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Archive for February, 2011

Three reasons to invest in Xstrata PLC (PINK:XSRAF)

The world’s largest producer of thermal coal and a world-class copper miner, Xstrata’s (PINK:XSRAF) earnings spiked 86 percent during fiscal year 2010. Metals analyst John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research tells Barron’s the company’s significantly under-valued compared to its peers. Indeed, shares trade at a 10 percent discount to Xstrata’s coal and copper assets alone. If that isn’t enough, here are three more reasons to consider adding Xstrata to your portfolio:

1) Leader of the pack. Xstrata has “the greatest growth upside” of any of the large-cap miners, according to analysts at Credit Suisse. Copper and coal volumes are expected to surge at an average of 50 percent over the next five years Barron’s reports. That’s good news as prices for both commodities have surged toward record levels this year. Xstrata’s also got significant nickel, zinc and alloy deposits including primary vanadium and platinum group metals. As a bonus, the company provides technology services for large-cap miners including Anglo Platinum Limited (PINK:AGPPY) and Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG).

2) Rain, rain go away. Flooding in Australia has temporarily halted output at the company’s Ulan mine, which has an annual output capacity of 4 million tonnes of thermal coal, according to The Australian. The flooding has also affected coal output at BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Peabody Energy and Anglo American, stoking coal prices around the world. Xstrata’s strong balance sheet should help the company get the mine back online quickly, and Xstrata claims the shutdown will have little effect on profits.

3) Dividends are good. Xstrata recently returned its dividend to pre-crisis levels with a year-end payout of 20 cents. It was a move that was significantly higher than expected, Paul Galloway, analyst at Sanford Bernstein, tells the Financial Post. If copper and coal prices keep climbing, expect even better dividends in the years to come.

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Profits at Berkshire’s home construction companies crumble 72 percent (BRK.B)

In his annual letter to shareholders, which was released this weekend, billionaire investor Warren Buffett called for a housing recovery that “will probably begin within a year or so.” That’s welcome news for Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s (NYSE:BRK.B) shareholders as profits from businesses related to home construction have tumbled 72 percent from their peak in 2006.

“Johns Manville, MiTek, Shaw and Acme Brick have maintained their competitive positions, but their profits are far below the levels of a few years ago,” Buffett writes. “Combined, these operations earned $362 million pre-tax in 2010 compared to $1.3 billion in 2006, and their employment has fallen by about 9,400.”

Berkshire’s kept investing in its home construction businesses, though, as the company expects the economy to breathe life back into the sector soon. MiTek’s made five acquisitions. Acme’s made one. Johns Manville is building a roofing membrane plant at a cost of $55 million, and Shaw will spend $200 million on plant and equipment upgrades.

The investments are a bet on a macro-trend Buffett sees as imminent: America’s housing market (and the economy at large) will find ways to start growing again; no matter how dire the predictions of politicians.

Another macro-trend Buffett foresees? Rail will grow significantly in the future. The sector’s three times more fuel-efficient than trucking, he argues. That means its more cost-effective, reduces a dependence on foreign oil and makes American goods more affordable.

“The railroad (Burlington Northern Santa Fe) will need to invest massively to bring about this growth, but no one is better situated than Berkshire to supply the funds required,” Buffett writes. “However slow the economy, or chaotic the markets, our checks will clear.”

The beauty of Berkshire is it has the cashflow and long-term outlook to make investments that help it weather economic storms. That might mean smaller gains than you could get off a company that’s just had its IPO, but the gains will be stable, and Buffett’s confident they’ll out-perform the S&P over the long run. In Buffett’s own words: “At Berkshire, our time horizon is forever.”

When you give yourself that sort of timeline, it fundamentally changes the way you look at stocks. It makes it OK that profits in your home construction division are off 72 percent. The sector will recover, and the goal is to be in the best position possible to profit from that recovery when it comes. It doesn’t matter if it’s this year or next. All we know is that recovery is coming.

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Groupon CEO is a weird guy with good advice

Deal-of-the-day web site Groupon.com vaulted from obscurity to multi-billion dollar company in two years. Indeed, it’s predicted to “make $1 billion in sales faster than any other business, ever,” according to Forbes. Now, we’ve gotten a peek behind the curtain with the so-called “Frodo Memo” that ended up in the hands of the Wall Street Journal.

