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Posts Tagged ‘Comex’

Ballooning silver stockpile on Comex doesn’t bode well for silver investors

As of last Friday, Comex-approved vaults held 141.59 million ounces of silver. Stockpiles haven’t been that high since Reuters started tracking COMEX silver in 2002. That means its been at least a decade since the Comex’s depositories have had this much of the white metal on hand.

Why? In part, we have the miners to thank. They’re pulling silver out of the ground faster than at any other time in history. GFMS believes mine output probably got close to 770 million ounces last year. If that’s true, that would be another record year for silver miners.

More importantly, though, it seems investors have started losing interest in silver (at least for the time being).

“When you are seeing people delivering into Comex, it is typically because they have nothing better to do with the metal,” Mitsui Precious Metals analyst David Jollie told Reuters.

I guess that means you can think of the Comex as the buyer of last resort, but in general it’s a sign that investor interest in silver is low at the moment.

So far, the trend at the Comex hasn’t been mirrored by the spot price in silver, but I’d take it as a sign that the big fish are swimming out of silver in search of new watering holes. Retail investors don’t deliver into Comex – investors who control millions of dollars do. Even if you don’t agree with them, I’d be cautious in the near-term.

Related

Gold margin requirements history on the COMEX

The Comex is owned and operated by the CME Group, which acquired the Comex on August 22, 2008. The CME Group sets gold margin requirements based on volatility in the futures market. The more frothy the markets, the higher the CME sets margin requirements. Here’s a full list of the changes to Tier 1 gold margin requirements for COMEX 100 gold futures contracts since 2009:

Jan. 8, 2009

Initial: $5,807.70
Maintenance: $4,302

Jan. 22, 2009

Initial: $5,398.65
Maintenance: $3,999

Aug. 21, 2009

Initial: $4,499.55
Maintenance: $3,333

Dec. 15, 2009

Initial: $5,402.70
Maintenance: $4,002

Feb. 12, 2010

Initial: $6,747.30
Maintenance: $4,998

April 30, 2010

Initial: $5,738.85
Maintenance: $4,251

Nov. 16, 2010

Initial: $6,075
Maintenance: $4,500

Jan. 21, 2011

Initial: $6,751.35
Maintenance: $5,001

June 20, 2011

Initial: $6,075
Maintenance: $4,500

Aug. 11, 2011

Initial: $7,425
Maintenance: $5,500

Aug. 25, 2011

Initial: $9,450
Maintenance: $7,000

Sept. 26, 2011

Initial: $11,475
Maintenance: $8,500

Feb. 13, 2012

Initial: $10,125
Maintenance: $7,500

Source.

Related

Silver margin requirements history on the COMEX

The Comex is owned and operated by the CME Group, which acquired the Comex on August 22, 2008. The CME Group sets silver margin requirements based on volatility in the futures market. The more frothy the markets, the higher the CME sets margin requirements. Here’s a full list of the changes to Tier 1 silver margin requirements for the COMEX’s 5,000-ounce silver futures contract since 2009:

Jan. 8, 2009

Initial: $8,640
Maintenance: $6,400

Jan. 22, 2009

Initial: $8,100
Maintenance: $6,000

May 28, 2009

Initial: $9,450
Maintenance: $7,000

June 26, 2009

Initial: $8,100
Maintenance: $6,000

Aug. 21, 2009

Initial: $5,400
Maintenance: $4,000

Dec. 15, 2009

Initial: $6,075
Maintenance: $4,500

Feb. 12, 2010

Initial: $6,750
Maintenance: $5,000

April 30, 2010

Initial: $5,737.50
Maintenance: $4,250

June 7, 2010

Initial: $6,750
Maintenance: $5,000

Nov. 11, 2010

Initial: $8,775
Maintenance: $6,500

Nov. 16, 2010

Initial: $9,787.50
Maintenance: $7,250

Dec. 17, 2010

Initial: $10,462.50
Maintenance: $7,750

Jan. 21, 2011

Initial: $11,137.50
Maintenance: $8,250

March 25, 2011

Initial: $11,745
Maintenance: $8,700

April 26, 2011

Initial: $12,825
Maintenance: $9,500

April 29, 2011

Initial: $14,512.50
Maintenance: $10,750

May 3, 2011

Initial: $16,200
Maintenance: $12,000

May 5, 2011

Initial: $18,900
Maintenance: $14,000

May 9, 2011

Initial: $21,600
Maintenance: $16,000

Sept. 26, 2011

Initial: $24,975
Maintenance: $18,500

Feb. 13, 2012

Initial: $21,600
Maintenance: $16,000

April 16, 2012

Initial: $18,900
Maintenance: $14,000

Source.

