Custom Search



Posts Tagged ‘Ben Bernanke’

Five reasons Ben Bernanke hates the gold standard

Here are five reasons why Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hates the idea of moving the U.S. off its fiat currency:

1) The gold standard helped create the Great Depression. Pegging the dollar to gold led to financial panics during the Great Depression Bernanke argued during a recent speech at George Washington University (per Politico).

“The gold standard would not be feasible for both practical reasons and policy reasons,” he said. “I understand the impulse, but I think if you look at actual history the gold standard didn’t work well.”

I disagree as much of the world operated on some form of precious metals-based monetary standards between the late 1700s and the 1970s. Financial panics occur when the public loses faith in a government’s ability to meet it debt obligations (and it doesn’t matter if that country’s operating with a gold standard or a fiat currency). Rather than a history of failed gold standards, I think it’s more likely that the world will look back on fiat currencies as something that “didn’t work well.”

2) There’s not enough gold to go around. Bernanke claims this is one of the biggest problems with a return to the gold standard. In fact, the move would just require valuing gold at a much higher level. The often-quoted figure is $10,000 per ounce.

3) Less control over the economy. It’s no secret that the Fed uses the dollar as way to manipulate the economy. It gooses a tough economy with easy cash or it caps off a good economy with higher interest rates when it shows signs of overheating. If the U.S. returned to a gold standard, the Fed would no longer have that control.

4) Fiscal discipline would be imposed. Washington’s putting lots of pressure on the Fed to ensure the country can continue offering touch-point social programs: things like Medicare and Social Security. So long as Washington is unwilling to make cuts to those programs, the Fed will have little choice but to keep printing money to pay for them.

5) Gold standards benefit creditors. Gold standards inject price stability into an economy. That means governments can’t “inflate” their way out of debt by printing more “cheap” cash to pay off long-standing bills. Putting the U.S. on a gold standard with a national debt north of $15 trillion would be a form of financial suicide. Bernanke knows that, and the rest of Washington does, too. That’s why they’re publicly lobbying against a gold standard. If another country moves to it first, though, we may not have any choice but to follow.

Related

8 signs we’re headed for a bear market in stocks

Stocks are flirting with a 20 percent decline from market highs in April. A 20 percent decline is the generally-accepted definition of a bear market, and it looks more and more like we’re headed for the dreaded bear country. Here are 8 key signs that we’re a long way from a recovery:

1) The ECRI. There’s just one institution that can legitimately claim to have “never been wrong” at predicting a recession. That’s the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), and last Friday they sounded the warning bell. “Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession,” the company wrote on its Web site, “and there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off.”

If the ECRI is right this time, they’re predicting the official unemployment numbers could rise from 9 percent as high as 15 percent. That would put the “unofficial” unemployment numbers closer to 25 percent.

2) “Close to faltering.” Even Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged widespread weakness yesterday when he warned the U.S. economy is “close to faltering.”

“Recent indicators, including new claims for unemployment insurance and surveys of hiring plans, point to the likelihood of more sluggish job growth in the period ahead,” Bernanke told Congress. He hinted that the Fed is prepared to take more action if things worsen. The markets liked that, but it’s a clear indication that we’re far from out of the woods.

3) Manufacturing contraction. For the first time in two years, the Global Manufacturing PMI dipped below 50 – the cut-off line that differentiates growth from contraction. The measure hit 49.9 in August – a low we haven’t seen since June 2009. Things are even worse in Europe where the manufacturing index fell below 50 for the second month in a row.

4) Death to the Hang Seng? Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which includes shares of many of China’s largest companies, sealed up its worst quarter in a decade when the market closed on Friday (per BusinessWeek). All told, the index shed 22 percent in three months. Hang Seng shares haven’t seen losses that steep since September 2001.

5) European contagion. Goldman Sachs slashed their forecasts for U.S. growth in the first quarter of 2012 to a paltry 0.5 percent. “The European crisis threatens U.S. economic growth via tighter financial conditions, reduced credit availability and weaker growth of U.S. exports to the region,” Goldman economist Andrew Tilton said (per the Financial Post). “This impact is likely to slow the U.S. economy to the edge of recession by early 2012.” Late last week, Goldman also published a report arguing that developed markets don’t just face a downturn but rather have a 40 percent chance of economic stagnation for the next five years.

