large profits!

Photo by TheRivo

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05
Feb
2013

IBD likes platinum; not gold or silver

by Fred Marion

And the newspaper gives five reasons why:

  1. Platinum has outperformed gold and silver in the short-term and over the past year.
  2. Strong car sales mean higher platinum prices, particularly since 40 percent of mined platinum goes into catalytic converters.
  3. Mine strikes in South Africa have seriously dampened platinum supplies.
  4. Mining costs have out-stripped platinum prices for a lot of companies – a fact that will likely lead even more producers to cut their platinum output.
  5. Growth in China means more platinum jewelry sales.

Source: Investors.com.

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11
May
2012

Three reasons $6,000 gold makes sense

by Fred Marion

Despite accusations that it’s a worthless chunk of metal, gold prices have risen for the past 12 years. That’s more than a decade of net buying, and those buyers must have a good reason to keep pushing up gold’s price.

In general, I break gold buyers into two camps: defensive buyers and offensive buyers. Defensive buyers are temporarily trying to protect their wealth from effects of inflation. Offensive buyers are the so-called “gold bugs” – the investors who believe that we’re in the midst of a financial crisis that can only be resolved in one way: a string of sovereign defaults. Those offensive buyers don’t plan on selling until we have some new, multi-national gold-backed monetary system.

If we look at gold from the perspective of an offensive buyer, their predictions of $6,000 gold start to make some sense. Here are three reasons why $6,000 gold just might come about:

1) A solid track record. $6,000 sounds like an awful lot of money, but that’s actually just 4 times higher than gold’s current price around $1,590 an ounce. During the 1970s, gold went up 24 times. If we look at gold’s starting point 12 years ago around $250 an ounce and multiply that by 24, we end up at $6,000 an ounce. Gold went up that radically in the past, so it can surely happen in the future.

2) The Dow/gold ratio. Historically, the Dow/gold ratio tends to revert to 2:1. At the time of this writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stands at 12,835 and gold’s selling for $1,591. That’s a Dow/gold ratio north of 8. If the Dow were to stay at its current levels (floundering sideways in the years to come), and the Dow/gold ratio were to return to historical means, we’d be looking at gold at $6,000 an ounce.

3) Sovereign defaults seem imminent. It’s hard to believe there are countries with debt that rivals our own, but Greece is under the magnifying glass. The Eurozone “is on a path that leads to eventual dismantling,” Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors wrote in a note to clients on Monday (per IB Times), and Greece looks like it’s poised to be the first domino that falls. Sunday’s election in the country is still yet to yield a coalition government. That’s prompted warnings from the EU “that Greece would get no more payments from the $170 billion deal approved in March if it did not enact roughly $15 billion in cuts by June” (per USAToday).

If Greece stops getting bailout cash, the country would slide into default within weeks. That might not happen in June, but it seems imminent, and it would certainly raise doubts about the future of the Euro.

If people start doubting the future of a currency, gold will get a shot of adrenaline that’ll push it up rapidly. Throw a few currency defaults into the mix and there are few places besides gold to stash your cash. Viewed in that light, $6,000 gold seems more and more likely.

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08
May
2012

Will mushrooming supply crush gold and silver prices in the years to come?

by Fred Marion

One of the most common arguments bears levy against gold and silver is the fact that record prices mean more gold and silver mines. With those mines, they argue, comes a glut of supply that could crush the precious metals markets.

One of the leading voices in this debate is Dr. Paul Walker of precious metals consultancy GFMS Thomson Reuters. At a conference last week in Dubai, Dr. Walker pointed out that it takes some $120-$150 billion of investment demand every year just to keep gold prices flat – not to mention see prices climb higher (per Resource Investor).

That a lot of cash to maintain a baseline, and I would argue that bodes well for silver prices.

“The amount of silver that’s available for investment each year is 450 million ounces and the amount of gold that’s available for purchase is about 70 million ounces, which means you have a ratio of about six-and-a-half to one is amount of silver you can buy versus gold,” Eric Sprott said in a recent interview (per ETFDailyNews).

At current prices, that means investment demand needs to grow by $13.5 billion to keep silver prices where they are. That’s far less than the $120 billion gold prices will need to stay afloat.

Still, silver prices tend to follow gold prices as both metals act as stores of value during periods of inflation. The main indicator for whether or not gold and silver prices can keep up with supply then is the expectation of inflation, and expectations are a fickle thing.

As Dr. Walker pointed out last week, it’s probably not supply that gold and silver investors should be concerned about, but rather the possibility that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in an attempt to begin strengthening the dollar. That, he argues, could be the true “Black Swan” event we’ve all been worried about.

