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Archive for the ‘commodities’ Category

The real reason 2013 Silver Eagles hit an all-time high in January

Because the silver investment market is so small, it’s particularly vulnerable to hype. That’s exactly what the commodities research firm CPM Group thinks is happening now as investors trumpet the “incredible” demand for silver coins in January. While the U.S. Mint did announce all-time sales records for 2013 silver eagles in January (with 7,498,000 coins sold), CPM Group argues that’s just a hold-over of pent-up demand from earlier in the winter.

“All of this talk about a shortage of silver is irrational and not supported by readily available market data,” CPM Group says in its latest report.

Specifically, the company cites worries over the Fiscal Cliff in November and December as driving up demand for American Eagles. Since the Mint sold-out of coins in both November and December, that demand rolled forward into January driving sales up to record levels.

CPM Group’s been painting a pretty bleak picture of silver prices going forward. The commodities research firm believes prices will head lower over the next decade (through 2022) rather than higher as most silver price prognosticators would have you believe.

I’m not ready to make that assumption, but there are lessons to be learned from CPM Group. Mainly that the U.S. Mint isn’t the best gauge of market demand for silver. It’s too easily overwhelmed by demand, and that pushes sales forward into months when demand could have otherwise been low.

Silver will surge 400% through 2016, Williams says

Ok. I’ll admit I’m not entirely sure who Ian Williams is. This UK article describes him simply as “a City-based asset fund manager.” Still, he’s rather brazen in his predictions for the white metal.

Silver is destined to enter a “sustained bull market” in the coming weeks. Mr Williams believes the price of silver will increase fivefold between now and 2016, with a peak expected in the third quarter of 2015.

Good news for silver bulls if Mr. Williams can be trusted. More at livecharts.co.uk.

IBD likes platinum; not gold or silver

And the newspaper gives five reasons why:

  1. Platinum has outperformed gold and silver in the short-term and over the past year.
  2. Strong car sales mean higher platinum prices, particularly since 40 percent of mined platinum goes into catalytic converters.
  3. Mine strikes in South Africa have seriously dampened platinum supplies.
  4. Mining costs have out-stripped platinum prices for a lot of companies – a fact that will likely lead even more producers to cut their platinum output.
  5. Growth in China means more platinum jewelry sales.

Source: Investors.com.

PSLV vs. SLV: Battle of the silver ETFs

While they’re both silver ETFs, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV) and the Sprott Physical Silver Trust ETV (NYSE:PSLV) operate very differently. Here’s how they work:

The iShares Silver Trust ETF: The fund buys and sells silver in an attempt to have it’s share price match the value of its bullion holdings. If the value of the fund’s shares rise, iShares buys more silver. In theory, the fund’s market cap should equate to the fund’s silver holdings (less fees and liabilities).

Sprott Physical Silver Trust ETV: The Sprott trust operates much like the iShares ETF with one major exception, shareholders have the ability to exchange their Sprott shares for physical silver bullion on a monthly basis.

Although they operate similarly, the two ETFs have been on divergent paths year-to-date with the PSLV down 10 percent and the SLV up 4.8 percent. During the same time, the price of spot silver is up 2.54 percent on the year. It’s clear then that while the ETFs are designed to track an underlying commodity, they definitely come with margins of error.

And that’s actually making PSLV look quite attractive. In the past, the fund has traded at a premium of up to 35 percent above the price of spot silver (apparently investors like the fact that their holdings could be exchanged for physical silver). Today, PSLV’s trading at a premium of just 4.95 percent to the silver spot price.

There are benefits to both the ETFs approaches, though. First, the arguments for PSLV:

1) Redemption. Obviously, investors can choose to exchange their shares for physical silver – something that could come in handy if we do experience a currency crisis in the West.

2) Tax perks. If you plan to hold your silver ETF shares for more than a year, you can claim any appreciation as a long-term capital gain. That’s good for a 15 percent tax rate. Profits from SLV will set you back 28 percent under the current tax code.

3) Safety. The Royal Canadian Mint stores bullion for the Sprott trust. As Sprott writes on its web site, “The Mint is a Canadian Crown corporation, which acts as an agent of the Canadian Government, and its obligations generally constitute unconditional obligations of the Canadian Government.” SLV’s bullion is stored and managed by a private company (JP Morgan Chase: NYSE:JPM) with no government backing (unless, of course, you count the tacit promise of a bailout when times get tough).

Now the arguments for the SLV:

1) Low or no premiums. Since SLV doesn’t have to manage the costs associated with fulfilling delivery, the fund’s holdings trade at a much smaller premium to the price of silver. That’s important as premiums are subject to the whims of potential investors. As I wrote above, PSLV has traded with a premium as high as 35 percent above the price of silver in the past. You may as well go buy and store your own bullion at those prices.