6) Greek debt default looms. Yes, the EU’s frantically trying to find some way to stop Greece from defaulting on its debt, but the long-term picture for the country doesn’t look good. If they don’t get a bailout by November, Greece will have to start defaulting on pensions, salaries and bonds (per CBS). Even if they do get a bailout, it’s unclear how the government will be able to manage a debt load that stands at 150 percent of GDP. Recently, investors grew so pessimistic on three-year Greek bonds, the interest rates rose above 100 percent.

7) Class warfare. Doom and gloom newsletter writers have been talking for years about the coming civil unrest in the U.S. It’s something I’ve started realizing doesn’t just happen in other countries. Protests in Greece and Italy are so common they rarely make the international news. And now, Wall Street’s dealing with its own set of protestors. In a matter of weeks, Occupy Wall Street has spread from New York to Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle and Boston. Now, several unions are getting in on the act, too (per CNN). High unemployment and a lack of opportunities leads to civil unrest – no matter where you live.

8) Down with bonds. Moody’s downgraded Italy’s government bonds yesterday from Aa2 to A2 (per the Financial Post). Funding’s getting harder and harder to get for the weakest European governments, and that means they’re going to be forced to slash their spending. That doesn’t bode well for consumer-driven economies abroad or at home.

Official government numbers may not show that we’re in a recession yet, but the signs are clear. In the words of ECRI co-founder Laksman Achuthan, “you haven’t seen anything yet.”

“A new recession isn’t simply a statistical event,” Achuthan writes. “It’s a vicious cycle that, once started, must run its course. Under certain circumstances, a drop in sales, for instance, lowers production, which results in declining employment and income, which in turn weakens sales further, all the while spreading like wildfire from industry to industry, region to region, and indicator to indicator. That’s what a recession is all about.”

Related

Photo credit: svilen001.

Silver price to hit $150 an ounce within the next 12 months?

The steady upward march in gold and silver prices has the power to seduce investors into thinking that the trend is going to continue indefinitely. I’ll go ahead and tell you now that’s it’s not. Markets are ultimately driven by supply and demand, and what’s driving silver prices right now is the extraordinary growth in the money supply. So long as the Fed keeps pumping cash into the economy, the dollar will continue to weaken and that means higher gold and silver prices.

The most important question then is, “How far will silver prices go before they peak?” Global Investing Strategist at Money Morning, Martin Hutchinson, was brave enough to make a prediction over at MoneyMorning.com. His call? We’ll see silver prices at $150 an ounce within the next 12-18 months.

How likely is $150 silver within a year?

Since silver prices are, in large part, dictated by policies set by the Federal Reserve, we’ve got to look at the Fed’s roadmap for the next year to get an idea of where silver prices are headed. Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has already made it clear that interest rates will remain near-zero through at least 2013. That gives banks at least another 15 months of cheap cash to pump into the economy.

If we are going to see a mania in silver prices, it’s going to happen before the Fed raises interest rates. That means 2012 could be the sweet spot for silver prices – particularly if the Fed embarks on another round of quantitative easing (something Bernanke hasn’t ruled out).

Outside of the Fed’s actions, we can look to the gold-silver ratio for an indication of where silver prices are headed, Hutchinson argues. During the height of the silver mania in 1980, the ratio of silver to gold briefly touched 16:1. If that were the case today, silver prices would be at $113.25 an ounce. Instead, silver’s trading at $40.66 an ounce for a silver-gold ratio of 44:1.

Hutchinson believes the gold:silver ratio can’t hit the extremes of the 1980s for two main reasons: 1) The silver market was being manipulated by the Hunt brothers (see my post Silver Thursday, the Hunt Brothers, and the collapse of a precious metal for more); and 2) Industrial demand for silver declines when the silver price spikes.

Still, Hutchinson doesn’t rule out silver hitting a 25:1 ratio to gold. If that plays out, then every dollar gold goes above $2,500 an ounce, silver should climb higher than $100 an ounce. I’m convinced we’ll see gold prices above $2,000 an ounce by the end of the year (reference 10 reasons why we’ll see gold over $2,000 an ounce), and Hutchinson’s equally convinced gold will re-touch it’s inflation-adjusted high of $2,500 an ounce that was hit in 1980. He even speculates gold could approach prices near $5,000 an ounce (the 1980 peak adjusted for growth in the world’s money supply). If that happens, it’s difficult not to see silver prices north of $150 an ounce.