We’re not there yet, though. In fact, we just might see all-time record high gold and silver prices again before we ever see the interest rates rise. Check out our posts Silver prices setting up for 30-year high? and Why Eric Sprott believes silver prices will triple to $100 an ounce in 2012 for more.

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03
May
2012

Why Commerzbank believes gold will hit an ‘all-time high’ by end of 2012

by Fred Marion

With gold prices up 6.8 percent since the start of 2012, it’s tough to say it’s been a bad year for gold, but momentum for the metals seems to have waned.

“Right now, the disappointment of the gold bulls, you can actually feel it,” Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG, told Bloomberg during an interview early in April. While Weinberg believes this will present a buying opportunity “in the coming months,” it probably won’t happen soon. Even in early April, he was predicting gold would dip through June or July – perhaps below $1,600 an ounce.

The malaise in the gold market is probably due in part to seasonal trends, and in part to a need for the metal to cool after an unprecedented, two-year surge during which investors saw prices climb from $900 to $1,900 an ounce.

It’s been tough for gold bulls to stomach, though, as prices in other commodities have outperformed gold. Brent crude, for instance has nearly doubled gold’s performance year to date, with the commodity up 12.5 percent. Gasoline prices are up 12.19 percent, and soybean prices are up 12.35 percent year-to-date (per Index Mundi).

Weinberg argues that gold doesn’t behave like commodities such as oil and grains because it’s not. In his words, it’s a currency, and there are a lot of factors that are colluding to drive down gold as a currency. Specifically, Weinberg cites three things:

  • The Fed is signaling QE3 is less and less likely
  • The global economy is showing early signs of a recovery
  • The dollar is strengthening as other economies pump more cash into their systems

Still, Weinberg remains “structurally bullish” on gold.

“I’m staying bullish on the longer-term and believe that the negative real interest rates, the inflation fears, and longer-term concerns about the economy are likely to keep the prices, the long-term trend intact and the prices are likely to reach another all-time high by year-end.”

The market’s overly optimistic on the state of the economy, Weinberg argues. But we’re not out of the woods yet, and that fact should start hitting home come mid-summer. When it does, gold prices will once again power higher.

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02
May
2012

Warning: Gold and silver prices have further to fall before their summer lows

by Fred Marion

Gold and silver have officially entered the pre-summer doldrums. And that’s got some investors wondering if the decade-long bull market in precious metals is coming to a close. In fact, it looks like the metal’s going through a much-needed consolidation period that probably has a few more months to play out. Here’s why:

1) The consolidation could last 15 months. Gold’s run from $900 to $1,900 an ounce was a largely uninterrupted 25-month sprint, and that means we should expect a consolidation. In fact, this current consolidation hasn’t been long enough based on gold price corrections in the past, according to Jordan Roy-Byrne, the proprietor of Trendsman Research.

“This 25-month advance has been followed by an 8-month correction,” Roy-Byrne writes. “Using Fibonacci retracements implies a ‘time’ correction of 9.5 months, 12.5 months or 15.5 months. This indicates that Gold should correct (in terms of time) for at least few more months.”

2) Gold speculators are on holiday. “Open interest (for COMEX gold) stands at 1,284.9 tonnes – a new 12-month low,” Standard Bank wrote in its Commodities Daily report on April 23, 2012. “ETFs are still net sellers of gold, with 2.2 tonnes sold over the past week. However, the modest nature of the selling is once again a sign that ETFs do not have a particularly bearish view either.”

It’s almost as if gold investors aren’t bullish or bearish. They’re just plain apathetic right now. And that will probably continue until we get a catalyst for a big move up or down (see our post Say hello to the catalysts that could push gold prices up overnight for more).

3) Fears of recession linger. The disappointing GDP numbers released last week didn’t make investors want to run out and buy precious metals. In fact, the general consensus is that things are going to get worse before they get better. If that’s the case, commodities (including oil, precious metals and base metals) will likely suffer in the short-term, then rocket higher before the recession starts to lift or Bernanke announces a new round of quantitative easing.

“Virtually all commodities made a sharp correction in the 2008 selloff,” writes Robert Hallberg at Seeking Alpha. “Oil and silver were hit the worst and even gold made a sharp downturn. But by the time we were out of the recession gold had already made new highs and silver [was] back to where it started while oil was still down.”

4) Gold aiming for $1,500s? The current gold price correction is “shaking out every weak-handed holder possible,” Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital, tells Money News. “But I think it’s going to bottom some time this quarter.”

Schatz sees prices dipping into the $1,500s, before starting a fresh climb – one that could see gold prices break $2,000 an ounce. If that’s the case, look for more pain before we start seeing profits in gold.

