2016 silver price predictions: Look for a recovery


Four years ago, analysts everywhere were making predictions about the price of silver. Now, it’s hard to find anyone talking about it. Paul Mladjenovic, author of Precious Metals Investing for Dummies, believes prices for the white metal will bolt higher in 2016, though. Indeed, he believes silver has a “strong chance at hitting” $25 to $29 next year (source).

Adam Koos, president of Libertas Wealth Management Group, agrees without giving a specific price target. He expects silver to start a bull run late in 2016. “Take a little hiatus until 2016 … when the US president will be a huge question mark, US stocks will most likely pick up in volatility and any rate increases will have already been priced into the metals,” he told MarketWatch.com this summer.

Kunal Shah, head of commodities research at Nirmal Bang Commodities, believes silver prices should settle between $16.95 and $17.40 per ounce by the end of 2016. “Industrial demand has remained very strong from electrical, solar and various industries so we recommend that any decline in silver prices now should be used as excellent buying opportunity,” he says (source).

That falls in line with silver price predictions from a Reuters poll over the summer. Polled analysts expect silver prices to recover to $17.21 an ounce in 2016 (source).

RBC analysts expect silver prices to be around $19 an ounce by 2018 (source). That’s roughly 20 percent higher than today’s silver price of $15.50. That’s not exactly a big surge. RBC is, however, bullish on a handful of gold and silver stocks. While silver prices have plummeted, stocks in the sector have gotten hit even harder. They should start recovering rapidly as the price of silver drifts higher.

One of the biggest silver bears I can find is Jing Pan, a research analyst and editor at Lombardi Financial. Pan believes we could see a squeeze next year that might push silver prices up to $31 an ounce (source). He cites decreased mining activity, elevated demand and a skewed gold-silver ratio as the major drivers. Today’s gold-silver ratio hovers around 72:1. If we get to 35:1, we’d be around Pan’s target price, and that’s still far higher than the “natural” gold-silver ratio of 17:1.

Interestingly, 2015 is expected to be the first year in 12 years that silver mining output will actually decline. “We’re just not seeing the investment in new mine capacity that would be needed to sustain continued record peak production,” Andrew Leyland, an analyst with GFMS, told the Wall Street Journal. GFMS forecasts silver prices will average $16.50 an ounce in 2015, and rise to $17.50 an ounce in 2016.

Photo credit: Loopack.

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