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Archive for September, 2012

Agnico-Eagle Mines stock forecast (NYSE:AEM)

This post is part of series where we’re checking in on the Top 500 gold and silver mining stocks profiled in our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock.

Performance: First, let’s compare Agnico-Eagle’s performance against the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) – a basket of industry-leading gold stocks.

Time Span AGONF Performance HUI Performance
1 Month +9.5% +13%
3 Month +18.8% +3%
YTD +33% -12%

Agnico-Eagle Mines is one of the top-performing stocks in the HUI this year. The stock also happens to be the smallest component of the HUI with a 3.11 percent weighting. As the smallest component of the HUI, Agnico’s market cap still stands at a massive $8.28 billion. Since it’s smaller than some of its peers, though, share prices could be a bit more volatile.

Why we like Agnico: 1.66% dividend; More than 21 million ounces of gold reserves. By market cap, Agnico is Canada’s fifth-largest gold producer. In Q3 2011 alone, the company increased its production by 11 percent to 265,978 ounces of gold. According to their most recent numbers, they’ve got total proven and probable gold reserves nearing 21.3 million ounces. http://www.agnico-eagle.com/

Recent News: RBC Dominion Securities raised their price target on Agnico-Eagle to $53 a share last week. A year ago, shares were north of $70. Prices crumpled to as low as $33, though, on news that the company was forced to close its Goldex mine in Quebec due to safety concerns. On top of that, Agnico wrote off part of its investment in its Meadowbank mine in Nunavut.

RBC analyst Stephen Walker says things are finally looking up. “The company has shown its ability to ‘under-promise and over-deliver’ on its operating results and drive strong performance at its five operating mines,” he wrote in a note (per the Financial Post). “However, we believe investors expect to see the company deliver results that are sustainable and demonstrate future growth over the next 2-3 years.”

Agnico’s looking to the future with new exploration partnerships in Colombia and Alaska (with Miranda Gold) among other places.

Agnico paid out a dividend of $0.20 cents on Aug. 30. That’s up 25 percent over the company’s $0.16 dividend a year ago. Thanks to growing enthusiasm for gold and silver mining shares, I think RBC’s price target is low, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see shares north of $60 a year from now.

Check out our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock (pictured above) to uncover more undiscovered gold and silver mining stocks.

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Gold and silver bubble will ‘dwarf’ the Internet bubble

One of my favorite quotes in recent news came from Bill Murphy founder and chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA). In an interview (that I highly recommend) with Jim Puplava of the Financial Sense Newshour, Murphy argued that the price of gold and silver have been successfully manipulated for decades.

The debt crisis that’s plaguing the U.S., Europe, Japan and other countries will eventually lead to so much money-printing, though, that continuing to suppress the price of precious metals just won’t be possible. That’s when we’ll truly see a tremendous climb in prices.

“When the public comes in here in our tiny gold and silver markets, it will be a bubble, and it will dwarf what the Internet did except it will be real for a long period of time,” Murphy said. “And that’s coming.”

That’s good news for gold and silver stock holders, but it will likely be bad for everyone on the outside looking in. Since Murphy’s certain we’re nearing the tipping point for inflation (especially after the Fed signaled that QEIII is coming on Friday), he looks at buying mining shares as a no-brainer.

“It’s probably the best risk-reward situation right now as the gold and silver markets have ever seen in terms of the equities,” he says.

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Silver outperforms all other precious metals in August; Where do metals prices go now?

When Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed “will provide additional policy accommodation” to bolster the US economy on Friday, metals prices sprinted higher in an end-of-the-month surge. Silver rallied more than 4.5 percent to give it as a solid lead as the top-performing metal in August.

Precious Metals Gains, August 2012

Metal Monthly Gain
Gold +4.5%
Silver +12.6%
Platinum +8.5%
Palladium +6.6%

The moves propelled gold to a five-month high while silver’s sitting at a four-month high. Still, leading analysts seem to think the best is yet to come for metals as quantitative easing looks to be more imperative.

“We took the amount of debt owned by major countries that is going to have to roll over in the next three years,” Jim Puplava of the Financial Sense Newshour said recently. “Over 50 percent of US debt is rolling over, 50 percent of Japanese debt, German debt, (etc.), and none of these countries – whether it’s the United States or Europe or Japan – can afford a spike in interest rates. So you know sooner later we’re going to get multiple forms of quantitative easing.”

More quantitative easing means higher inflation and higher precious metals prices as the value of global currencies retreat. That really has me taking a closer look at gold and silver stocks. Many of them have been trending up over the past three months, but they’re still trading below where they were a year ago.

Let’s take a look at a small-cap silver mining stock like Great Panther Silver Ltd. (AMEX:GPL). One year ago, shares stood at $3.19. As of Friday’s close, they were trading at $1.97. If prices return to last year’s levels, that would be a gain of nearly 62 percent.

“When the public comes in here in our tiny gold and silver markets, it will be a bubble, and it will dwarf what the Internet did except it will be real for a long period of time,” Bill Murphy founder and chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) Jim Puplava in that same interview. “And that’s coming. … It’s probably the best risk-reward situation right now as the gold and silver markets have ever seen in terms of the equities.”

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African Gold Group stock forecast (PINK:AGGFF, CVE:AGG)

This post is part of series where we’re checking in on the Top 500 junior gold and silver mining stocks profiled in our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock.

Performance: First, let’s compare African Gold Group’s performance against the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) – a basket of industry-leading gold stocks.

Time Span AGONF Performance HUI Performance
1 Month +48% +13%
3 Month +6% +3%
YTD -41% -12%

African Gold Group’s following the usual trend: as a junior gold mining stock, it’s more volatile than shares in larger mining companies. When times are good, they’re really good for small cap miners. When times are bad, the declines are steeper.

