Top 10 gold price predictions for 2013

My personal opinion? Gold likely bottomed at $1,200 recently, but don’t expect spectacular gains through the end of the year. Precious metals need a big catalyst to move higher aggressively.

-Posted by Alejandro Guillú Mendoza

Introduction
Many people around the world want to know the answer to the question, where are gold prices going?

I invested many hours browsing the internet searching for answers to this question to save you time and money because time is money.

Have another question? Drop me a line. I only answer questions regarding money. Please don’t ask me where your lost dog is or why your boss fired you.

Here are my findings when I searched for the Top 10 gold price predictions for 2013:

1) $1,487 Morgan Stanley

The 15th-leading investment services company in the world downgraded its forecast 16% to $1,487, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Peter Richardson said speculation of selling by European Central Banks and nervousness over the possibility that the United States of America Federal Reserve will end its QE earlier than December 2013 are also top contributing factors.

2) $1,530 David Morgan

David Morgan is the publisher of The Morgan Report and creator of silver-investor.com which has been featured on CNBC and Fox Business.

Bernice Napach of the Daily Ticker has written more about this. You can watch the seven-minute video here.

3) $1,550 Goldman Sachs

The second-leading investment services company in the world downgraded its six months forecast to $1,600 from $1,805 and its twelve months forecast to $1,550 from $1,800, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The recent sell-off was “likely excessive,” and it has “exposed a quickly waning conviction in holding gold positions, especially ETFs.”

4) $1,637 Deutsche Bank

The bank lowered its forecast last month 11.8% to $1,637, according to Fox.

“Given our forex strategist’s expectations for continued strength in the U.S. dollar and our U.S. economist’s forecasts for an acceleration in gross domestic product growth going forward, we expect that gold will struggle to appreciate meaningfully against the U.S. dollar.” – Daniel Brebner

5) $1,700 HSBC

The bank lowered its forecast 3.5% from $1,760 to $1,700, according to Reuters.

“Later in 2013, we expect monetary easing, escalating currency wars, and geopolitical tensions to support gold prices up to $1,800 an ounce.”

“Increased inflationary expectations should buoy gold.”

“Any price drop below $1,600 per ounce may stimulate jewelry, coin and small bar retail demand in price-sensitive economies.”

“Further ETF or Comex liquidations could put additional pressure on gold prices.”

6) $1,880 Aubie Baltin

Check out this article: 5 reasons Gold Will Set an All-time Record in 2013. I’m not sure I agree, but the title’s pretty bombastic…

7) $2,200-$3,000 Jason Hamlin

Jason Hamlin is the President and Founder of GoldStockBull and more importantly, one of the Opinion Leaders in the Gold & Precious Metals category at Seeking Alpha.

Pent-Up Potential For Precious Metals in 2013 is an interview by The Gold Report where he discussed his prediction.

8) $10,000 Societe Generale

“With some rare exceptions … analysts don’t like to stand out from the crowd. It is dangerous and career-challenging. In that vein, we repeat our key forecasts of the S&P Composite to bottom around 450, accompanied by sub-1% US 10-year yields and gold above $10,000.” – Albert Edwards

Read more in Doomsday? SocGen Predicts S&P to 450, Gold at $10,000 by Sam Mamudi.

9) Franklin Templeton

The tenth-leading investment services company in the United States of America does not offer a specific numeric forecast. However, they believe the price of gold will go up. You can read their recent financial analysis here.
Keep in mind only eight investment services companies in the world make more money than them.

10) Hebba Investments

Hebba Investments is one of the Opinion Leaders in the Gold & Precious Metals category at Seeking Alpha and although he does not offer a specific numeric forecast, he believes the price of gold will go up. You can read his recent financial analysis here.

My personal opinion? Gold likely bottomed at $1,200 recently, but don’t expect spectacular gains through the end of the year. Precious metals need a big catalyst to move higher aggressively.

15 gold price predictions for 2011

A number of influential traders and executives have publicly weighed in with gold price forecasts for 2011. Here’s a recap of the more memorable predictions from 15 trading professionals and individuals.

A number of influential traders and executives have publicly weighed in with gold price forecasts for 2011. Here’s a recap of the more memorable predictions:

Chuck Jeannes: Goldcorp Inc.’s (NYSE:GG) CEO sees gold at $1,500 an ounce as “easily achievable,” and he could see the price eventually rising as high as $2,300 if and when inflation sets in (The Street)

Dennis Wheeler: Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation’s (NYSE:CDE) CEO “would not be surprised” if gold prices rose to $1,500-$1,600 an ounce in 2011 (Reuters)

Sean Boyd: Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited’s (NYSE:AEM) CEO argues gold at $1,600 an ounce in the next 12 months would “not be a stretch” (Reuters). “Gold will ultimately go above $2,000 and I think it’s going to go in steps so I could see $1,600 this year,” he tells The Street.