Related

Copper margin requirements history on the COMEX

The Comex is owned and operated by the CME Group, which acquired the Comex on August 22, 2008. The CME Group sets copper margin requirements based on volatility in the futures market. The more frothy the markets, the higher the CME sets margin requirements. Here’s a full list of the changes to copper margin requirements for COMEX copper futures contracts since 2009:

Jan. 8, 2009

Initial: $7,762.50
Maintenance: $5,750

Aug. 21, 2009

Initial: $6,075
Maintenance: $4,500

Dec. 15, 2009

Initial: $4,725
Maintenance: $3,500

April 30, 2010

Initial: $5,737.50
Maintenance: $4,250

June 7, 2010

Initial: $6,750
Maintenance: $5,000

Sept. 2, 2010

Initial: $5,400
Maintenance: $4,000

Dec. 17, 2010

Initial: $6,412.50
Maintenance: $4,750

Jan. 21, 2011

Initial: $5,737.50
Maintenance: $4,250

Sept. 26, 2011

Initial: $6,750
Maintenance: $5,000

Oct. 4, 2011

Initial: $7,762.50
Maintenance: $5,750

Feb. 13, 2012

Initial: $6,750
Maintenance: $5,000

Source.

Related

Stock market crash looming on horizon?

The 30 percent plunge in silver prices over the past two weeks could be an early warning signal that there’s something going wrong in the markets. I’d even go so far as to say it’s starting to look like 2008 out there. That’s got a lot of investors moving into defensive positions, and that doesn’t bode well for stocks. Here are five signs that it might be time to lighten up your portfolio:

1) New margins on the CME. Changes in initial margin requirements for Comex silver futures have gotten most of the press. A series of recent hikes drove silver margins up 84 percent in just 8 days. What’s gotten slightly less press is the news that the CME Group didn’t limit their margin hikes to silver alone. Margin requirement for crude oil climbed from $6,750 to $8,438 on Tuesday, May 10. The United States Oil Fund LP ETF (NYSE:USO) is down 12 percent since the start of the month. “Increases in margin requirements have a history of triggering selling,” David Kotok, the Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors, writes at FinancialSense. Kotok noted that his fund is raising cash on the heels of the CME Group’s “game-changing” margin hikes.

2) Bullish on healthcare. It’s always a bad sign when investors start moving into healthcare stocks. Like utilities, the sector is one of few that consumers can’t cut back on when times get tight. Consider this: of the 10 S&P sectors, healthcare has performed the best this year. It’s up 14.9 percent, per Reuters. A lot of people with a lot of money apparently see signs that it’s time to get defensive.

3) The end of QE2. The Fed’s still doing its best to inject more money into the economy with QE2, but we all know that program’s due to end next month. When it does, the cash sloshing around in the stock markets could dry up quickly (just as it did at the end of QE1). Credit Suisse expects at least a 10 percent drop in equities at the end of QE2, according to Reuters. Value investor Jeremy Grantham’s calling for a 30 percent drop in stocks.

4) Weekly Leading Index. The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) is closely watched by professional traders thanks to its ability to forecast economic growth. In recent weeks, the WLI has flattened and slowly started edging downward – most recently from 6.6 percent to 6.4 percent. It’s an indication that economic growth is slowing. If regional manufacturing reports due out this week from New York and Philadelphia confirm the trend, the bears could again take the upper hand. And they just might as manufacturers suffer with higher input costs thanks to rampant energy inflation.

5) The debt ceiling debate. For all the drama surrounding the debt ceiling debate, I think Washington realizes they’re truly jeopardizing faith in the dollar. If the ceiling isn’t raised, it would be tantamount to a default on U.S. debt; something that even the most hard-line Tea Party member should realize isn’t a good thing. Even Speaker of the House, John Boehner (R-Ohio), has said as much: “They’ve pushed the date back, pushed the date back, pushed the date back. But it’s clear to me that at some point we’re going to have to raise the debt ceiling.” That should alleviate short-term fears of a bond default, and – coupled with the end of QE2 – move investors back into bonds and the dollar.

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5 reasons to ditch your silver investments today

Silver price volatility and the intense media coverage of the white metal is making it difficult to decide which side of the fence to stand on. Now more than ever, it’s important that investors remove emotions from the equation and take a fresh, rational look at their silver holdings.

Long-term, I’m still a silver bull, but the case against the metal in the near-term seems to be growing every day. Let me play devil’s advocate and give you five reasons to ditch your silver investments:

1) Over-reacting to inflation. There’s certainly an industrial component to the silver story, but inflation has been the primary driver for the metal since it bottomed in 2008. Still, as Pradeep Kandasamy at SeekingAlpha, points out, silver has over-reacted to the threat of inflation. The monetary base has increased by 100 percent since the launch of QE1 nearly three years ago.

