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Archive for the ‘REITs’ Category

Why are REIT yields so high? (AGNC, CIM, RSO)

For months, I’ve argued that REIT yields are high due to investor fear of stocks that mentions words like “adjustable-rate,” “mortgage-backed” or “pass-through securities.” I just stumbled across an interesting article at Fool.com that argues there more be less apparent reasons for the high-yields on REITs like American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC), which is yielding 19+ percent, Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE:CIM), which is yielding 17+ percent and Resource Capital Corp. (NYSE:RSO), which is yielding 14+ percent.

The REIT play is only good so long as the Fed keeps lending rates down Fool.com argues. Once the spreads on interest rates go down, so will the profits at AGNC, CIM and RSO. Since, the REITs are required to pay out 90 percent of their income to shareholders, the only way for them to maintain their growth will be through dilutive share offerings, which will drive down the yields.

Currently, Fool.com argues, REITs are paying out a lot because they’re getting subsidized by the government. While that argument may hold water two years from now, I don’t see the logic in selling off the stocks in favor of lower-yielding dividend plays right now. Why not wait until the Fed’s rate increases look imminent before jumping ship on 19+ percent returns? That’s the question the article fails to address, and it’s the reason I’m still bullish on REITs.

Related

Life Lessons: How to make more money

Of the 13,480 individuals and families who made more than $10 million a year in the U.S. in 2008, only 19 percent of the income they brought in came from wages and salaries.* Therein lies the key to generating wealth; namely that the rich don’t “work” to make money. They put money to work for them.

Robert Kiyosaki talks about this concept a lot in his book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, and it fundamentally changed the way I approach my finances. The idea is that by putting your money into ventures or assets that generate money for you, you can exponentially increase your earnings power and grow your income while actually cutting down on the amount of time you spend working.

One area where Kiyosaki’s often vague is how exactly a person is supposed to do such a thing. He mentions buying real estate, buying car washes, buying storage units or trailer parks for rental, etc., but that’s not all that helpful for most people who are already in debt and looking for a way out.

My answer? Dividend stocks. In particular, I like REITs or Real Estate Investment Trusts. REITs are basically collections of investors who pool their capital to buy income-generating real estate such as apartment complexes or shopping malls, then share the profits with all the investors. Best of all: REITs are required by law to pay out 90 percent of their net income as dividends to shareholders. That can add up to a lot of cash with some REITs paying out nearly 20 percent a year.

Think about that, if you could somehow get $250,000 invested in a portfolio of dividend paying stocks that shell out 20 percent per year, you could be making $40,000 each and every calendar year (before taxes) without lifting a finger!

That’s the key to building wealth, and the sooner you get started, the sooner you’ll be on your way, even if you can only contribute $25 per month! At that rate, you’d be putting in a mere $300 a year, but you’d still hit $250,000 in 26 years if you could compound your rate 4 times a year (when you receive your dividends) and keep plugging away with your $25 a week contribution at 20 percent interest.

*Source: Wealth, Income, and Power by G. William Domhoff.

Time to jump ship at REITs Macerich (MAC) and AvalonBay (AVB)?

There’s not much I like more than a high-yielding REIT. I’ve been accumulating positions in REITs like American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC) and Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE:CIM), both of which have yields over 17 percent, for months. But some of their competitors are showing worrying signs. Among them? The Macerich Company (NYSE:MAC) and AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (NYSE:AVB).

Despite yielding 4.6 percent, Macerich-investors have taken some confidence-crumbling potshots in recent days as insiders at the company have started shedding shares. Chairman and CEP Arthur Coppola sold 252,275 shares on Sept. 2 and Sept. 3 for $11 million, according to Barron’s. That was the biggest one-man orgy of insider selling at the company in the past six years. Macerich’s CFO, Thomas E. O’Hern, joined in the fun, too, dropping 9,500 shares on Sept. 2 (good for $410,000).

