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Archive for the ‘gold stocks’ Category

Agnico-Eagle Mines stock forecast (NYSE:AEM)

This post is part of series where we’re checking in on the Top 500 gold and silver mining stocks profiled in our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock.

Performance: First, let’s compare Agnico-Eagle’s performance against the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) – a basket of industry-leading gold stocks.

Time Span AGONF Performance HUI Performance
1 Month +9.5% +13%
3 Month +18.8% +3%
YTD +33% -12%

Agnico-Eagle Mines is one of the top-performing stocks in the HUI this year. The stock also happens to be the smallest component of the HUI with a 3.11 percent weighting. As the smallest component of the HUI, Agnico’s market cap still stands at a massive $8.28 billion. Since it’s smaller than some of its peers, though, share prices could be a bit more volatile.

Why we like Agnico: 1.66% dividend; More than 21 million ounces of gold reserves. By market cap, Agnico is Canada’s fifth-largest gold producer. In Q3 2011 alone, the company increased its production by 11 percent to 265,978 ounces of gold. According to their most recent numbers, they’ve got total proven and probable gold reserves nearing 21.3 million ounces. http://www.agnico-eagle.com/

Recent News: RBC Dominion Securities raised their price target on Agnico-Eagle to $53 a share last week. A year ago, shares were north of $70. Prices crumpled to as low as $33, though, on news that the company was forced to close its Goldex mine in Quebec due to safety concerns. On top of that, Agnico wrote off part of its investment in its Meadowbank mine in Nunavut.

RBC analyst Stephen Walker says things are finally looking up. “The company has shown its ability to ‘under-promise and over-deliver’ on its operating results and drive strong performance at its five operating mines,” he wrote in a note (per the Financial Post). “However, we believe investors expect to see the company deliver results that are sustainable and demonstrate future growth over the next 2-3 years.”

Agnico’s looking to the future with new exploration partnerships in Colombia and Alaska (with Miranda Gold) among other places.

Agnico paid out a dividend of $0.20 cents on Aug. 30. That’s up 25 percent over the company’s $0.16 dividend a year ago. Thanks to growing enthusiasm for gold and silver mining shares, I think RBC’s price target is low, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see shares north of $60 a year from now.

Check out our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock (pictured above) to uncover more undiscovered gold and silver mining stocks.

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Gold and silver bubble will ‘dwarf’ the Internet bubble

One of my favorite quotes in recent news came from Bill Murphy founder and chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA). In an interview (that I highly recommend) with Jim Puplava of the Financial Sense Newshour, Murphy argued that the price of gold and silver have been successfully manipulated for decades.

The debt crisis that’s plaguing the U.S., Europe, Japan and other countries will eventually lead to so much money-printing, though, that continuing to suppress the price of precious metals just won’t be possible. That’s when we’ll truly see a tremendous climb in prices.

“When the public comes in here in our tiny gold and silver markets, it will be a bubble, and it will dwarf what the Internet did except it will be real for a long period of time,” Murphy said. “And that’s coming.”

That’s good news for gold and silver stock holders, but it will likely be bad for everyone on the outside looking in. Since Murphy’s certain we’re nearing the tipping point for inflation (especially after the Fed signaled that QEIII is coming on Friday), he looks at buying mining shares as a no-brainer.

“It’s probably the best risk-reward situation right now as the gold and silver markets have ever seen in terms of the equities,” he says.

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Silver outperforms all other precious metals in August; Where do metals prices go now?

When Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed “will provide additional policy accommodation” to bolster the US economy on Friday, metals prices sprinted higher in an end-of-the-month surge. Silver rallied more than 4.5 percent to give it as a solid lead as the top-performing metal in August.

Precious Metals Gains, August 2012

Metal Monthly Gain
Gold +4.5%
Silver +12.6%
Platinum +8.5%
Palladium +6.6%

The moves propelled gold to a five-month high while silver’s sitting at a four-month high. Still, leading analysts seem to think the best is yet to come for metals as quantitative easing looks to be more imperative.