Gold’s price rise perfectly mirrors the expansion of the money supply (up roughly 100 percent over the same time period). Silver, though, has rocketed up 300 percent, Kandasamy writes. That’s even after the recent crash! Late last month, silver was up 400 percent from it’s October 2008 lows. If silver is responding to inflation, it’s clear that response was too fast and too furious.

2) Uncharted waters. We constantly find ourselves referring back to the 1980 highs in the silver market as an indication that the metal has plenty of room to run. After all, if we adjust silver’s 1980 high for inflation, the metal actually hit prices above $130 an ounce.

We have to weigh those numbers against what the Hunt Brothers were doing, though. The two sons of a wealthy Texas oil baron almost single-handedly cornered the market in the white metal. At one point, they held nearly $4.5 billion of silver in bullion and futures contracts! (See my post Silver Thursday, the Hunt Brothers, and the collapse of a precious metal for more on silver’s last record run). If we take the Hunt Brothers out of the equation, it’s hard to argue that silver prices would have gone as high as they did.

3) New margin requirements. It’s not just the COMEX that’s making it harder on silver speculators. Now, we’ve learned that the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange (HKMEx) has also raised margin requirements on silver futures contracts (per TheStreet). Periods of extreme price volatility in the silver market don’t just ratchet up the price of the metal, they also ratchets up the risk involved. That forces the COMEX and HKMEx to protect themselves by driving up margin requirements (see my post Why does the COMEX raise silver margin requirements? for more). Likewise, hedge fund managers and financial institutions likely ease off their positions and/or hedge their precious metals holdings during periods of extreme volatility as risk ratchets up.

4) ETFs losing steam. One of the more pervasive arguments against silver in the short-term is the relative under-performance of the silver ETFs, which could indicate that retail stock investors are losing interest in the metal. Yesterday, for example, the New York spot price for silver rose from $33.25 to more than $34.50 – a gain of 3.8 percent. Nonetheless, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV) shed nearly 1 percent of its value (including the after-hours bounce). If the trend away from SLV continues, silver spot prices will fall as the silver tail starts wagging the dog.

5) Opportunity cost. Even though I’m optimistic about silver prices six months from now, that’s a long time to leave your investments languishing. If you do foresee a lengthy period of consolidation in precious metals, it makes sense to park your cash somewhere else for the next few months. Every long position you hold, after all, means you can’t be invested somewhere else. That’s the definition of “opportunity cost.” While silver languishes, opportunities in other sectors will emerge. Park your money there until silver resumes its upward climb.

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Why does the CME Group raise silver margin requirements?

One of the most interesting storylines in the collapse of silver prices this week comes from the small confines of the silver futures market. Here’s the question: did the dramatic hikes in silver margin requirements by the CME Group lead to or worsen the fall in silver prices?

To answer that chicken-and-egg question, we’ve got to understand why the CME Group adjusts silver margin requirements in the first place. To put it bluntly: they do it to protect their own interests. Any sign of froth or increased volatility in the silver futures market potentially exposes the CME Group to losses.

When investors buy a silver futures contract on the NYMEX, they’re doing it with substantial credit (also known as “margin”) that’s funded by the CME Group. When volatility spikes, the CME Group takes on more risk since rapid price changes could lead to dramatic losses for their clients. If the losses are too large, investors may not be able to pay back the money they borrowed from the CME Group.

Since the start of the year, we’ve watched silver prices surge from $30 to nearly $50 an ounce. During that time, the CME Group has been forced to raise margin requirements on the NYMEX 5 times. Last week, margin hikes and announcements of upcoming hikes got particularly aggressive. Initial rates went from $14,513 to $16,200 on May 2, and they’ll climb again to $21,600 at the close of business on May 9. To put that in perspective, it cost less than $5,000 a year ago to buy a silver futures contract controlling 5,000 ounces of silver.

Of course, it makes sense that the higher the price of silver, the more it should cost to buy rights to 5,000 ounces of the metal. What’s got a lot of investors upset, though, is the pace and scope of the increases. Apparently, the CME Group felt the need to explain itself, too. Kim Tyler, president of CME Clearing, went on the record with the Wall Street Journal arguing that the new margin requirements had little or nothing to do with the change in silver prices.

“We try to make changes in a way that we can telegraph to the market, so that participants have notice. We try to be routine and predictable and provide no surprises,” she told the paper. However, that “notice” has frequently been as short as 24 hours, giving investors little time to re-balance their portfolios. That generally forces the weaker positions out of the market. And when volatility is high, that selling could lead other investors to jump ship, too.

