The only thing that’s certain in the silver market now is uncertainty. Even after a 40 percent plunge two weeks ago, silver prices have struggled to recover, and the upcoming week doesn’t exactly have investors feeling bullish.

Many analysts are actually calling for further weakness in silver prices on decreased industrial demand. CommodityOnline warns prices could fall as low as $23 an ounce in the near-term.

It’s difficult to downplay the severity and threat Greece’s financial crisis poses for the rest of the world. Consider this: Greece’s debt now stands at 150 percent of the country’s GDP. Investors are so negative on the government’s ability to pay back that debt that the interest rate on three-year bonds there recently climbed above 100 percent (per CommodityOnline).

If the problem were isolated to Greece alone, it might not be such a big deal, but many of the holders of Greek debt are intimately tied to economies in bordering countries. BNP Paribus, Societie General and Commerzbank hold some $14.5 billion in Greek debt. The IMF, EU Loans and European Central Bank hold an additional $150 billion in Greek debt (again per CommodityOnline).

Rest assured that should the Greek government default on that debt, reverberations will take down other countries or financial institutions. That’s left investors fleeing the Euro not for gold or silver (as we’d like to see), but rather for the dollar.

Couple the strengthening Greenback with fears of a global slowdown, and the silver bears are starting to make a very compelling argument indeed. If we are on the cusp of another recession, silver and copper will be the metals that are hit the hardest (owing to significant price influence from the industrial sector).

We only have to look back to 2008 to find evidence that when investors start raising cash, precious metals don’t automatically shoot higher. Between March 2008 and the end of the year, the silver price fell nearly 50 percent from $21 an ounce to $10.50 an ounce. During roughly the same period, the S&P 500 lost more than 10 percent in one of the most brutal sell-offs in decades.

Still, you hear precious metals referred to as a safe haven investment. That’s true to some extent, but when there’s blood in the streets, don’t count on metals to rise. They’re going to fall alongside of every other major asset class. Metals only become a safe haven when inflation is rising. And you can’t get inflation if everyone’s raising cash because they’re nervous about what’s going on in Europe (and China).

“If the economy continues to weaken silver could fall as far as $21.00 an ounce,” writes George Maniere at MarketOracle.

Bearish predictions like this have me re-thinking my decision last week to go long the ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (NYSE:AGQ). AGQ is a leveraged bet that the price of silver will go up. I’m starting to consider betting against the S&P instead by buying shares in ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPXU).

I don’t say all this because I’m bearish on silver prices in the long run. I’m absolutely not. Instead, I’m afraid we could be in for a genuine market rout that’s akin to 2008′s Great Recession. I lost more money than I care to admit then by sticking to the “buy-and-hold” mantra. I don’t plan to repeat the mistake, and the recent surge in the value of the dollar is evidence that other investors feel the same.

I’ll leave you with just this warning: don’t blindly buy silver on recent weakness. Sit in cash and wait until precious metals decide which way they’re heading. Silver will have it’s day in the sun again, just don’t expect it until we know for sure we’re not on the brink of the dreaded double-dip.

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