“We took the amount of debt owned by major countries that is going to have to roll over in the next three years,” Jim Puplava of the Financial Sense Newshour said recently. “Over 50 percent of US debt is rolling over, 50 percent of Japanese debt, German debt, (etc.), and none of these countries – whether it’s the United States or Europe or Japan – can afford a spike in interest rates. So you know sooner later we’re going to get multiple forms of quantitative easing.”

More quantitative easing means higher inflation and higher precious metals prices as the value of global currencies retreat. That really has me taking a closer look at gold and silver stocks. Many of them have been trending up over the past three months, but they’re still trading below where they were a year ago.

Let’s take a look at a small-cap silver mining stock like Great Panther Silver Ltd. (AMEX:GPL). One year ago, shares stood at $3.19. As of Friday’s close, they were trading at $1.97. If prices return to last year’s levels, that would be a gain of nearly 62 percent.

“When the public comes in here in our tiny gold and silver markets, it will be a bubble, and it will dwarf what the Internet did except it will be real for a long period of time,” Bill Murphy founder and chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) Jim Puplava in that same interview. “And that’s coming. … It’s probably the best risk-reward situation right now as the gold and silver markets have ever seen in terms of the equities.”

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African Gold Group stock forecast (PINK:AGGFF, CVE:AGG)

This post is part of series where we’re checking in on the Top 500 junior gold and silver mining stocks profiled in our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock.

Performance: First, let’s compare African Gold Group’s performance against the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) – a basket of industry-leading gold stocks.

Time Span AGONF Performance HUI Performance
1 Month +48% +13%
3 Month +6% +3%
YTD -41% -12%

African Gold Group’s following the usual trend: as a junior gold mining stock, it’s more volatile than shares in larger mining companies. When times are good, they’re really good for small cap miners. When times are bad, the declines are steeper.

Profile: African Gold Group, Inc., holds rights to five projects: three in Ghana and two in Mali. The Company’s most advanced asset is its Kobada gold project in Mali. The Kobada Trend contains an inferred mineral resource of 740,000 ounces of gold at a 0.3 g/t gold cutoff (recently upgraded to 1.1 million ounces), and the company believes that Kobada could be a multi-million ounce deposit. African Gold’s Ghana property also includes land abutting Keegan Resources’ holdings. http://www.africangoldgroup.ca/

Risks: With an average trading volume of 20,500 shares per day, volume on AGONF is low, but not too low. Just keep in mind that taking a large position in a small-cap stock means you may have to wait a long time to find buyers for all your shares. Volume is slightly higher on the CVE, where an average of 44K shares trade hands daily.

Recent News: The biggest news out of African Gold is the company’s upcoming resource estimate at its Kobada project. Those numbers are expected sometime this month.

“(Our resource estimate) will be upgraded to indicated from inferred and a percentage of that will go into measured,” company founder Nikiforuk told the Northern Miner in April. “We also anticipate a meaningful increase in grade.”

Step-out holes drilled at the site this spring included highlights of 70 metres of 1.83 g/t gold and 84 metres of 1.26 grams gold. If the company’s resource estimate is significantly higher, expect a boost in share price.

Last year’s preliminary economic assessment indicated that “the project could produce gold at US$470.90 per oz. processing 20,000 tonnes per day, for a total of 7 million tonnes a year” (per Northern Miner). The project currently boasts an inferred resource of 1.1 million ounces of gold.

Check out our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock (pictured above) to uncover more undiscovered gold and silver mining stocks.

Silver prices set to surge higher

Silver prices rocketed higher on Friday thanks to hints from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that QE3 could be around the corner. Prices for the white metal traded in a narrow range around $30.70 an ounce Wednesday and Thursday in the run-up to Bernanke’s speech.

Early Friday, prices started climbing and they didn’t stop until the markets closed. By the end of the day, silver was up to $31.74 an ounce – a gain of 4.58% in a single day of trading. The actual quote that had traders salivating is (in typical Bernanke fashion) vague:

“Taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability,” he said (per IBD).

Bernanke didn’t say the Fed “may” stimulate, he said the Fed “will” stimulate. That was all it took. Shares in gold and silver mining stocks were off to the races. Majors like Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) rose 5.2 percent and Silver Standard (NASDAQ:SSRI) climbed 7.9 percent. Some small-cap miners did even better with Great Panther Silver (NYSEAMEX:GPL) rocketing up more than 11 percent.