2) Higher volume. A lot of silver ETF investors have no intention (or at least they don’t foresee the desire) to redeem their stock holdings for physical silver. For them, buying and selling shares is simply a vehicle to make money. SLV wins out if that’s your goal as the fund is much more liquid than PSLV. On an average day, more than 1.7 million shares of SLV trade hands compared with less than 100,000 shares of PSLV. This makes going both long or short the SLV much easier.

SLV Vs. PSLV: Which one’s better?

Both funds accomplish the same goal: exposure to the spot price of silver without actually buying silver. In the end, then, it comes down to two factors: security and taxes. If you know you’re going to hold your shares for more than a year (which entitles you to tax benefits) and you value the security of knowing your ETF shares can be redeemed for actual silver, buy PSLV. For all other traders, the SLV is perfect.

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Three reasons $6,000 gold makes sense

Despite accusations that it’s a worthless chunk of metal, gold prices have risen for the past 12 years. That’s more than a decade of net buying, and those buyers must have a good reason to keep pushing up gold’s price.

In general, I break gold buyers into two camps: defensive buyers and offensive buyers. Defensive buyers are temporarily trying to protect their wealth from effects of inflation. Offensive buyers are the so-called “gold bugs” – the investors who believe that we’re in the midst of a financial crisis that can only be resolved in one way: a string of sovereign defaults. Those offensive buyers don’t plan on selling until we have some new, multi-national gold-backed monetary system.

If we look at gold from the perspective of an offensive buyer, their predictions of $6,000 gold start to make some sense. Here are three reasons why $6,000 gold just might come about:

1) A solid track record. $6,000 sounds like an awful lot of money, but that’s actually just 4 times higher than gold’s current price around $1,590 an ounce. During the 1970s, gold went up 24 times. If we look at gold’s starting point 12 years ago around $250 an ounce and multiply that by 24, we end up at $6,000 an ounce. Gold went up that radically in the past, so it can surely happen in the future.

2) The Dow/gold ratio. Historically, the Dow/gold ratio tends to revert to 2:1. At the time of this writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stands at 12,835 and gold’s selling for $1,591. That’s a Dow/gold ratio north of 8. If the Dow were to stay at its current levels (floundering sideways in the years to come), and the Dow/gold ratio were to return to historical means, we’d be looking at gold at $6,000 an ounce.

3) Sovereign defaults seem imminent. It’s hard to believe there are countries with debt that rivals our own, but Greece is under the magnifying glass. The Eurozone “is on a path that leads to eventual dismantling,” Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors wrote in a note to clients on Monday (per IB Times), and Greece looks like it’s poised to be the first domino that falls. Sunday’s election in the country is still yet to yield a coalition government. That’s prompted warnings from the EU “that Greece would get no more payments from the $170 billion deal approved in March if it did not enact roughly $15 billion in cuts by June” (per USAToday).

If Greece stops getting bailout cash, the country would slide into default within weeks. That might not happen in June, but it seems imminent, and it would certainly raise doubts about the future of the Euro.

If people start doubting the future of a currency, gold will get a shot of adrenaline that’ll push it up rapidly. Throw a few currency defaults into the mix and there are few places besides gold to stash your cash. Viewed in that light, $6,000 gold seems more and more likely.

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Three signs silver prices have further to fall

A month ago, an ounce of silver was worth $33. Today, that same ounce is worth $29.50 – a drop of more than 10 percent. While we’re certain the 12-year bull market in precious metals isn’t over, we do think there could be more pain for silver investors in the near-term. Here’s why:

1) The Gold/Silver Ratio. The gold:silver ratio has been trending up since early March, and that trend probably won’t stop until the ratio re-tests January’s highs around 57:1. Why? Because swing and momentum traders themselves help cause the fluctuations in the gold:silver ratio. So long as the ratio is showing a clearly defined trend, and it’s not nearing any key resistance levels (or psychological barriers), those swing traders are going to short silver. Check out the steady upward climb in the gold:silver ratio:

[Source: Seeking Alpha]

2) Long live the dollar. The greenback can’t seem to do anything wrong. That’s despite explosive growth in True Money Supply (or the sum total of all the cash, deposits and notes that are floating about in our economy). Just check out this chart from Mises.org:

During ordinary economic times, you could expect the yields on U.S. bonds to spike in the face of such aggressive monetary easing. Instead, the dollar looks stable compared to the financial situation across the pond.

The Eurozone “is on a path that leads to eventual dismantling,” Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors wrote in a note to clients on Monday (per IB Times). “Greece restructured debt, made different rules for different holders, and yet, the new bonds trade at 20% of par.”

