We believe the trend is temporary, but there are worrying signs that investor interest in gold is waning. Here are three:
1) ETFs are pouring physical gold into the market. The impact of gold and silver ETFs on bullion prices cannot be understated, and last year, gold ETFs saw the lowest level of bullion intake since their inception in late 2004 (per IBTimes). That’s worrying enough, but in 2012, gold-based ETFs are actually selling off more gold than they’re taking in. That’s flooding the market with physical gold. Already in April, ETFs have sold off more than six tonnes of gold.
2) “The froth is coming off.” Pundits and authors have started venturing into the press with warnings that the gold and silver “bubble” is about to pop. One of the leaders of the bubble camp is Yoni Jacobs, author of Gold Bubble: Profiting from Gold’s Impending Collapse – a book that hit shelves yesterday. “The froth is coming off,” he says in a recent interview.
His reasoning for sounding the warning bell? Sellers have started out-numbering buyers. Last September, when the bottom fell out under gold prices, volume was extremely heavy – and that’s a bearish sign for the future. In addition, gold mining stocks are performing like gold’s glory days are long since past. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is down 20 percent over the past six months while the Gold ETF (GLD) has essentially stayed flat.
3) India’s government is trying to put the brakes on gold consumption. The government of the world’s largest gold consumer and importer is attempting to slow gold imports and consumption via taxes. The country doubled gold import duties from 2 percent to 4 percent. In addition, they’re levying a 0.3 percent tax on gold jewelry as the country’s struggling to contain a growing trade deficit.
The new taxes and the weak rupee have collided to push down gold jewelry and bullion sales by as much as 70 to 80 percent on a daily basis, per the Economic Times. “The demand is almost negative compared to previous years,” Ashish Mundhra, director of Chennai-based Mundhra Bullion, told the paper.
Still, not every agrees this is the end of the end for gold. And we definitely don’t either. In fact, we see this as one of the best time to buy shares in gold and silver mining stocks. We could be wrong, but we don’t think the U.S. economy is out of the woods yet. And with Bernanke at the helm of the Federal Reserve, we’re a lot more nervous about the future of the dollar than we are over the future of gold and silver.
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Markets are jumpy right now. Investors are positioning themselves for an announcement from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday morning. Bernanke will speak from his annual pow-wow with several others central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. While many were anticipating Bernanke would announce more economic stimulus (just as he did last year after the Jackson Hole meeting), that notion seems to have gained a lot less traction in recent days. That’s lent some strength to an otherwise ailing dollar and pushed investors into riskier trades – particularly equities.





In a sign of the times, the SPDR Gold Trust actually surpassed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) to become the world’s largest ETF yesterday (per 

1) Slow and steady wins the race. The fundamental case for gold and silver hasn’t changed, but investor perception has. Whatever the cause of silver’s violent 30 percent plunge, the aftershocks of that move will likely continue for several months. Meanwhile, gold’s proven that its support won’t be knocked out so easily. Over the past month, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV) has shed nearly 18 percent of its value. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:GLD) has actually appreciated 0.4 percent during the same time span. That shows unflappable support for the yellow metal even as panic seemed to set in for commodities across the board. When the muck truly hits the fan, there’s nowhere safer than gold.



Physical gold ETFs are particularly popular with hedge funds. Take John Paulson’s New York-based Paulson and Co. hedge fund, for example. As the single largest shareholder in GLD, Paulson’s fund holds some $4.3 billion in gold via the ETF. That’s good for 8 percent of GLD’s total value.



iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), Volume 38 million shares The world’s largest silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust currently holds 10,764 metric tons of silver. That’s a lot of ingots. The SLV is the second-strongest performer on our list of the Top 10 gold and silver ETFs, getting shown up only by the Ultra Silver ETF (a double-long silver ETF). With an average volume around 38 million, SLV is easily the most active gold and silver ETF on the market. 12-month performance: +107 percent
SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), Volume 17.4 million shares Among the most well-known ETFs on the exchanges, it’s more common to hear the SPDR Gold Trust referred to by its ticker: GLD (that’s when you know you’ve made it). The GLD currently has a market cap of more than $56 billion. 12-month performance: +26 percent 




One of the toughest parts of investing is being in the right stocks at the right time. In general, sectors move together on a combination of factors: the macroeconomic outlook, changes in demand, materials costs and the regulatory outlook among other things. Based on those considerations, here are the sectors that I believe have the best prospects for a break-out year in 2011:


1) Precious metals. For several years now, Paulson’s been urging investors to buy gold. Just based on monetary expansion alone, he said last year, gold could hit $2,400 an ounce. Tack on significant inflation on top of that, and gold prices at $4,000 an ounce aren’t out of the question. Paulson’s gold positions in 2010 netted him a return of 45 percent, and he’s still optimistic that gold will outperform for the next 5 years calling it “the ideal vehicle to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar,” 