No matter where the price ultimately goes, it’s clear silver’s in an uptrend that should continue for at least a year and possibly as long as two years. Keep an eye on Fed policy for a barometer of just how high silver could go.

Related

QE3 is coming soon to an economy near you

With bad economic news piling up, it’s looking more and more like QE3 is just around the corner. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke certainly left the door open after the annual Jackson Hole symposium late last month. “(We have a) range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus,” Mr. Bernanke.

And the speculation is that an announcement of some sort will come as soon as Sept. 21 at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Rather than buying up even more short-term treasuries, though, analysts believe the Fed could announce plans to sell off short-term notes to buy longer-term bonds. The move’s been dubbed “Operation Twist” (per Bloomberg) because the ultimate goal would be twisting the yield curve, so that short-term rates rise while long-term rates fall. That would drive down interest rates on big-ticket items like cars and houses.

It’s not much in the way of stimulus, and some economists believe it may just be a delay tactic by the Fed to give the impression that they’re “doing something” before a full-blown, large-scale QE3 gets announced later in the year or early next year.

The danger, of course, is that the Fed could wait too long. By then, it may be “too little, too late.” And that’s exactly what the so-called Dr. Doom economist Nouriel Roubini has been arguing. Roubini believes that once the Fed finally moves to start a full-blown intervention (QE3), it will target ailing state and local governments. He just doesn’t think it’ll be enough to prevent another recession.

My gut’s telling me that the Fed could surprise a lot of people on Sept. 21 (including Mr. Roubini) by announcing aggressive new forms of monetary easing. The bad news has just gotten too bad to ignore without watching the U.S. slip back into another recession.

Friday’s jobs report led to another sell-off in the stock market when the government showed zero job growth in August. That goose-egg for job growth shows we’re flirting not with the prospect of slow growth but a shrinking economy that could edge toward double-digit unemployment again.

It’s hard to underestimate the impact jobs have on a consumer-oriented economy. Without jobs people don’t have income to burn. And turning around the job situation is like navigating a gigantic boat with a single oar.

Mr. Bernanke himself has said in the past that it would take a year of 5 percent economic growth in the U.S. to lower the unemployment rate by a single percentage point. Since we’re a long way from 5 percent economic growth, it’s hard to believe the president and congress isn’t putting pressure on the Fed to act. There’s too much at stake. And that’s got me convinced we’re going to see QE3 sooner rather than later.

Related

METAL SEDUCTION


Why invest in gold?


FIGHT BACK


How to resist the new world order


THINK AND GROW RICH


Top 10 new investing books for 2011


A BRAND NEW CURRENCY


Gold standard in the U.S. by 2016?


THE ANTI-DOLLAR


How to invest in the Swiss franc


THE WHITE METAL


Why invest in silver?


3 reasons the rally in gold and silver prices is far from over

Silver investors got a rude awakening at the start of trading yesterday. Spot prices for the metal tumbled more than 12 percent in early-morning Asian trading on Monday. We’ve heard a lot of excuses for the manic plunge, the most prominent of which is an unexpected surge in silver margin requirements on the Comex that went into effect at the close of trading on Friday.

Regardless of the reason, precious metals investors are jittery. But I’m far from convinced the decade-long bull market in gold and silver is drawing to a close. Here are three reasons why investors should consider staying the course:

1) The fundamentals haven’t changed. Everyone knows gold and silver coins and bars don’t actually do anything. They’re pretty to look at, but they don’t pay dividends and you can’t use them to pay for gas at the local Speedway (not yet anyway). The fact that they don’t do anything, though, is what makes them valuable. Precious metals are finite. The government can’t make more.

The government can, however, print more dollars. As the total number of dollars in circulation increases, the laws of supply and demand kick in. Suddenly, those greenbacks buy less gold and silver. In dollar terms, the “value” of your gold and silver goes up.

Beginning investors understand as much, but they still argue that it’d be better to hold something else, oil perhaps, or real estate. Unfortunately, there are problems inherent in oil and real estate – particularly during periods of rapid inflation.