“My friend Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management is one of the smartest men I’ve ever met in my life and a real detail guy – and he thinks silver is going to go well above $100, and you might even be able to pick a number for silver,” Bill Murphy founder and chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) said in a recent interview with Financial Sense. “I think … people that are willing to do their homework and be patient and accumulate these cheap gold and silver shares will make fortunes in the years ahead.”

Of course, anytime there’s a run-up in gold and silver prices, it doesn’t happen smoothly. Since precious metals act as a barometer of the wider economy, political changes and economic numbers can cause large price swings. When prices are on the rise, though, it can happen violently. And it looks like we could be in the midst of another big upswing.

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Adventure Gold Inc. (PINK:AGONF, CVE:AGE) stock forecast

This post is part of series where we’re checking in on the Top 500 junior gold and silver mining stocks profiled in our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock.

Performance: First, let’s compare Adventure Gold’s performance against the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) – a basket of industry-leading gold stocks.

Time Span AGONF Performance HUI Performance
1 Month +61% +13%
3 Month +44% +3%
YTD -15% -12%

Adventure Gold’s following the usual trend: it’s more volatile than larger equities. When times are good, they’re really good for small cap miners. When times are bad, the declines are steeper. Still, AGONF’s performance over the past three months has been particularly impressive.

Profile: Adventure Gold Inc. holds rights to more than two dozen potential gold properties in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt located in north-western Quebec and north-eastern Ontario. The company plans to spend $14 million on exploration over the next five years. Most recently, Phase 2 drilling has begun on the Lapaska Property in Quebec. Highlights from previous drilling there showed 1.0 g/t gold over 103.4m including 10.3 g/t gold over 3.8m. http://www.adventure-gold.com/

Risks: Volume on AGONF is extremely low. Some days no shares trade hands. That means that even if you want to sell your shares, there might not be a buyer out there. If there is a buyer, they probably want a discount to the current quote. Volume currently averages 2,500 shares per day.

Recent News: Phase III drilling has kicked off on the company’s 100%-owned Pascalis-Colombiere gold property in the Val-d’Or mining camp in Quebec. The most promising hole showed 3.1 g/t Au over 27.0 metres. Click for more drilling results. Pascalis-Colombiere is a proven property. It yielded just over 200,000 ounces of gold for Cambior Inc. (now IAMGOLD) between 1989 and 1993. That’s a plus over more speculative explorers with unproven plots of land.

Adventure Gold had $5 million on hand as of April, and they have partnerships with two major mining companies in Agnico Eagle (Dubuisson in Val d’Or) and Lake Shore Gold and RT Minerals (Meunier-144 in Timmins West). They’re planning $2 million in drilling through next April with additional work commitments of $10 million over the next 5 years. Promising results would be a boon to the company’s shares.

Check out our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock (pictured above) to uncover more undiscovered gold and silver mining stocks.

How to pick gold stock takeover targets in 2012

“The gold miners are cheaper today versus the price of gold than at any time in this 12-year bull market,” Fred Hickey of the Barron’s Roundtable said recently (per IBT). Indeed, gold stocks are hovering near two-years low, and the mining sector is looking ripe for consolidation. Here are three tips for identifying potential gold mining takeover targets:

1) Follow the pros. One of my favorite tactics for identifying strong junior mining companies is by looking at the companies professionals are investing in. A great starting place is the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ). This ETF invests in a basket of junior gold mining stocks, and the fund regularly updates its holdings. As of right now, GDXJ holds shares in 82 companies (download the excel file here), and it reads like a who’s who in the industry – particularly when you’re looking at the miners towards the top of the list.

Right now, GDXJ likes Perseus Mining (TSE:PRU), Silvercorp Metal (NYSE:SVM), Medusa Mining (ASX:MML), Rubicon Minerals (AMEX:RBY), Endeavour Silver (NYSE:EXK), Evolution Mining (ASX:CAH) and Aurizon Mines (AMEX:AZK) among others.