The margin hikes by the CME Group may be getting unfairly maligned, though. It’s clear the NYMEX needs to protect its interests, too. And there’s an ever-growing array of paper investments in the silver market (i.e. ETFs) that make prices in the small silver market more volatile than they otherwise would be. We can’t know for sure that the CME’s changes provided the spark that set off the silver powder keg, but once the ball got rolling downhill, there was little the CME could have done (or avoided) to stop the plunge in prices.

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Time to short silver?

If there’s one rule I’ve learned in investing, it’s that ignoring the old saying “the trend is your friend” can lose you a whole lot of money. Stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities are all cyclical. And while I believe that the long-term trend in silver is up (reference my post yesterday: 3 reasons the rally in gold and silver prices is far from over), it’s clear that support for the white metal is breaking down in the short-term.

In part, we have the CME Group to thank for that. The Comex’s owner announced that it was raising margin requirements for the metal for the third time time in a week. As of the close of business on Monday, new initial margin requirements for silver have climbed from $14,513 to $16,200 per contract, according to BusinessWeek. Margins have risen more than 280 percent from $4,250 over the past 12 months.

The CME Group adjusts margin rates when it fears volatility in the markets could expose the company itself to losses. If metal falls too fast, for example, some traders may be unable to cover their losses – and that’s tantamount to a default that cuts into CME’s profits.

“Silver is often the lead indicator for changes in trends, or at least for corrections,” an analyst at Societe Generale SA wrote in a note to clients (per BusinessWeek). Right now, the lead indicator is pointing down.

And physical silver ETFs probably aren’t helping the situation. Stocks like iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) and the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (NYSE:PSLV) trade on exchanges just like shares in companies. They take the equity they get from investors, though, and use it to purchase physical bullion. When investors move out of the ETFs, SLV and PSLV sell bullion from their physical stockpiles.

Since ETFs are so easy to move in and out of, many investors fear they’re injected even more volatility into the already-volatile silver market. That steepens both climbs and sell-offs in the metal.

The most damming signal yet that the end may be near for silver, though, comes from a number of noted hedge funds and hedge fund managers that have started moving out of the metal. Among them? George Soros, Passport Capital’s John Burbank, Alan Fournier of Pennant Capital and Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management (the company that happens to manage the Sprott Physical Silver Trust).

Inflation may be imminent, but your best bet on making money might be shorting one of the world’s most popular inflationary hedges. We can logically justify why an asset should move in a particular direction, but all we know in the end is the trend. And you shouldn’t have much trouble identifying the trend if you look at silver’s recent charts.

Not sure how shorting works? Check out my post: How to short silver.

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New silver margin requirements go into effect today

For the eighth time in the past year, the CME Group has raised silver futures margin requirements. The rules, which went into effect at the close of market yesterday, apply to dabblers in the 5,000-ounce silver futures contract. Per the new rules, the initial deposit to purchase a contract has climbed from $11,745 to $12,825. The cost for holding a contract overnight is up from $8,700 to $9,500 – nearly a 10 percent jump.

The move comes after a blistering 17 percent climb in silver prices during the course of a week. Trading stalled just shy of the $50 an ounce mark, with silver hitting an intraday high of $49.82 in Asian trading Monday. That was too far, too fast, according to the suits at the Comex, and they quickly moved to reign in volatility.

One writer called for tighter Comex margins before the news became public on Monday. On Sunday night, Dian L. Chu argued that the CME should move to increase margin requirements by 30 percent.

“With (the) gold/silver ratio setting a new 28-year low record almost everyday in April, it looks like the necessary elements are already set in motion for another horrid crash-and-burn contagion scenario,” Chu wrote.

Indeed, Chu fears any amount of tightening by the Comex might not be enough to offset a massive silver sell-off that could spill over into other commodity markets. And we’ve already seen something of a correction in the silver space. After prices hit $49.82 on Monday, they collapsed more than 8 percent in 24 hours.

A number of factors outside of the Comex’s new silver margin requirements might have been at play, however. For one, investors likely locked in prices after silver hit $49 an ounce – just $1 shy of its 31 year high. Uncertainty over the Fed’s next move has set in now, too.

We’ll have a better idea of the Fed’s plans after the Federal Open Market Committee wraps up a two-day meeting today. In an uncharacteristic move, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will address the media this afternoon. Call it a grand finale to the FOMC’s closed-door meetings. Rest assured investors and analysts will be poring over Bernanke’s words with a fine-toothed comb for any hint of future policy direction.

Most assume Bernanke will reiterate previous hints that QE2 will indeed end on time and that interest rates will remain near-zero for the foreseeable future. If we get any indication whatsoever that an interest rate hike is around the corner or QE2 will end early, yesterday’s 8 percent drop in silver prices will probably look like child’s play – and there will likely be a whole lot of margin calls on the Comex.

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