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Netflix stock performance predictions for 2011 (NFLX)

Twelve months ago, you could have bought a share of Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) for $72. Let’s call those the good old days. Since then, Netflix has screamed up more than 200 percent with 26 percent of those gains coming since the start of 2011. A single share will now set you back $221.

My finance and I have an ongoing argument about shares in Netflix. She feels like the company has started exiting the growth phase with a one-way ticket to Value Stock Valley. Yes, she’s got some valid arguments: the company DOES face more realistic competition (ala Facebook, Amazon, Hulu, etc.) than it did a year ago, and I’ll readily admit they could use a better selection and more new releases (which will only come at the expense of margins). Still, I’m optimistic about Netflix’s stock performance in 2011. Here are three reasons why:

1) Global domination. A Credit Suisse note out yesterday titled “Don’t Stop Believing,” gave Netflix two very enthusiastic thumbs up with an analyst there upgrading the stock from Neutral to Outperform. The reason? International growth. Credit Suisse predicts Netflix’s subscriber base will triple to 69 million subscribers by 2016 on the strength of growth abroad.

Apparently, The Canada Experiment has been a good one so far. When Netflix opened its doors to subscribers in the north late last year, Credit Suisse predicted they’d reel in 300,000 subscribers by the end of 2011. That was a pitifully low estimate. After just six months, Netflix has 900,000 subscribers in Canada. Online streaming is the future, and there’s no one better positioned to capitalize on that future than Netflix – no matter what country you’re in. (FYI: Credit Suisse raised its price target on Netflix’s stock from $180 to $280).

2) One ring does not rule them all. Fears over Netflix’s competition feel overblown to me. It’s as if we believe people only want to stream video from a single source. Riiiiggght. I’ve got a Netflix account, but I still occasionally rent movies via Amazon’s online rental service. I still check videos out from the Blockbuster kiosk at my local Speedway, and very occasionally I log onto Hulu (even though the site’s ads make me want to vomit). Just because I can watch The Dark Knight on Facebook for a one-time fee, I’m not going to run out and cancel my Netflix account. We’re used to seeking out entertainment from multiple services. That’s not going to change because Facebook starts offering a small, boutique-y selection of movies.

3) Shoot the networks. In a move that could shift power away from networks and studios like HBO and Showtime, news broke last week that Netflix is wading into the content production pool. The company struck a deal with the film studio Media Rights Capital to produce an original series that will stream exclusively on Netflix servers starting late next year. Kevin Spacey will star in a political drama dubbed “House of Cards.” The series, which is being billed as “a satirical tale of power, corruption and lies,” will be directed by the rather brilliant David Fincher (whose portfolio includes The Social Network, Seven, Fight Club and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button). It’s a big roll of the dice for Netflix – and it’s one that I fully expect to pay off.

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One Response to Netflix stock performance predictions for 2011 (NFLX)

  1. Tom says:

    Looks like your “finance” was right.

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