2) Look at past acquisitions. Perhaps the best way to see which gold mining stocks are worthy of acquiring is by looking at past acquisitions for clues. In March, for example, Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ:PAAS) completed its acquisition of gold and silver mining company Minefinders Corp. Ltd. Let’s take a look at what made Minefinders a tantalizing takeover target:

  • A producing gold and silver mine at the multi-million ounce Dolores project in Northern Mexico.
  • 2.34 million ounces of proven and probable gold (as of 2010) as well as 119 million ounces of proven and probable silver.
  • Low cash costs of $450-$500 per gold ounce equivalent.
  • A small debt load and more than $200 million in cash before the acquisition

Find a company with similar prospects and you’ve probably identified a takeover target.

3) Positive cashflow. It seems obvious, but a lot of beginning gold and silver investors like the idea of getting in on a junior mining stock before they hit the mother lode during exploratory drilling. In my mind, that’s a lot like gambling, and I encourage investors to look instead at junior gold miners that are already pulling ore out of the ground.

The majors want to acquire companies that have made it through the often arduous permitting process, have proven reserves and are already generating cashflow. At that point, the major just needs to bring in its deep pockets and mining expertise to join in the reaping of rewards.

So, while it’s definitely tempting to try to guess which junior mining company is going to uncover the next Brucejack project, you’re a lot safer buying shares in a miner that’s already making money. It’s not as glamorous, but trust me – it’s probably more profitable.

Three reasons $6,000 gold makes sense

Despite accusations that it’s a worthless chunk of metal, gold prices have risen for the past 12 years. That’s more than a decade of net buying, and those buyers must have a good reason to keep pushing up gold’s price.

In general, I break gold buyers into two camps: defensive buyers and offensive buyers. Defensive buyers are temporarily trying to protect their wealth from effects of inflation. Offensive buyers are the so-called “gold bugs” – the investors who believe that we’re in the midst of a financial crisis that can only be resolved in one way: a string of sovereign defaults. Those offensive buyers don’t plan on selling until we have some new, multi-national gold-backed monetary system.

If we look at gold from the perspective of an offensive buyer, their predictions of $6,000 gold start to make some sense. Here are three reasons why $6,000 gold just might come about:

1) A solid track record. $6,000 sounds like an awful lot of money, but that’s actually just 4 times higher than gold’s current price around $1,590 an ounce. During the 1970s, gold went up 24 times. If we look at gold’s starting point 12 years ago around $250 an ounce and multiply that by 24, we end up at $6,000 an ounce. Gold went up that radically in the past, so it can surely happen in the future.

2) The Dow/gold ratio. Historically, the Dow/gold ratio tends to revert to 2:1. At the time of this writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stands at 12,835 and gold’s selling for $1,591. That’s a Dow/gold ratio north of 8. If the Dow were to stay at its current levels (floundering sideways in the years to come), and the Dow/gold ratio were to return to historical means, we’d be looking at gold at $6,000 an ounce.

3) Sovereign defaults seem imminent. It’s hard to believe there are countries with debt that rivals our own, but Greece is under the magnifying glass. The Eurozone “is on a path that leads to eventual dismantling,” Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors wrote in a note to clients on Monday (per IB Times), and Greece looks like it’s poised to be the first domino that falls. Sunday’s election in the country is still yet to yield a coalition government. That’s prompted warnings from the EU “that Greece would get no more payments from the $170 billion deal approved in March if it did not enact roughly $15 billion in cuts by June” (per USAToday).

If Greece stops getting bailout cash, the country would slide into default within weeks. That might not happen in June, but it seems imminent, and it would certainly raise doubts about the future of the Euro.

If people start doubting the future of a currency, gold will get a shot of adrenaline that’ll push it up rapidly. Throw a few currency defaults into the mix and there are few places besides gold to stash your cash. Viewed in that light, $6,000 gold seems more and more likely.

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Will mushrooming supply crush gold and silver prices in the years to come?

One of the most common arguments bears levy against gold and silver is the fact that record prices mean more gold and silver mines. With those mines, they argue, comes a glut of supply that could crush the precious metals markets.