Profile: African Gold Group, Inc., holds rights to five projects: three in Ghana and two in Mali. The Company’s most advanced asset is its Kobada gold project in Mali. The Kobada Trend contains an inferred mineral resource of 740,000 ounces of gold at a 0.3 g/t gold cutoff (recently upgraded to 1.1 million ounces), and the company believes that Kobada could be a multi-million ounce deposit. African Gold’s Ghana property also includes land abutting Keegan Resources’ holdings. http://www.africangoldgroup.ca/

Risks: With an average trading volume of 20,500 shares per day, volume on AGONF is low, but not too low. Just keep in mind that taking a large position in a small-cap stock means you may have to wait a long time to find buyers for all your shares. Volume is slightly higher on the CVE, where an average of 44K shares trade hands daily.

Recent News: The biggest news out of African Gold is the company’s upcoming resource estimate at its Kobada project. Those numbers are expected sometime this month.

“(Our resource estimate) will be upgraded to indicated from inferred and a percentage of that will go into measured,” company founder Nikiforuk told the Northern Miner in April. “We also anticipate a meaningful increase in grade.”

Step-out holes drilled at the site this spring included highlights of 70 metres of 1.83 g/t gold and 84 metres of 1.26 grams gold. If the company’s resource estimate is significantly higher, expect a boost in share price.

Last year’s preliminary economic assessment indicated that “the project could produce gold at US$470.90 per oz. processing 20,000 tonnes per day, for a total of 7 million tonnes a year” (per Northern Miner). The project currently boasts an inferred resource of 1.1 million ounces of gold.

Check out our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock (pictured above) to uncover more undiscovered gold and silver mining stocks.

Silver prices set to surge higher

Silver prices rocketed higher on Friday thanks to hints from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that QE3 could be around the corner. Prices for the white metal traded in a narrow range around $30.70 an ounce Wednesday and Thursday in the run-up to Bernanke’s speech.

Early Friday, prices started climbing and they didn’t stop until the markets closed. By the end of the day, silver was up to $31.74 an ounce – a gain of 4.58% in a single day of trading. The actual quote that had traders salivating is (in typical Bernanke fashion) vague:

“Taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability,” he said (per IBD).

Bernanke didn’t say the Fed “may” stimulate, he said the Fed “will” stimulate. That was all it took. Shares in gold and silver mining stocks were off to the races. Majors like Silver Wheaton (NYSE:SLW) rose 5.2 percent and Silver Standard (NASDAQ:SSRI) climbed 7.9 percent. Some small-cap miners did even better with Great Panther Silver (NYSEAMEX:GPL) rocketing up more than 11 percent.

“My friend Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management is one of the smartest men I’ve ever met in my life and a real detail guy – and he thinks silver is going to go well above $100, and you might even be able to pick a number for silver,” Bill Murphy founder and chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) said in a recent interview with Financial Sense. “I think … people that are willing to do their homework and be patient and accumulate these cheap gold and silver shares will make fortunes in the years ahead.”

Of course, anytime there’s a run-up in gold and silver prices, it doesn’t happen smoothly. Since precious metals act as a barometer of the wider economy, political changes and economic numbers can cause large price swings. When prices are on the rise, though, it can happen violently. And it looks like we could be in the midst of another big upswing.

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Adventure Gold Inc. (PINK:AGONF, CVE:AGE) stock forecast

This post is part of series where we’re checking in on the Top 500 junior gold and silver mining stocks profiled in our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock.

Performance: First, let’s compare Adventure Gold’s performance against the AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) – a basket of industry-leading gold stocks.

Time Span AGONF Performance HUI Performance
1 Month +61% +13%
3 Month +44% +3%
YTD -15% -12%

Adventure Gold’s following the usual trend: it’s more volatile than larger equities. When times are good, they’re really good for small cap miners. When times are bad, the declines are steeper. Still, AGONF’s performance over the past three months has been particularly impressive.

Profile: Adventure Gold Inc. holds rights to more than two dozen potential gold properties in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt located in north-western Quebec and north-eastern Ontario. The company plans to spend $14 million on exploration over the next five years. Most recently, Phase 2 drilling has begun on the Lapaska Property in Quebec. Highlights from previous drilling there showed 1.0 g/t gold over 103.4m including 10.3 g/t gold over 3.8m. http://www.adventure-gold.com/

Risks: Volume on AGONF is extremely low. Some days no shares trade hands. That means that even if you want to sell your shares, there might not be a buyer out there. If there is a buyer, they probably want a discount to the current quote. Volume currently averages 2,500 shares per day.

Recent News: Phase III drilling has kicked off on the company’s 100%-owned Pascalis-Colombiere gold property in the Val-d’Or mining camp in Quebec. The most promising hole showed 3.1 g/t Au over 27.0 metres. Click for more drilling results. Pascalis-Colombiere is a proven property. It yielded just over 200,000 ounces of gold for Cambior Inc. (now IAMGOLD) between 1989 and 1993. That’s a plus over more speculative explorers with unproven plots of land.

Adventure Gold had $5 million on hand as of April, and they have partnerships with two major mining companies in Agnico Eagle (Dubuisson in Val d’Or) and Lake Shore Gold and RT Minerals (Meunier-144 in Timmins West). They’re planning $2 million in drilling through next April with additional work commitments of $10 million over the next 5 years. Promising results would be a boon to the company’s shares.

Check out our book Top 500 Gold and Silver Mining Stocks: Metalproofing Your Portfolio from the Coming Inflation Shock (pictured above) to uncover more undiscovered gold and silver mining stocks.







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