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01
May
2012

How realistic is $5,000 gold?

by Fred Mason

The way I view it, there are two scenarios that could push gold prices up to $5,000 an ounce: 1) A slow and steady upward rise in metal prices as governments continue devaluing their currencies; or 2) a panic-fueled scramble out of just about every asset class outside of precious metals and tangible assets.

The first option is looking increasingly unlikely. “From what we know about commodity cycles going back into the 1700s, the average bull cycle lasts about 17 years,” John E. LaForge (who heads up Ned Davis Research’s Commodity Team) said in a recent interview with Mineweb. “This commodity cycle has now gone 11 years. Typically the first 10 years of those cycles is when a lot of that easy money is made. That’s when things like gold go up seven times from $250/oz to $1,700/oz. If gold increased seven times from $1,600-1,700/oz, that would equate to $10,000/oz. To get another seven-fold increase from here would be tough.”

Indeed, major investment firms have started paring back their 2012 and 2013 forecasts on gold prices. Citigroup, for instance, forecasts the metal hitting $1,718 an ounce in 2012 and $1,835 an ounce in 2013 – that’s 4 percent less than their last 2013 forecast per Marketwatch.

By 2014, analysts are expecting the Federal Reserve to start closing the spigot on the easy money we’ve been enjoying. Once interest rates start climbing, the dollar should rise and gold prices would likely taper off. Silver will be hit even harder in that scenario, Citi says (see our post: Why Citi says investors should stay away from silver).

As a slow and steady rise toward $5,000 an ounce gold looks increasingly unlikely, that leaves just one other scenario that could push us there: a black swan – some unexpected Lehman Brothers-style collapse or sovereign default that sucker-punches the global economy and leaves investors running for the hills.

There are plenty of candidates that could lead to an investor panic:

  • A breakup or re-organization of the Eurozone
  • A sovereign default in Europe, Asia or elsewhere
  • A sudden spike in bond yields in the U.S. – meaning investors start losing confidence in the U.S. government’s ability to pay back its debt
  • The collapse of a major international bank

“As more and more of this money is printed everywhere, not just in the U.S. but also in the Eurozone, Japan, China and elsewhere, there’s going to be a realization sometime in the next three to five years that maybe the $20 sitting in a pocket isn’t worth what it used to be,” LaForge says. “How do I protect myself? People are going to start looking more toward hard assets. Gold is one of those. Land could be another one. But gold is clearly something you can pick up and move.”

No one wants to see an economic collapse, but pretending warning signs (i.e. the threat of default in Italy, Spain or Greece) aren’t out there is exactly how we could end up with one. If the U.S. government and other governments around the world can restrain spending, $5,000 gold will probably remain one of those mythical, pie-in-the-sky numbers that we never see.

The problem is, governments have trouble reigning in their spending when there’s absolutely nothing backing up their currencies. That makes me think an economic calamity is possible in the coming years. I don’t necessarily see it leading to $5,000 gold (although $2,500 gold definitely looks possible). I do, however, expect to see the emergence of a global, gold-backed currency – one that holds governments and banks alike accountable for their spending.

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29
Apr
2012

Say hello to the catalysts that could push gold prices up overnight

by Fred Mason

Gold prices have fallen slowly and steadily since the end of February, and that’s got some commentators arguing that it could be the beginning of the end for the yellow metal (see our post 3 signs investors are fleeing gold for more). That said, the price of gold is anything if not volatile.

Gold prices are so volatile, in fact, Barclays Capital’s Maneesh Deshpande is telling investors to trade volatility in gold prices rather than the metal itself (per Barron’s). In spite of that, Deshpande and several co-authors of a recent research report from Barclays have identified what they call catalysts for a rapid upswing in gold prices. Among them:

1) A Euro hangover. Should another wave of panic sweep across the Euro-zone, look for investors to pour into gold. The authors of the report do point out that the correlation between problems with the Euro and higher gold prices is tenuous at best. If a country were to be forced out of the Euro-zone or were to go into default, though, we suspect that gold prices could spike significantly.

2) A thumbs up from the Indian government. One of the less visible reasons we’ve seen languishing gold prices is India’s recent tax increase on gold imports. The government doubled import dues from 2 percent to 4 percent. That’s putting strain on the the Indian gold market, and India remains the world’s largest consumer of gold jewelry. Should the government change its mind on the new tax, gold prices could catapult higher. While Barclays feels a repeal of the tax hike is unlikely, they do point out that India’s parliament could consider modifying import rules (via its finance bill) on May 7. Whatever the outcome, gold prices could get volatile in the run-up to the decision.

3) Economic changes in the U.S. Should the economic picture in the U.S. grow cloudy, or worries over inflation crop up again, gold prices would be the biggest beneficiary. The presidential election in the fall could catalyze the Federal Reserve to take action via monetary easing if the economy shows signs of weakness. Monetary easing (or even the expectation of it) generally leads to higher gold prices as expectations of inflation grow.