One of the leading voices in this debate is Dr. Paul Walker of precious metals consultancy GFMS Thomson Reuters. At a conference last week in Dubai, Dr. Walker pointed out that it takes some $120-$150 billion of investment demand every year just to keep gold prices flat – not to mention see prices climb higher (per Resource Investor).

That a lot of cash to maintain a baseline, and I would argue that bodes well for silver prices.

“The amount of silver that’s available for investment each year is 450 million ounces and the amount of gold that’s available for purchase is about 70 million ounces, which means you have a ratio of about six-and-a-half to one is amount of silver you can buy versus gold,” Eric Sprott said in a recent interview (per ETFDailyNews).

At current prices, that means investment demand needs to grow by $13.5 billion to keep silver prices where they are. That’s far less than the $120 billion gold prices will need to stay afloat.

Still, silver prices tend to follow gold prices as both metals act as stores of value during periods of inflation. The main indicator for whether or not gold and silver prices can keep up with supply then is the expectation of inflation, and expectations are a fickle thing.

As Dr. Walker pointed out last week, it’s probably not supply that gold and silver investors should be concerned about, but rather the possibility that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in an attempt to begin strengthening the dollar. That, he argues, could be the true “Black Swan” event we’ve all been worried about.

We’re not there yet, though. In fact, we just might see all-time record high gold and silver prices again before we ever see the interest rates rise. Check out our posts Silver prices setting up for 30-year high? and Why Eric Sprott believes silver prices will triple to $100 an ounce in 2012 for more.

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How to earn $100,000 at age 15


The pros and cons of going back to the gold standard in the U.S.

In the wake of the news that Utah has officially made gold and silver into currencies, Bloomberg TV hosted some heavy hitters on to ask them point blank: what’s the case for bringing back the gold standard in the U.S.?

[Check out our post It’s law: Gold and silver approved as currency in Utah for more on the gold standard.]

“It’s the ultimate currency,” Rob McEwen, CEO of McEwen Mining, says in the interview. “It can’t be replicated quickly, and it’s a store of value that’s crossed the millenium. Right now, we’re seeing the purchasing power decrease, and they’re taking away from everybody that puts money in the bank.”

“The horse is already out of the barn,” Michael Crofton, CEO of Philadelphia Trust, retorts. “I don’t think (a gold standard) could ever work given the amount of financing we have to do; both deficit financing and just operational financing.”

If there’s enough will for a new economic model, though, politicians could make it happen. It just wouldn’t come for free. There are a number of pros and cons to a gold standard. We’ve outlined several of the biggest here based on the interview with McEwen and Crofton and our own research.

Pros of bringing back the gold standard in the U.S.

  • Reducing the likelihood of another black swan event (hyperinflation, the collapse of financial institutions, etc.) that could cripple the global economy
  • Bringing back fiscal discipline in Washington – forcing politicians to clean up programs like Medicare and social security
  • It can be done. There’s precedent for it, with many nations – including the U.S. – operating with gold-backed currency for more than 100 years
  • Price stability
  • A reduction in the number of economic booms and busts
  • A system that rewards savers rather than debtors

Cons of bringing back the gold standard in the U.S.

  • Switching to a gold standard would shift the power from debtor nations (like the U.S. and Europe) to creditor nations (like China).
  • The gold standard would eliminate the need for a reserve currency – stripping yet more power away from the U.S.
  • Limits would be imposed on how much governments can borrow during crises/li>
  • Gold prices would need to be set by governments, and that could potentially give governments the power to manipulate currencies
  • Less ability for governments to stimulate growth in their economies

A different approach to the gold standard

While I do think there needs to be a return to fiscal responsibility, I’m not sure a single sovereign government could make the transition alone. A more likely solution? A federation of countries or global financial institutions that align to back a fee-based debit card system that lets buyers and sellers convert credits into physical gold or silver.

This electronic system could take deposits in any number of currencies. That cash could then be spent like cash in a normal debit account or redeemed for metal.

Individuals could use the system to protect themselves from inflation or as a shelter during tough economic times. The global binge on cheap credit has to come to an end at some point, and the solution just might be a mix of fiat and gold-backed money.

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