Think back to 2008 when oil screamed up to record highs around $140 a barrel. Prices for just about everything else started rising, too, and that ultimately ground the global economic engine to a halt. Before long, oil was trading at $40.

How about real estate? If you’ve got enough cash to buy a sprawling apartment complex, I’d recommend doing so. You could get a low-interest loan, steady returns and a fair degree of insulation from inflation (so long as you have the ability to raise your rental rates every year). If you don’t have that kind of cash, though, the costs of entry in the housing market are too high and the market too illiquid to be practical for most investors.

That leaves gold and silver. The market is small, volatile and often stomach-churning, but the barriers to entry are low, and the metals are good at what they do: acting as a store of value during periods of high inflation.

Make no mistake that inflation has arrived, either. Official numbers might peg it shy of 2 percent, but if you calculate inflation the way our government did just 20 years ago, we’re already living with double-digit inflation. That means those dollars you’ve got sitting in your bank account are shrinking … and that’s not good for anyone.

2) 10 percent inflation is just the beginning. The Federal Reserve has made it clear that they’re going to see QE2 through to the bitter end. The massive bond-buying program is slated to end in June, but that’s two more months of massive capital injections. On average, the Fed is pumping $2.5 billion into the economy every day.

$2.5 billion is a vague number that’s hard to digest, but think about the fact that the Federal government nearly shutdown three weeks ago when Congress couldn’t come to an agreement on trimming a mere $39 billion from the 2011 fiscal year budget. QE2 is pumping that much cash into the economy every two weeks!

On top of that, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated his promise to keep interest rates near zero for the “foreseeable future.” It’s all fuel for an inflationary fire that’s already smoldering. And the danger is, the Fed won’t be able to put that fire out without rapidly raising interest rates – something that would threaten to topple the U.S. into yet another recession.

3) Corrections are normal. Markets never move in a straight line. Rapid price run-ups are tempered by corrections and consolidation periods. Of course, it’s hard to remember that when you’re watching the net value of your portfolio crumple in a short-term sell-off. Rest assured, though, there are lots of long-term gold and silver bulls out there – even at the world’s biggest investment banks.

“Gold has hit our target of $1500-1600 and the long term target for next few years is $2000-3000,” Merrill Lynch analysts wrote last week (per Barron’s). “Silver should consolidate near-term as it challenges its all-time high – support is in the low $30’s. Longer-term, silver should re-challenge $50 and then target a move toward $80 (an ounce).”

What happens in the near-term is anyone’s guess. Just don’t buy the hype and get out of precious metals altogether. Gold and silver’s brightest days appear to lie ahead.

No love for gold and silver mining stocks

The next boom in gold and silver space might not be in the physical metals themselves but rather in the shares of mining companies. Silver mining stocks are up just 5 to 10 percent on average this year (per Forbes). By comparison, silver bullion’s rallied more than 43 percent since the start of the year and 171 percent over the past 12 months. Gold has trailed silver’s performance, but it’s still clocked gains of 30 percent over the past year.

Once mining companies start turning those price gains into robust earnings, sentiment toward the stocks just might change – even with all the noise and volatility in the spot market. It’s profits, after all, that do the talking. And we’d do well to listen.

Related

WHAT REALLY CAUSED THE CRASH?


Silver price manipulation? New margin requirements lead to 13 percent plunge


IS ‘CHINA’S FACEBOOK’ A SCAM?


5 reasons NOT to invest in the RenRen IPO


GOLD IS THE NEW SILVER


Gold-silver ratio: Is momentum shifting towards gold?


ARTIFICIAL MARKETS


Silver market manipulation can’t be ruled out


HOW TO MAKE MONEY OFF REVIEWS


Angie’s List IPO: Is Angie’s List stock a buy?

I’LL SHOW YOU MY RESUME IF YOU SHOW ME YOURS


3 reasons to buy LinkedIn shares during IPO

Gold-silver ratio: Is momentum shifting towards gold?

For the first time in weeks, gold noticeably out-performed silver. On Friday, New York spot silver prices fell 2.1 percent from $49 to $47.94. Gold, on the other hand, spiked powerfully from $1,539 to $1,565.70 – a gain of 1.7 percent.