Why now? Two obvious reasons: 1) The company lowered their dividend in May to 50 cents; and 2) the stock’s up 19+ percent year-to-date. What’s not obvious is what they see in the stock’s future that made them pick early September for a sale. Are they feeling weakness in the housing markets? Or are they anticipating another dividend drop? Who knows, but it looks like they’re not alone.

“In general in the last week or so there’s been increased selling at REITs,” Ben Silverman, research director at InsiderScore.com, told Barron’s.

They were joined by AvalonBay, where insiders (including the company president, Timothy J. Naughton) have sold $10.5 million in stocks over the past month. Selling AVB seems to make a bit more sense to me. The stock’s up 62 percent in the past 12 months, and it’s above the share price it hit in the months before the Great Recession took hold.

Insider selling’s difficult to interpret, but it’s hard to argue that company honchos sell when they’re expecting big gains and good news in the coming months.

Options pointing to a buy for American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC)?

American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC) triggered a low Put/Call volume alert, according to Market Intellisearch – a sign that investors are almost all in consensus on the upward momentum in a stock. AGNC averaged 3.80 calls traded for each put contract, good for a Put/Call ratio of 0.26.

Indeed, the stock seems to be in the midst of a surge as it approaches its late-September dividend. It’s a familiar refrain for high-yield REITs like AGNC. The stock fumbles around for two months after its dividend, then starts a surge as dividend-hungry investors move back into the stock.

It’s hard to resist a yield that’s approaching 20 percent, after all, and there are lots of REITs out there offering just that. Among them? Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE:CIM) with a 17.2 percent yield and Resource Capital Corp. (NYSE:RSO) with a 16 percent yield. They’re so attractive, in fact, they look like buy-and-holds to me – especially when the Dow’s in negative territory on the year.

Price target on Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE:CIM)? How about $4.25

Improvement in credit markets in July promoted Jefferies to reiterate a buy rating on Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE:CIM). “(Credit performance) includes the first instance of improving month over month 90-day delinquencies since the credit crisis began, and continued declines in the total delinquency rate,” Jefferies said in the report. It’s not all good news, though, Jefferies lowered their 2010 EPS estimates for the company from $0.73 to $0.70. Still, the price target doesn’t account for the stock’s 17+ percent yield, and it appears attractive in the long-term. The REIT reported a Diluted Normalized EPS of $0.20 on June 30.

Best deflation stocks and sectors

As the pendulum swings from fear of inflation to fear of deflation, investors will begin reassessing their portfolios to find good deflationary hedges. In general, dividend paying stocks are safest place to be – particularly since you’ll be earning relatively more on your dividends than you would if the inflation rate was normal or high.

Here are a few high-yielding dividend stocks (REITs) that could be of interest as deflationary plays:

  • Chimera Investment Corporation (NYSE:CIM), Current Yield: 18.53%
  • American Capital Agency Corp. (NASDAQ:AGNC), Current Yield: 20.79%

Disclosure: I’m currently invested in both of the above stocks.

Since deflation slowly erodes a company’s earnings power, it often creates a tepid environment for stocks. Inverse ETFs give investors a quick and dirty way to profit from down markets. Here are a few to research more when things get hairy:

  • ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 (NYSE:TWM), seeks twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Russell 2000 Index
  • ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (NYSE:DXD), seeks twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average
  • ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (NYSE:SDS), seeks twice the inverse of the daily performance of the S&P 500 Index
  • ProShares UltraShort Financials (NYSE:SKF), seeks twice the inverse daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index
  • ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (NYSE:SRS), seeks twice the inverse daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index
  • ProShares UltraShort QQQ (NYSE:QID), seeks twice the inverse of the daily performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index

Note: All of the above are 2X ETFs, which mean they’re leveraged 200 percent. Small changes in the market can create huge swings in the above stocks. That could mean large profits, but it could also mean enormous lossses. Always consult a qualified professional before investing.







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