Apparently, IPOs come in threes. There’s been a rash of them in the email marketing field. On Monday, we learned that an ExactTarget Inc. IPO is next. The company plans to join the fray on the heels of a similar IPO announcement from competitor Eloqua Ltd. Both companies are following Responsys Inc. (NASDAQ:MKTG) to market.
When Responsys started trading in April, the company’s shares shot up to $15.40. They recently closed at $12.40 for a loss of nearly 20 percent. That’s not the only reason I’d be wary to invest in an ExactTarget IPO. Here are three reasons to look before you leap:
1) Competition. A quick trip to Alexa.com gives us the following traffic comparisons between competitor Constant Contact, Inc. (NASDAQ:CTCT) (in red) and ExactTarget (in blue):

While traffic to an email marketing company’s web site isn’t indicative of how many customers it has, it does nonetheless give us hints about a company’s brand power. And right now, ExactTarget, Responsys, Eloqua and VerticalResponse (which has been mum on an IPO) are fighting it out for the No. 2 slot behind Constant Contact.
The market’s actually assigned a higher value to Responsys (with a market cap of $583 million) than it has Constant Contact ($486 million). Constant Contact pulled in $1.2 million last quarter on revenue growth of 23 percent over the past year, while Responsys is yet to turn a profit. Revenue growth at Responsys has been impressive, though, shooting up more than 70 percent over the past year. In July, ExactTarget claimed revenue growth of 41 percent last year (per Bloomberg). If those trends continue, I’d lay my cash on Responsys.
2) Freemium is better. In addition to the competitors I’ve already mentioned, one terribly-named company might pose more of a threat than all the others for ExactTarget. That’s Mailchimp.com. Growth at Mailchimp has been astounding (again, here’s a comparison from Alexa):

Mailchimp offers an alternative business model that’s rapidly becoming one of the more successful models in the tech sphere: freemium. It hooks new, low-volume users with free offerings, then – as the needs of those customers grow – it starts charging for its services. Linkedin Corporation (NYSE:LNKD), Skype and Pandora Media Inc. (Public, NYSE:P) are just a handful of companies that have used freemium offerings to grow into billion dollar tech giants. And it makes sense. You can’t get much better marketing that giving away your product to millions of users for free. In a world with rapidly-falling hosting and data services costs, freemium is becoming more and more cost effective, and that could throttle pay-as-you-go companies like Constant Contact that offer limited free trials.
3) A not-so-sexy niche. Email marketing just doesn’t generate the sort of excitement that, say, cloud computing stocks do. Salesforce.com, Inc. (NYSE:CRM), for instance, is trading at a P/E ratio of 611! While Warren Buffett might argue that the last thing you should look for is how popular a sector is, I’m not sure it pays to seek out tech stocks most people don’t even understand. If there is a sell-off in stocks, you can bet companies like ExactTarget will suffer more than say Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), which has an easy-to-grasp business model, promising growth and cash on hand.
It’s not all bad
Before you ditch all plans to buy shares in ExactTarget, the company does have some selling points. Revenue growth of 41 percent is far from shabby (so long as they can keep their costs down), and the company’s shown a lot of initiative in mobile-based marketing – specifically in text messaging as a marketing tool. Not only is mobile marketing costly, it’s riddled with regulations and specialized technology. That makes most companies more than happy to outsource their SMS marketing campaigns. If ExactTarget can carve out a strong niche there, it’ll go a long way toward becoming more than an email marketing company.
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