The memo, which was sent late last month, shows just how unusual Groupon’s CEO Andrew Mason is. In it, the CEO holds back little of his enthusiasm, pride and ambition, and he offers a few nuggets of wisdom that entrepreneurs everywhere should heed:

1) You’re your own worst enemy. Mason argues sites like MySpace, Friendster, AOL and Yahoo! didn’t lose to competitors, but rather lost the battle on their own. “MySpace essentially handed Facebook the keys to the castle by devolving into a service that wasn’t delighting its customers,” he writes. How did they do that? By digging a rut and being unable or unwilling to innovate.

2) Enjoy the ride you’re on. When you’re overwhelmed with the day-to-day operations of your business or job, you can lose sight of what you’ve accomplished so far. It’s OK to revel in your success. Use it to feed your desire to make your business even better. “The earth is super old – thousands of years, some say – and no one has ever done anything like this,” Mason writes. “You should all exude a borderline-annoying sense of pride in what you’ve achieved. You should be wearing a big, toothy grin – the kind that makes people want to punch you in the face.” If you take pride in your business, you’ll make the decisions that will lead your customers back to your trough.

3) Give your customers a reason to pick you. Mason’s well aware that just about every programmer and multi-national tech company in the world is working on a way to poach clients from Groupon. “They are coming HARD,” he writes. “If you feel a little like Frodo climbing Mount Doom, you can’t be blamed.” But Mason argues that Groupon can stay ahead of its competitors by surprising the company’s clients. “Life is too short to be part of another cookie cutter company,” he writes. “Surprise reminds people that they are alive, that they haven’t seen it all.”

Take heed. Mason graduated from Northwestern University in 2003 with a degree in music. That makes him, what, 31? A thirty-something with a music degree has built a rapidly-growing Internet marketing juggernaut the likes of which the world has never seen. He’s proof that we can all accomplish great things by ignoring the naysayers and forging ahead … just like little Frodo on Mount Doom.

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How to invest in ISIS

Online mobile shopping could command as much as 12 percent of total global e-commerce by 2015, according to a report ABI Research. It’s a sign of just how comfortable consumers are getting using their phones to make purchases. The next logical step is to use mobile phones as payment mechanisms in stores, restaurants and small businesses – doing away with plastic once and for all.

The transition from credit cards to phone swiping could completely change the way with interact with businesses. No longer would we use a simple plastic card with a magnetic strip on the back, we’d be paying with a computer that could track purchases, offer discounts, tick off rewards points and offer incentives to come back.

ISIS is leading the charge into the pay-by-phone marketplace through a partnership with AT&T, Inc. (NYSE:ATT), Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) and T-Mobile USA. The national mobile commerce network will use near-field communication (NFC) technology to allow phones to wirelessly communicate with checkout terminals.

The goal of ISIS is to provide wireless services to more than 200 million consumers. If the roll-out, which is taking place over the next year, gains traction, it could stand to pad the pockets of several companies. Here are some tickers to consider if you’d like to invest in ISIS and NFC:

Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS). Payments made through the ISIS network will be processed by Discover. The Discover network is currently accepted at more than seven million merchant locations nationwide. DFS will, no doubt, get a percentage of all the sales the company processes.

Barclays, PLC (NYSE:BCS) Barclaycard US is expected to be the first issuer on the ISIS network thanks to the company’s experience processing NFC payments using standard credit cards. Eventually the ISIS network will be expanded to other banks.

While it’s unclear exactly how AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile will profit off ISIS, I suspect they’ll also receive a cut of the payments processed over the network. They’ll likely ramp up efforts to partner with retailers to offer expanded services, too – things like rewards points, customer tracking and coupons.

It’s important to remember, though, that ISIS is just one of the many networks and companies working to dominate the pay-by-phone market. Visa, Inc. (NYSE:V), MasterCard, Inc. (NYSE:MA), eBay Inc.’s PayPal (NASDAQ:EBAY), Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) are just a few of the heavyweights with skin in the game. It’ll be interesting to see which companies come out on top.

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Time to short Demand Media, Inc. (NYSE:DMD)?