Is it time to re-allocate some of your silver holdings into gold? Could we be witnessed a shift in investor sentiment? No one knows for sure, but the powerful upswing in gold prices while silver sat by languishing was enough to give me pause. Here are some possible explanations for the shift:

1) Big money is moving in. In the wake of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s reassurance that QE2 will NOT end early and that interest rates will NOT rise anytime soon, the last few vestiges of risk in the precious metals markets were removed (at least for the next two months as QE2 plays out). With more risk removed from the equation, hedge and mutual fund managers may have felt more comfortable making bets on precious metals. If that’s the case, those deep-pocketed funds tend to favor gold over the more volatile silver market.

2) Gold’s playing catch-up. Since Jan. 1, silver has rocketed up nearly 55 percent from $31 to $48 an ounce. During that same time frame, gold’s clocked gains of just 12.6 percent. With those sorts of numbers, the argument that silver prices are more subject to industrial demand starts wearing thin. According to the Silver Institute, industrial demand accounts for nearly half of the total demand for silver. If the rest of the demand for silver is coming largely from investors, you’d expect gold to be up about half as much as silver (i.e. 25 percent or more on the year). This could be a case where the silver market has gotten ahead of itself, and it’s gold’s turn to catch up.

3) Technical trading. Silver sellers came out in full force after the metal finally breached its all-time nominal high of $49.45 on Thursday. I suspect silver could have trouble climbing over that psychological barrier again. Once, it does, though, I fully expect silver to outperform gold moving forward. Let’s just call this a temporary bump in the road.

Related

BLIND LEADING THE BLIND


Why has the media gotten silver price forecasts so wrong?


THE COMING SURGE IN SILVER


5 reasons silver prices will spike in May


SOCIAL NETWORKING WAR HEATS UP IN CHINA


RenRen IPO’s biggest hurdle might be PengYou


ARTIFICIAL MARKETS


Silver market manipulation can’t be ruled out


HOW TO MAKE MONEY OFF REVIEWS


Angie’s List IPO: Is Angie’s List stock a buy?

THE FACEBOOK OF CHINA?


3 MORE reasons to invest in the RenRen IPO

5 reasons silver prices will spike in May

I’ll admit silver prices had me nervous before the conclusion of the FOMC meeting yesterday. Any hint from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that an interest rate rise or a premature end to QE2 was in sight could have caused a massive sell-off in the silver market.

Instead, Mr. Bernanke reiterated his insistence that inflation is tame and interest rates will remain near zero for an “extended period.” With that, the cloud of uncertainty hovering over the precious metals market was parted, and investors re-upped their holdings in gold and silver. Silver spiked $3 an ounce from an intraday low near $45 to more than $48.50 – a gain of nearly 8 percent. I expect more of the same in May, and here are five reasons why:

1) Pedal to the metal for QE2. Mr. Bernanke’s keen to avoid the mistakes Japan made during its “Lost Decade” in the 1990s. Japan embarked on its own quantitative easing then after a sharp contraction in asset prices threatened price deflation. While the idea was sound, the Fed believes Japan’s failure was in ending quantitative easing too soon. That eventually led to stagflation and more QE down the road. The U.S. won’t make the same “mistake.” Never mind the fact that no one knows for certain whether QE can create self-sustaining economic growth. Mr. Bernanke’s signaling he’ll keep forging ahead despite protestations from the Chinese, the Eurozone and scores of smaller, more inflation-vulnerable countries around the world.

Not only will the Fed see QE2 to its conclusion, its reinvesting dividends from its bonds back into the Treasurys market (what Jim Puplava at FinancialSense calls QE2.5). That means inflation’s here to stay – at least through the end of June. That’s bad for the dollar and good for silver and gold.

2) Industrial demand. It’s hard to deny that a cheap dollar is good for the economy. American exports become more competitive, which helps domestic companies generate better earnings and, in turn, leads to more hiring. So long as global economic growth doesn’t stall, silver will continue to face growing industrial demand. Some estimates claim industrial silver consumption accounts for 60 percent of total silver demand (per Forbes). Couple that with growing demand from investors, and you’ve got a commodity that’s poised to keep ripping higher (at least until high oil prices start denting global economic output).