Investors are telling the Eurozone countries that they no longer believe there’s a way out. That threat of a Eurozone breakup has bought the dollar some street cred that it probably shouldn’t have – and that’s bad for silver prices.

3) Even die-hard silver bulls are losing some of their excitement over the white metal. “While I do remain very bullish on silver, I must also admit that for the first time I can envision a scenario in which silver does not reach $100,” writes Simit Patel at Seeking Alpha. His reasoning? Gold will likely outperform everything (silver and stocks) if the equity markets remain soft.

Of course, all of the arguments above have me thinking that now might be the perfect time to buy silver. I’m not alone either. Check out my recent post Why Eric Sprott believes silver prices will triple to $100 an ounce in 2012. Just remember that if you do buy, though, you need to be able to hold onto the metal in the face of near-term weakness. Prices may be higher in three months, but what happens between now and then might not be pretty.

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Will mushrooming supply crush gold and silver prices in the years to come?

One of the most common arguments bears levy against gold and silver is the fact that record prices mean more gold and silver mines. With those mines, they argue, comes a glut of supply that could crush the precious metals markets.

One of the leading voices in this debate is Dr. Paul Walker of precious metals consultancy GFMS Thomson Reuters. At a conference last week in Dubai, Dr. Walker pointed out that it takes some $120-$150 billion of investment demand every year just to keep gold prices flat – not to mention see prices climb higher (per Resource Investor).

That a lot of cash to maintain a baseline, and I would argue that bodes well for silver prices.

“The amount of silver that’s available for investment each year is 450 million ounces and the amount of gold that’s available for purchase is about 70 million ounces, which means you have a ratio of about six-and-a-half to one is amount of silver you can buy versus gold,” Eric Sprott said in a recent interview (per ETFDailyNews).

At current prices, that means investment demand needs to grow by $13.5 billion to keep silver prices where they are. That’s far less than the $120 billion gold prices will need to stay afloat.

Still, silver prices tend to follow gold prices as both metals act as stores of value during periods of inflation. The main indicator for whether or not gold and silver prices can keep up with supply then is the expectation of inflation, and expectations are a fickle thing.

As Dr. Walker pointed out last week, it’s probably not supply that gold and silver investors should be concerned about, but rather the possibility that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in an attempt to begin strengthening the dollar. That, he argues, could be the true “Black Swan” event we’ve all been worried about.

We’re not there yet, though. In fact, we just might see all-time record high gold and silver prices again before we ever see the interest rates rise. Check out our posts Silver prices setting up for 30-year high? and Why Eric Sprott believes silver prices will triple to $100 an ounce in 2012 for more.

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The pros and cons of going back to the gold standard in the U.S.

In the wake of the news that Utah has officially made gold and silver into currencies, Bloomberg TV hosted some heavy hitters on to ask them point blank: what’s the case for bringing back the gold standard in the U.S.?

[Check out our post It’s law: Gold and silver approved as currency in Utah for more on the gold standard.]

“It’s the ultimate currency,” Rob McEwen, CEO of McEwen Mining, says in the interview. “It can’t be replicated quickly, and it’s a store of value that’s crossed the millenium. Right now, we’re seeing the purchasing power decrease, and they’re taking away from everybody that puts money in the bank.”

“The horse is already out of the barn,” Michael Crofton, CEO of Philadelphia Trust, retorts. “I don’t think (a gold standard) could ever work given the amount of financing we have to do; both deficit financing and just operational financing.”

If there’s enough will for a new economic model, though, politicians could make it happen. It just wouldn’t come for free. There are a number of pros and cons to a gold standard. We’ve outlined several of the biggest here based on the interview with McEwen and Crofton and our own research.

Pros of bringing back the gold standard in the U.S.

  • Reducing the likelihood of another black swan event (hyperinflation, the collapse of financial institutions, etc.) that could cripple the global economy
  • Bringing back fiscal discipline in Washington – forcing politicians to clean up programs like Medicare and social security
  • It can be done. There’s precedent for it, with many nations – including the U.S. – operating with gold-backed currency for more than 100 years
  • Price stability
  • A reduction in the number of economic booms and busts
  • A system that rewards savers rather than debtors

Cons of bringing back the gold standard in the U.S.

  • Switching to a gold standard would shift the power from debtor nations (like the U.S. and Europe) to creditor nations (like China).
  • The gold standard would eliminate the need for a reserve currency – stripping yet more power away from the U.S.
  • Limits would be imposed on how much governments can borrow during crises/li>
  • Gold prices would need to be set by governments, and that could potentially give governments the power to manipulate currencies
  • Less ability for governments to stimulate growth in their economies

A different approach to the gold standard

While I do think there needs to be a return to fiscal responsibility, I’m not sure a single sovereign government could make the transition alone. A more likely solution? A federation of countries or global financial institutions that align to back a fee-based debit card system that lets buyers and sellers convert credits into physical gold or silver.