Late Thursday night, Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) uploaded a fairly innocuous-sounding blog post titled “Finding more high-quality sites in search.” In the post, Google wrote that “in the last day or so we launched a pretty big algorithmic improvement to our ranking — a change that noticeably impacts 11.8% of our queries.”

The update was targeted at reducing search results for low-quality sites. Sounds reasonable. What Google doesn’t specifically say though is that the move is widely viewed as a response to a chorus of reporters and bloggers who have complained about “content farm” pollution on Google.

One of the chief targets of that content farm rage is Demand Media, Inc. (NYSE:DMD) – a company that had its IPO on the NYSE late last month. Demand Media pays an army of freelancers to churn out short articles that are written to rank highly in Google’s search results. Specifically, Demand Media produces “How To” articles for eHow.com to capitalize on the large number of “How To” searches that web users perform online.

The net result is you can type in just about any “how to” query into Google and see an eHow.com page near the top of Google’s search results. Because Demand Media pays just $15 per article, a lot of Web surfers complain about the quality of the articles. Google’s “algorithmic improvement” appears to be targeted at Demand Media and related sites including Yahoo! Inc.’s (NASDAQ:YHOO) Associated Content. The implicit message is, eHow and Associated Content articles are going to start appearing lower in Google’s search results. That means far fewer page views, and fewer page views means fewer ad clicks, which could hurt the bottom line for both companies.

For its part, Demand Media quickly responded to Google’s blog post with a post of its own. “It’s impossible to speculate how these or any changes made by Google impact any online business in the long term – but at this point in time, we haven’t seen a material net impact on our Content & Media business,” writes Larry Fitzgibbon, Demand Media’s EVP of Media and Operations.

Fitzgibbon goes on to say that the company isn’t reliant on Google alone for search. People looking for How To articles sometimes skip Google altogether and go directly to eHow.com, Fitzgibbon says. Repeat visits and visits from social networking sites like Facebook make up another big chunk of visits to the site, too. Still, it’s undeniable that Google plays an outsize role in Demand Media’s success.

During Q3 2010, search engines generated 41 percent of Demand Media’s traffic, according to IPO documents, most of which came from Google. Ad arrangements with Google also accounted for 28 percent of the company’s revenue. Those are big numbers that could mean the difference between a profitable company and a sinking ship.

I’m definitely not buying Demand Media shares right now, but I’m not convinced they’d make a good short, either. A company doesn’t exist in a vacuum, and they’re continually tasked with adjusting to a changing market. If eHow’s results get pushed off the first few pages of Google’s search results, I’d be running for the hills, but a move like that makes little sense for Google. Google’s tasked with providing relevant search results. For obscure searches like “How to Fix a Dishwasher That Makes Weird Noises,” eHow’s content might be the most relevant and informative content online. So long as their content is worthwhile for at least a handful of surfers, Demand’s pages will continue to be returned in Google’s search results.

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In 2011′s large cap vs. small cap stocks battle, bet on bigger names

One of the fundamental differences between successful investors and mediocre investors is the ability to protect assets. Even with the S&P 500 returning 12 percent last year, trillions of dollars sat languishing in money-market accounts earning interest rates around 1 percent.

The wealthy are more keen on protecting their capital than they are on putting it in jeopardy. That’s what made them rich in the first place, and it’s also why many analysts are calling for 2011 to be a banner year for large-cap stocks. Signs are already surfacing that money’s flowing back into the markets after an extended period on the sidelines.

Since early December, Americans have moved $83 billion out of money market accounts. A lot of that money ended up in stocks. According to the Financial Post, investors poured $23 billion into mutual funds in January. That was the biggest monthly inflow since February 2007.

Wealthy investors are also ditching bonds in favor of stocks. Larry Palmer, a managing director for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Private Wealth Management Several, tells the Post that several clients sold half their bond portfolios over the past two months and invested the proceeds in large-cap dividend-paying U.S. stocks.

Big Money likes big margins of safety, and rock-bottom valuations have a lot of large-cap stocks looking attractive right now. Big Money’s also particularly adept at recognizing when shares are under-valued.

“Ten years ago, if you were looking for relatively low valuations, your search would have led you to smaller stocks, and you would have enjoyed a decade of outperforming the broad market,” writes Matt Koppenheffer at Fool.com. “Right now, larger stocks carry the more attractive valuations – CVS (NYSE:CVS) has a P/E of just over 13 and Ford (NYSE:F) changes hands at less than nine times its earnings – and I think will enjoy better returns when the trend reverses.”