3) The momentum trade. Inflation expectations drive the price of gold and silver. Right now, though, it’s clear that momentum’s on silver’s side. Gold’s rallied to a series of record highs since the start of the year, but it’s still up just 6.3 percent since Jan. 1. Silver on the other hand has risen more than 55 percent. That’s got a lot of writers and analysts worried that the metal’s price has went parabolic. If that is indeed the case, there could be a lot more room for the metal to run (at least through the end of QE2).

4) No price records yet. While much has been made in the media about the all-time record high of $50 an ounce for silver set in 1980, it’s important to remember that number is nominal. If we adjust silver’s record high for inflation, we get a price of $131.49 per ounce (per the Wall Street Journal). Keep in mind that silver prices were squeezed by the Hunt Brothers’ attempt to corner the market in the 1980s, but I’ve long believed that argument carries too much weight. The Hunt Brothers, after all, weren’t trying to corner the gold market, and gold prices rose nearly as dramatically in 1980. Precious metals fundamentally respond to inflation – a condition that was rampant 30 years ago. The same condition exists today, and it’ll likely get worse before it gets better.

5) Asset allocators eying precious metals. While portfolio managers have long recommended investors allocate 5 percent of their portfolios to precious metals, there are indications that professionals are steering the masses toward bigger bets on gold and silver. Anthony Welch of Sarasota Capital Strategies tells Barron’s he’s heard some advisors recommending investors allocate as much as 20 percent of their holdings in the space. If hedge fund and mutual fund managers follow suit, silver prices could indeed be at risk of climbing too fast. In the meantime, though, the skies look sunny in May.

Related

BLIND LEADING THE BLIND


Why has the media gotten silver price forecasts so wrong?


GOLD’S TURN TO SHINE?


Gold silver ratio pointing to higher gold prices?


SOCIAL NETWORKING WAR HEATS UP IN CHINA


RenRen IPO’s biggest hurdle might be PengYou


ARTIFICIAL MARKETS


Silver market manipulation can’t be ruled out


SLOWING DOWN THE SILVER SURGE


New silver margin requirements go into effect

THE FACEBOOK OF CHINA?


3 MORE reasons to invest in the RenRen IPO

New silver margin requirements go into effect today

For the eighth time in the past year, the CME Group has raised silver futures margin requirements. The rules, which went into effect at the close of market yesterday, apply to dabblers in the 5,000-ounce silver futures contract. Per the new rules, the initial deposit to purchase a contract has climbed from $11,745 to $12,825. The cost for holding a contract overnight is up from $8,700 to $9,500 – nearly a 10 percent jump.

The move comes after a blistering 17 percent climb in silver prices during the course of a week. Trading stalled just shy of the $50 an ounce mark, with silver hitting an intraday high of $49.82 in Asian trading Monday. That was too far, too fast, according to the suits at the Comex, and they quickly moved to reign in volatility.

One writer called for tighter Comex margins before the news became public on Monday. On Sunday night, Dian L. Chu argued that the CME should move to increase margin requirements by 30 percent.

“With (the) gold/silver ratio setting a new 28-year low record almost everyday in April, it looks like the necessary elements are already set in motion for another horrid crash-and-burn contagion scenario,” Chu wrote.

Indeed, Chu fears any amount of tightening by the Comex might not be enough to offset a massive silver sell-off that could spill over into other commodity markets. And we’ve already seen something of a correction in the silver space. After prices hit $49.82 on Monday, they collapsed more than 8 percent in 24 hours.

A number of factors outside of the Comex’s new silver margin requirements might have been at play, however. For one, investors likely locked in prices after silver hit $49 an ounce – just $1 shy of its 31 year high. Uncertainty over the Fed’s next move has set in now, too.

We’ll have a better idea of the Fed’s plans after the Federal Open Market Committee wraps up a two-day meeting today. In an uncharacteristic move, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will address the media this afternoon. Call it a grand finale to the FOMC’s closed-door meetings. Rest assured investors and analysts will be poring over Bernanke’s words with a fine-toothed comb for any hint of future policy direction.

Most assume Bernanke will reiterate previous hints that QE2 will indeed end on time and that interest rates will remain near-zero for the foreseeable future. If we get any indication whatsoever that an interest rate hike is around the corner or QE2 will end early, yesterday’s 8 percent drop in silver prices will probably look like child’s play – and there will likely be a whole lot of margin calls on the Comex.

