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Copper supply in 2011 expected to fall short by 500K tons

Expect a worldwide deficit of about 500,000 tons of copper this year, according to The Australian. The looming threat of a supply crunch has helped push copper prices to a record levels above $10,000 per ton.

Major copper mining companies have benefited handsomely from the surge in prices. Xstrata PLC (PINK:XSRAF), one of the world’s top four biggest mining companies, saw its revenue rise by 34 percent last year on the strength of rising commodity prices, the company reported Tuesday. Profits jumped 700 percent after earnings were impacted by restructuring in 2009. Analysts expect copper and iron ore miner Anglo American PLC (PINK:AAUKY), which will announce its full-year earnings on Feb. 18, to show equally impressive numbers with Thomson Reuters calling for a 100 percent increase in profits in 2010.

Still, some writers have cautioned that copper’s price gains aren’t so much a result of incredible demand as they are the product of shrinking supply. That could lead traders to get too bullish on commodities since copper’s price movements are lauded for deducing the world’s economic health. The red metal’s supposedly so good at indicating the health of economies that its even got its own nickname: Dr. Copper.

“Even if global economic growth was modest, copper prices would be high, as we saw in late 2009 and early 2010,” writes Javier Blas at FT.com. Indeed, copper output at the world’s largest listed copper miner Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX) fell 5 percent last year and Xstrata cautions that onerous regulation and a lack of skilled labor and engineers is making copper production increasingly difficult.

The net result? High copper prices are here to stay, and this year’s 500,000 ton shortfall might not look so bad compared to what’s coming in the future.

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How to Invest in Copper

Copper has surged from just under $3 per pound to just shy of $4 a pound over the past calendar year. That’s a gain of 33 percent, and that means copper has risen faster than the price of gold over the same period of time. There are a number of real and perceived reasons for the rise, but chief among them has to be the looming threat of inflation. If the dollar continues to fall, the true cost of copper will rise relative to the fall in the dollar. That – coupled with growth in India and China – has investors pouring into the conductive metal ore.

Copper isn’t as glitzy or glamorous as gold or silver, but in many ways it feels safer. Since copper is regularly used in electronics, it’s consumption per person (particularly in the developed world) has been on the rise for decades. So how does one invest in copper?

The simplest way, of course, is through the purchase of copper mining stocks or ETFs. Here’s a quick primer on some of the players in the industry a jumping off point for further research:

1) Try a copper ETN. Want to get some exposure to copper without investing in a single company? Try the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE:JJC). This copper ETN invests in copper futures contracts traded on the COMEX. JJC is up 30.7 percent over the past year with most of that rise (23 percent) taking past over the past three months.

2) Invest in specific mining stocks. ETNs and ETFs offer a measure of protection against the extreme price volatility inherent in investing in a single copper company, but the promise of large gains is also limited. Investing in a moderate-growth copper mine could outstrip performance in the iPath Copper ETN (JJC). Here’s a look at a few copper stocks of note:

  • Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX): A mature and stable company with a market cap of $50+ billion, FCX mines copper and gold
  • Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO): Another large company with a diverse portfolio of mines, Rio Tinto extracts aluminum, diamonds, coal, even uranium and gold in addition to copper
  • Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO): A focused copper miner, shares in SCCO have surged 20 percent in the past month
  • Augusta Resource Corp. (AMEX:AZC): A smaller, more speculative play on copper and silver, AZC owns the Rosemont copper property in Arizona. The stock’s up just 1 percent over the past month, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it pop if the price of copper continues to rise
  • Taseko Mines Limited (AMEX:TGB): A riskier copper play, TGB has see-sawed in price as the Canadian government green-lights then red-lights TGB’s fabled Prosperity mine. The latest news is TGB won’t be allowed to mine the Canadian Prosperity mine, but I’m not so sure of that. If the company does get the green light, this stock will be back over $6 in a day or two. Keep an eye on it for further developments.

Related

Lackluster day for gold stocks despite powerful market rally

The dollar dropped an average of roughly 1 percent against the Pound and the Euro. The Dow rallied 208 points (1.99 percent), and the FTSE was up 2.65 percent. What’s going on with gold? Despite an early surge on the New York NYMEX, the yellow metal spot price and corresponding stocks couldn’t keep pace with other equities. Here’s a handful of the most obvious underperformers in gold stocks:

  • Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL), +1.01 percent
  • Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE), +0.46 percent
  • Richmont Mines Inc. (AMEX:RIC), +2.12 percent
  • DRDGOLD Ltd. (NASDAQ:DROOY), +1.21 percent
  • Allied Nevada Gold Corp. (AMEX:ANV), +0.75 percent

The best performers were the international majors who are more tied to basic materials. Among them:

  • Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX), +4.56 percent
  • Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP), +5.26 percent

It appears better-than-expected earnings have created a micro-bubble, that could present some excellent short opportunities – particularly in the technology and basic materials stocks. In two weeks, earnings will taper off, and I expect reality to start setting in.

The ECRI, for instance, is pointing to a recession. Alan Greenspan’s calling for a double dip, and I’m try to free up capital and move into dividend stocks after my shorts blew up in my face today. I want to short at the top, and I think we’ll have that opportunity in the next two weeks – no matter what sector you’re in.







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How to Invest in Copper

Copper isn’t as glitzy or glamorous as gold or silver, but in many ways it feels safer. Since copper is regularly used in electronics, it’s consumption per person (particularly in the developed world) has been on the rise for decades. So how does one invest in copper? Read on.