Mark Cutifani: The CEO of AngloGold Ashanti Limited (NYSE:AU) see gold range-bound between $1,300 and $1,500 an ounce in 2011 (The Street)

Rick Rule: The founder of Global Resource Investments, which was acquired by Sprott Inc. (TSE:SII), expects “some event-driven spike in metals prices.” “I have no earthly idea where gold will close, but to be a good sport and play the game, I’ll say $1,750,” he says (SeekingAlpha)

Aaron Regent: CEO of Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:ABX) tells The Street he believes the “forward curve would suggest a gold price in the $1,500 range” (The Street)

Ian McAvity: The founder of the Central Fund of Canada (CEF), Central Gold Trust (GTU), and Silver Bullion Trust (SBT.U) expects a “monetary panic” in the dollar or euro to push gold to $2,000-$2,400 per ounce this year or in 2012 (SeekingAlpha)

Mark Bristow: The CEO at Randgold Resources Ltd. (NASDAQ:GOLD) expected gold to rise as high as $1,500 an ounce (The Street)

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS): The investment bank has set a gold price target of $1,512 an ounce for gold in 2011 (The Street)

Ross Norman: The co-founder of TheBullionDesk.com is looking for gold to trade between $1,350 and new all-time highs of $1,850 per ounce (SeekingAlpha)

The Street reader survey: Of the almost 6,000 people who have taken The Street’s gold poll, 47 percent believe gold prices will finish between $1,500 and $1,800 an ounce in 2011 (The Street)

James Turk: The founder and chairman of online precious metals vendor GoldMoney.com sees gold sprinting much higher “probably in the first half” of this year to $2,000 per ounce (SeekingAlpha)

Charles Oliver: The senior portfolio manager of the Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund, Oliver sees currencies around the world continuing to plummet in 2011. He expects that will push gold up to $1,700+ by the end of the year (SeekingAlpha)

Adrian Ash: A researcher at BullionVault sees individual savers moving into gold bullion this year as negative real interest rates erode buying power. That could push gold 20 percent higher this year to $1,695 an ounce (SeekingAlpha)

Richard O’Brien: The president and CEO of Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM) sees gold eventually rising to $1,750 an ounce by 2012 thanks to the protection the metal provides against inflation. In 2011, he sees gold trading between $1,350 and $1,500 an ounce (Reuters)

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When should I sell my gold?

Ultimately, the question of when to sell your gold comes down to whether or not you believe the existing fiat currencies can survive the looming inflation.

If you’re holding gold as an investment or a way to protect your capital from inflation, you still need an exit plan. Ultimately, the question of when to sell comes down to whether or not you believe the existing fiat currencies can survive the looming inflation – or perhaps even hyperinflation – that many analysts see on the horizon.

A call-in commentator on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour recently asked the host when he should plan to sell his gold.

“It’s going to be when the currencies collapse, and it’s going to be when governments come up with a new currency order,” Puplava says.

“Maybe they’re going to monetize it. They’ll monetize gold. They’ll have to have some kind of gold backing because we know the fiat system is in its end game route right now. All fiat currencies are depreciating. And it may be that they come up with regional currencies.”

Puplava envisions an Asian Block, a European Block and a North American Block of currencies all backed by some sort of tangible asset.

“By the time you have a currency collapse,” he says, “people no longer trust the paper. So, if they’re going to come up with any kind of solution, they’re going to have to come up with a solution that’s going to give the currency … some kind of credibility, and I think it will probably be the re-monetization of gold. At that point, you’re going to have your exit strategy.”

I’m not entirely convinced that the Euro, the Dollar and the Yuan are doomed. It’s almost too difficult to fathom. But it’s clear that we’re in extraordinary times. Countries around the world are in a race to de-value their currencies as they try to lessen their debt burdens. If one of those countries defaults or spirals into hyperinflation, the problem could spread globally, and the implications might be worse than we’d like to admit.

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Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) moves higher on Morningstar’s list of top-performing mutual funds

The Tocqueville Gold Fund has edged out the PIMCO Real Estate Real Return Strategy A (PETAX) mutual fund for the No. 2 spot on Morningstar’s top mutual fund performers YTD. That puts it behind only the Dynamic Gold and Precious Metals I (DWGOX) mutual fund, another gold-focused fund that’s returned some 50 percent YTD.

The Tocqueville Gold Fund has edged out the PIMCO Real Estate Real Return Strategy A (PETAX) mutual fund for the No. 2 spot on Morningstar’s top mutual fund performers YTD. That puts it behind only the Dynamic Gold and Precious Metals I (DWGOX) mutual fund – another gold-focused fund that’s returned some 50 percent YTD. The Tocqueville Gold Fund has returned just shy of 36 percent YTD, and here’s a look at its Top 10 biggest holdings as of Aug. 31, 2010:

Holding % of Total Assets Ticker
Physical Gold 7.2% n/a
Osisko Mining Corporation 6.2% TSE:OSK
Randgold Resources Limited – ADR. 4.5% NASDAQ:GOLD
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. 4.4% NYSE:IVN
Eldorado Gold Corp (pvt) 4.1% NYSE:EGO
Andean Resources 4.0% TSE:AND
IAMGOLD Corporation 3.8% NYSE:IAG
Silver Wheaton Corp (pvt) 3.6% NYSE:SLW
Newmont Mining Corporation 3.5% NYSE:NEM
Goldcorp, Inc. 2.9% NYSE:GG

Compare their holdings with Dynamic Gold and Precious Metals I (DWGOX) mutual fund, and you’ll see Tocqueville Gold Fund’s more conservative – although there are quite a few overlaps. Namely, both funds count the following stocks in their Top 10 holdings:

  • Osisko Mining Corporation (TSE:OSK)
  • Eldorado Gold Corp (NYSE:EGO)
  • Andean Resources (TSE:AND)

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