Related

BLIND LEADING THE BLIND


Why has the media gotten silver price forecasts so wrong?


GOLD’S TURN TO RALLY?


Gold silver ratio pointing to higher gold prices?


WHAT ABOUT THE MINING STOCKS?


Top 10 best silver mining stocks over the past six months


HOTELS ARE SO PASSE


HomeAway IPO: 3 reasons to invest


MORE THAN A RALLY


Silver conspiracy rumors gaining street cred

THE FACEBOOK OF CHINA?


3 MORE reasons to invest in the RenRen IPO

Silver price forecasts hinge on Fed meeting

The breathless run-up in silver prices has investors eying a Wednesday afternoon press conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Here’s what we think will happen: Mr. Bernanke will praise the success of QE2. Since the start of the Fed’s quantitative easing program in August, the stock market’s up nearly 30 percent, unemployment’s down 0.3 percent (from 9.5 to 9.2) and the government’s (significantly rigged) inflation numbers look tame with growth of 2.7 percent year-over-year.

Mr. Bernanke’s also expected to reiterate that QE2 will end as scheduled in June. The gigantic cash spigot will be shut off. That doesn’t mean, of course, that the Fed will immediately stop injecting the economy with cash. They’re fully expected to keep re-investing the interest off the bonds they’ve already purchased. Without Japan and China, someone’s going to need to prop up bond prices, after all.

Of course, we’ve all known the end of QE2 was coming since the day it began. Perhaps the end of QE2 is already priced into the market in the short term. What’s more pressing is where the Fed stands on raising interest rates. If Mr. Bernanke so much as hints that an interest rate rise is imminent, silver prices could collapse. Rising interest rates would strengthen the dollar and slow down rampant inflation. If Mr. Bernanke hints that we’re still half a year away from tightening, silver prices just might break through the hallowed $50 an ounce high-water mark.

A run above $50 an ounce is a mixed blessing. It’ll make a lot of people a lot of money, but it could also be the start of the parabolic silver mania that investors like Jim Rogers are worried about. Rogers (the creator of the International Commodities Index) was on Financial Survival Radio last week saying he hopes silver prices correct in the near-term because he wants to buy more.

If silver prices don’t correct, Rogers worries they could keep climbing dangerously fast – the hallmark of a parabolic move – and perhaps even flirt with prices over $100 an ounce. Such high prices would also indicate that the world’s fed up with the Fed’s over-extended check book.

Already we’re seeing signs that international investors and governments want nothing to do with the dollar. The greenback has tumbled nearly 8 percent (as indicated by the dollar index) since the start of QE2. At some point, the piper must be paid. We can stretch it out over 10 years like the Japanese did during their “Lost Decade,” or we can move aggressively now.

Of course, Mr. Bernanke and his closest cohorts believe Japan’s troubles lingered on for years because the country’s quantitative easing program was too small. That leads me to believe interest rates aren’t going to get tightened anytime soon. If I’m right, the party in silver might just be getting started.

Related

BLIND LEADING THE BLIND


Why has the media gotten silver price forecasts so wrong?


THE DAY THE SILVER MARKET DIED


Silver Thursday, the Hunt Brothers, and the collapse of a precious metal


ARE WE NEARING THE TOP?


How to short silver


ARTIFICIAL MARKETS


Silver market manipulation can’t be ruled out


THE DEATH OF U.S. BONDS


How to short bonds with ETFs before the collapse

SILVER AT $100 AN OUNCE?


Could we see $100 silver prices in 2011? Jim Rogers says yes

No bubble here: Mainstream media quiet on record prices for gold and silver

After surging 10 percent since late January, gold prices spiked to an all-time record high of $1,440 an ounce on Tuesday. The mainstream media was conspicuously absent in reporting the news.

“This is an indication that gold and silver remain far from the ‘bubbles’ that some have suggested,” writes Goldcore. “Speculative manias and bubbles are characterized by mass participation and widespread enthusiasm and ‘irrational exuberance’ by all sectors of society including the media and particularly the retail investor and the ‘man in the street.’”