Here are three more reasons 2011 just might stack up to be the year of the large-cap stocks:

1) A crumbling dollar. The rapid decline of the dollar has shares on American exchanges looking cheap. Foreigners who buy in now, could reap gains in stock prices AND currency appreciations if and when the Fed starts tightening interest rates. Mike Hawkins, head of private clients at Evans and Partners, went so far as calling it a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” for Australian investors.

2) Margin of safety. The political turmoil in the Middle East could put long-term pressure on stock prices. In general, large cap stocks lose less than small cap stocks as investors shift money into safer assets during periods of uncertainty.

3) Large caps are “as cheap as they ever get.” “These stocks are not just a little cheap, they are almost as cheap as they ever get, relative to the rest of the market,” Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist for Boston-based Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., tells the Post. The blistering gains we’ve seen in small-cap stocks have lured investors away from big companies with great revenue streams, and this just might be the year when that trend reverses itself.

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Net income at Noah Holdings (NOAH) up 88 percent

First off, this disclaimer: Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE:NOAH) is one of the biggest holdings in my portfolio right now. A wealth management company that serves high-net-worth individuals in China, Noah released 4Q earnings last night. Analysts were spot on with their calls. The company reported $0.09 earnings per share, which met the Thomson Reuters consensus estimate of $0.09, according to AmericanBankingNews.com.

Net revenues at the company shot up 157 percent from $5.4 million in Q4 2009 to $14 million in Q4 2010. Over that same time span, net income attributable to shareholders rose 88.9 percent to $4.2 million. Those are heady numbers, and so are the company’s expectations for the rest of the year. Noah forecasts non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders to hit a year-over-year increase in the range of 56.7% and 86.6%.

Analysts are also positive on the stock. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) initiated coverage on Noah Holdings with an Overweight rating and a $22.00 price target last month. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) analysts currently list Noah as a Buy with a $22.20 price target.

Both targets are more than 40 percent higher than the stock’s current price at $15.43. Apparently, I should have waited to buy my shares, which are down 3.5 percent since opening day, but I’m definitely not worried about the company’s long-term prospects.

There’s much talk about China’s burgeoning middle class, but, if luxury purchasing is any indication, the ranks of the upper class are swelling even faster. A new report by broker CSLA forecasts overall consumption in China will rise 11 percent per year over the next five years. Sales of luxury goods are expected to grow more than twice as quickly, by 25 percent a year.

“The wealth of China’s upper-middle class has reached an inflection point, reckons [the author of the CSLA report] Mr. Fischer. They have everything they need,” The Economist writes. “Now they want a load of stuff they don’t need, too.”

With great wealth comes the desire to make even more of it, and Noah appears perfectly positioned to help China’s newest millionaires amass even more cash.

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Start your own business ideas: 3 tips from an incubator

Few people have sat through as many business pitches as Paul Graham. The founder of Y Combinator (YC), Graham’s life work is devoted to helping entrepreneurs get their businesses off the ground. Twice a year, YC invests in a small group of start-ups (at an average cost of $18,000), moves them out to the Silicon Valley for three months and helps them refine their business pitches. It’s not necessarily an incubator, per say (since entrepreneurs are supposed to work out of their own homes), but, at the end of the three months, all of the start-ups get a chance to pitch a large group of investors on “Demo Day.” If they’re lucky, they get the kind of cash they need to turn their ideas into businesses.

During a recent interview with Entrepreneur magazine, Graham dished on what draws him to particular business ideas. Here are three of his most intriguing points. Use them to determine whether or not your business idea has legs:

1) Are you determined? The founder’s drive is the most important part of any start-up. “If you imagine someone with 100 percent determination and 100 percent intelligence, you can discard a lot of intelligence before they stop succeeding,” Graham says, “but if you start discarding determination, you very quickly get an ineffectual and perpetual grad student.” Access whether or not you’re truly committed to the business you hope to start. If you are, you’ll be able to will it into reality.