This electronic system could take deposits in any number of currencies. That cash could then be spent like cash in a normal debit account or redeemed for metal.

Individuals could use the system to protect themselves from inflation or as a shelter during tough economic times. The global binge on cheap credit has to come to an end at some point, and the solution just might be a mix of fiat and gold-backed money.

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Brand new copper price forecasts for 2012, 2013 and 2014

There’s good news and bad news for copper investors in the recent study released by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). According to their copper forecasts, global demand will exceed supply by 240,000 tonnes in 2012. That should help copper prices in 2012, but the ICSG expects a copper production surplus of 350,000 tonnes in 2013.

The ICSG is careful to point out that the surplus of 350,000 tonnes is “relatively small” and “could vary from those projected.” But their numbers align with what other organizations expect.

A report from UBS shows global copper mine production grew less than 1 percent a year between 2009 and 2011. That was temporary, though, as production numbers are poised to surge to 8.5 percent a year through 2014 (per the Wall Street Journal).

“If China cannot absorb the copper flowing into it, then the outlook for copper is negative,” UBS said in the report.

Growth in China is key as the country consumes 40 percent of the world’s copper supplies. It makes sense then that copper investors grew nervous after disappointing growth numbers out of China during Q1. Still, there were signs in April that growth’s accelerating behind the Great Wall. China’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to a 13-month high of 53.3 in April (per Reuters).

“If we start to see China coming back more strongly in the second half, which is something that we expect, then we could see, you know, stocks starting to come down to really critically low levels and we could see prices sort of bouncing up,” Peter Ghilchik, multi-commodity manager with CRU in London, said recently (per Minyanville). In his words, that could push copper prices toward $10,000 per tonne by the second quarter of 2013 – a record level that we haven’t seen since early 2011.

Other copper price forecasts:

  • Copper will trade in a range between $8,300 and $8,800 per tonne in 2012 according to the Thomson Reuters GFMS Copper Survey (per Reuters).
  • CRU believes copper prices will average $3.85/pound for the year with a peak late in 2012 around $8,650 per tonne.

Our favorite copper price prediction comes from Citi Investment Research – a daring group of analysts who are willing to project prices far off in the future. They see copper hitting $3.80 in 2013, then falling to $3.61 per pound in 2014 (per the Wall Street Journal).

In the near-term, look for copper prices to get a temporary boost off news that copper inventories monitored by the LME have fallen to their lowest levels since 2008 at 241,550 tons (per Reuters).

Altogether in 2012, copper prices have risen about 10 percent. Let’s hope the red metal can keep that trend intact – at least until miners start flooding the market with new supply in 2013.

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Why Commerzbank believes gold will hit an ‘all-time high’ by end of 2012

With gold prices up 6.8 percent since the start of 2012, it’s tough to say it’s been a bad year for gold, but momentum for the metals seems to have waned.

“Right now, the disappointment of the gold bulls, you can actually feel it,” Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG, told Bloomberg during an interview early in April. While Weinberg believes this will present a buying opportunity “in the coming months,” it probably won’t happen soon. Even in early April, he was predicting gold would dip through June or July – perhaps below $1,600 an ounce.

The malaise in the gold market is probably due in part to seasonal trends, and in part to a need for the metal to cool after an unprecedented, two-year surge during which investors saw prices climb from $900 to $1,900 an ounce.

It’s been tough for gold bulls to stomach, though, as prices in other commodities have outperformed gold. Brent crude, for instance has nearly doubled gold’s performance year to date, with the commodity up 12.5 percent. Gasoline prices are up 12.19 percent, and soybean prices are up 12.35 percent year-to-date (per Index Mundi).

Weinberg argues that gold doesn’t behave like commodities such as oil and grains because it’s not. In his words, it’s a currency, and there are a lot of factors that are colluding to drive down gold as a currency. Specifically, Weinberg cites three things:

  • The Fed is signaling QE3 is less and less likely
  • The global economy is showing early signs of a recovery
  • The dollar is strengthening as other economies pump more cash into their systems

Still, Weinberg remains “structurally bullish” on gold.

“I’m staying bullish on the longer-term and believe that the negative real interest rates, the inflation fears, and longer-term concerns about the economy are likely to keep the prices, the long-term trend intact and the prices are likely to reach another all-time high by year-end.”

The market’s overly optimistic on the state of the economy, Weinberg argues. But we’re not out of the woods yet, and that fact should start hitting home come mid-summer. When it does, gold prices will once again power higher.

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