Some commentators believe a new round of quantitative easing is imminent. “Bernanke will do everything in his power to make Obama look good to get re-elected,” says Chris Marchese, a contributor to The Morgan Report. Marchese is so confident this will happen, he’s predicted silver prices could spike as high as $70 an ounce this fall (nearly double where it’s at today). If silver prices do that, you can bet gold prices won’t be sitting still either.

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25
Apr
2012

3 signs investors are fleeing gold

by Fred Marion

We believe the trend is temporary, but there are worrying signs that investor interest in gold is waning. Here are three:

1) ETFs are pouring physical gold into the market. The impact of gold and silver ETFs on bullion prices cannot be understated, and last year, gold ETFs saw the lowest level of bullion intake since their inception in late 2004 (per IBTimes). That’s worrying enough, but in 2012, gold-based ETFs are actually selling off more gold than they’re taking in. That’s flooding the market with physical gold. Already in April, ETFs have sold off more than six tonnes of gold.

2) “The froth is coming off.” Pundits and authors have started venturing into the press with warnings that the gold and silver “bubble” is about to pop. One of the leaders of the bubble camp is Yoni Jacobs, author of Gold Bubble: Profiting from Gold’s Impending Collapse – a book that hit shelves yesterday. “The froth is coming off,” he says in a recent interview.

His reasoning for sounding the warning bell? Sellers have started out-numbering buyers. Last September, when the bottom fell out under gold prices, volume was extremely heavy – and that’s a bearish sign for the future. In addition, gold mining stocks are performing like gold’s glory days are long since past. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is down 20 percent over the past six months while the Gold ETF (GLD) has essentially stayed flat.

3) India’s government is trying to put the brakes on gold consumption. The government of the world’s largest gold consumer and importer is attempting to slow gold imports and consumption via taxes. The country doubled gold import duties from 2 percent to 4 percent. In addition, they’re levying a 0.3 percent tax on gold jewelry as the country’s struggling to contain a growing trade deficit.

The new taxes and the weak rupee have collided to push down gold jewelry and bullion sales by as much as 70 to 80 percent on a daily basis, per the Economic Times. “The demand is almost negative compared to previous years,” Ashish Mundhra, director of Chennai-based Mundhra Bullion, told the paper.

Still, not every agrees this is the end of the end for gold. And we definitely don’t either. In fact, we see this as one of the best time to buy shares in gold and silver mining stocks. We could be wrong, but we don’t think the U.S. economy is out of the woods yet. And with Bernanke at the helm of the Federal Reserve, we’re a lot more nervous about the future of the dollar than we are over the future of gold and silver.

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20
Apr
2012

Gold bears should watch out for “warning signs”

by Fred Marion

There haven’t been a lot of headlines focusing on gold this year, but prices for the yellow metal have continued climbing quietly in the background. The price of spot gold’s up more than 6 percent since the start of the year from roughly $1,550 an ounce to nearly $1,650 an ounce.

Blame it on the subtle hints of an economic recovery in the U.S., but interest in gold seems to be waning. For some, that’s a sign to sell the yellow metal. To us, it’s yet another great buying opportunity. Even the head of metals analysis at Thomson Reuters GFMS, Philip Klapwijk, has sounded the alarm, warning investors not to abandon gold just yet.

He argues gold’s startlingly cheap when comparing it against inflation-adjusted spot prices from the 1980s. Back then, the gold price averaged $1,678 in today’s money. That’s just $30 more than the price of gold today, and the economic picture is far murkier now than it was even in 80s.

“This can be seen as a warning note if you are on the bearish side of the market,” Klapwijk told MineWeb earlier this week. “For those on the bullish side of things, however, the high point that year was over $2,200, which is rather far away from current levels.”

Klapwijk identifies three components that will drive the gold price moving forward: 1) the price of gold itself (not just in nominal terms but when compared against other assets, too); 2) the performance of the dollar; and 3) monetary policy.

Speculation’s running rampant right now on whether the Federal Reserve’s planning a third round of monetary easing. If that happens, the price of the dollar will likely fall and gold could climb higher. It’s not just the U.S. that investors are watching for hints of future quantitative easing, though: Europe’s debt woes are far from over, and that means we’re going to continue to see interest rates that produce negative returns when factoring in inflation.

Gold bears should take note. The ride may be slowing, but it’s not over yet. As Klapwijk pointed out in the interview with MineWeb, it’s remarkable how few mainstream money managers have actually invested in precious metals. Until we see that, and, perhaps, serious talk about the emergence of a new, non-fiat currency, gold’s going to be a tough asset to beat.

Fred Marion is the author of a brand new book on investing in gold and silver mining stocks: The Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks.

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