The “lack of animal spirits in the sector” could indicate we’ve got a long way to go before gold and silver reach mania levels. Indeed, much of the movement in gold and silver since January hasn’t been investing so much as safe-haven buying as a hedge against possible worsening in the Middle East.

“You have political problems all over the world, a Federal Reserve bank that still erred on the side of easing rather than tightening, rising commodities prices in general, and growing disdain for fiat currencies generally,” Dennis Gartman, author of the Gartman Letter, a daily investment newsletter, tells Reuters. “It will be illogical for gold not to be going higher.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve bank’s quantitative easing program has helped prop up the gold and silver markets by spurring fears of inflation and contributing to rising food costs around the world. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee this week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated his intent to sustain loose monetary policy.

It’s difficult to fault the Fed for refusing to rein in QE2. Bernanke and Co. have all but backed themselves into a corner. With oil shooting upwards of $100 a barrel, the timing couldn’t be worse to pull the plug on lax lending. Not only would businesses face higher input costs, they’d face higher borrowing costs as well, and that might be enough to lock up the employment market just as its showing signs of thawing.

The danger here is oil rises even higher, economic output falls, and businesses and consumers are forced to hunker down and stop spending. More stimulus might be needed at a time when the Fed’s got little ammo left in its gun. Rumors of a QE3 would undoubtedly push gold and silver even higher. It would happen quickly, too. In fact, it’d probably be fast and obvious enough for the mainstream press to give it considerable ink. If that lead to wholesale gold buying by the general public, the “animal spirits” would truly be on the prowl, and we’d see gold and silver prices that sounded laughable just a few years ago. Fears of a bubble might be justified in just such an environment. But right now, it looks like all is clear.

Related

HUNT BROTHERS 2.0


Silver market manipulation can’t be ruled out


GOLDEN ARCHES


Gold price target in 2011: $1,800+


BLACK GOLD


Is $200 a barrel oil in our future?


FERTILE GROUND


How to invest in fertilizer stocks


A NEW STANDARD


Not enough gold in the world to return to a gold standard, Bernanke says

SHIMMERY SILVER


Top 5 reasons to invest in silver bullion







Zecco Forex Online Foreign Exchange Trading

Killer Articles

Top 10 best gold and silver ETF funds

Here’s a look at the Top 10 best gold and silver ETFs that trade on major U.S. exchanges. We’ve ranked them by volume, as some of the niche ETFs in the precious metals market are so... Read on.

3 reasons NOT to invest in Groupon’s IPO

An IPO date hasn’t been set, but here are three big warning signs you might want to consider before investing in Groupon’s stock... Read on.

From start-up to titan: The unofficial tech IPO calendar for 2012

From Facebook to Twitter to Groupon, the planned tech IPOs in 2012 could be among the most exciting string of new public companies... Read on.

How to invest in water stocks

Often overlooked as a commodity, water supplies could become increasingly critical as emerging economies around the world improve their diets and demand more agricultural resources for the production of meat... Read on.

World’s largest economies in 2050 will look very different

India’s rapid ascent to economic supremacy will be driven by a surging working age population, which will grow more than 40 percent between now and 2050... Read on.

How to invest in cotton stocks

If you’d like exposure to cotton markets without delving into futures and options contracts, a handful of cotton ETNs and cotton-related stocks are available... Read on.

How to buy Chinese Yuan

The Chinese yuan or renminbi has risen about 5 percent a year over the past five years, and some investors argue that China’s currency is still undervalued by 40 percent. If the dollar suffers ... Read on.

Five cheap franchises to start with less than $10,000

Franchises are so ubiquitous we often don’t realize we’re shopping at one. From McDonald’s to Hampton Inns and doggie day cares to campgrounds, they’re literally everywhere. All told, franchises account for 10.5 percent of all businesses in the U.S, and they... Read on.

Why invest in silver?

Ask 10 people why you should invest in gold and silver, and you’ll probably get 10 different answers – many of which will be accompanied by a shrug. Most investors don’t understand the motivation for holding gold or silver bullion. Nonetheless, it’s been difficult to ignore... Read on.

How to Invest in Copper

Copper isn’t as glitzy or glamorous as gold or silver, but in many ways it feels safer. Since copper is regularly used in electronics, it’s consumption per person (particularly in the developed world) has been on the rise for decades. So how does one invest in copper? Read on.