2) Do you know your industry? When asked what most impresses when he hears a business pitch, Graham claims its a founder who truly understands his or her niche. If you’re treading water in a realm outside of your expertise, you’re probably going to scare off investors. Stick to what you know, and your business idea has a much better chance of succeeding.

3) Is your idea groundbreaking? My favorite quote from Graham comes when he’s asked how he spots a great idea. “It often sounds like a bad idea,” he says. He goes on to give the example of Facebook. In its early days, who would have wanted to invest in a social directory aimed at Harvard students? “The very best startup ideas, the ones that are the biggest success, tend to be the ideas that you don’t know are even going to work,” Graham says. The moral? The more nervous your idea makes you, the better it might be. If you truly have the grit to see it through, it just might be successful.

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When will the housing market rebound?

Trying to peg the bottom in home prices is like playing a game of pin the tail on the donkey. We’ve got a rough idea where we’re trying to go, but finding the right spot is, in the end, a matter of luck. There’s still downward pressure on the housing market. And that pressure might get worse before it gets better. Here’s why:

“The biggest bubble in history.” I think Americans are still struggling to wrap their minds around the size of the global housing bubble. From 2000 to 2005, home prices rose more than 100 percent. That prompted The Economist to dub the housing market “the biggest bubble in history.” “Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom,” the magazine wrote at the time, “it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America’s stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP).” Prices went far too high, far too fast. When the dotcom bubble started collapsing in 2000, the Nasdaq spent two and a half years shedding 76 percent of its value. Eleven years later, the Nasdaq still hasn’t come close to re-touching the highs hit during the height of the bubble.

Supply and demand. There are just too many houses on the market for a recovery to take root. “At the current pace, it would take about seven months to sell all of the newly built houses on the market, and eight months to sell all of the existing homes on the market,” NPR reports. “In an ordinary market, it would take about six months to sell all of the homes on the market.” There are more than twice as many homes for sale as there should be, and a new string of foreclosures are expected to flood to market in the wake of the robo-signing scandal that imposed a moratorium on foreclosures late last year.

Home prices will also face headwinds as interest rates rise and the government begins winding down the tax credits and loan guarantees that made buying easier. The moral? Housing prices still face an uphill battle. The bottom could come late this year or in 2012, but that doesn’t mean we’ll see prices heading back to the 2007 peak. Just as the Nasdaq hasn’t returned to its dotcom bubble glory, it could be decades before we see re-touch the highs we saw in housing. We are, after all, trying to get our bearing after the biggest bubble in history. Stabilization should our goal – not returning to the prices we saw in 2007.

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Uranium prices take biggest tumble since 2008

A “non-traditional” seller in the uranium market offloaded 800,000 pounds of yellowcake last week leading to the biggest one-week price drop for uranium since the financial crisis in 2008, according to the Financial Post.

TD Newcrest analyst Greg Barnes told the Post that the seller was from China. “Rather than have the uranium concentrate converted in the West, the Chinese sold it in favour of material that could be imported into China as uranium concentrate and processed domestically,” Barnes wrote.

The move was “an adjustment of inventory positions,” Barnes says, not a signal that the Chinese have turned bearish on uranium. True to form, prices dipped then appeared to stabilize at $68.75. Medium and long term indicative prices remain at $75 a pound and $70 pound respectively, according to FNArena.

By all accounts, its been a banner year for uranium. Fifty-three increasingly-expensive transactions covering nine million pounds of yellowcake have given the uranium market its strongest start since 2005. The best may be yet to come.

China, which has 13 reactors in operation, is in the process of constructing 27 more. That’s led to a big push to stockpile uranium in the country, and at least one analyst is calling for uranium prices at $100 per pound by the end of the year.

CFA Daniel Rohr makes a more modest forecast at Morningstar: “Specifically, we are increasing our 2011 spot price forecast from $65/lb to $75/lb and increasing our 2012 forecast from $75/lb to $77.50/lb. Our forecast for 2013 ($80/lb) and 2014 ($85/lb) are unchanged.”

Rising coal and oil prices have made nuclear power attractive as governments around the world move toward greener power generation. That’s got speculators testing the waters in the uranium markets. Shares in Uranium Participation Corp. (TSE:U) – an investment fund that holds physical uranium – are up nearly 40 percent over the past year with 10 percent of those gains coming since Jan. 1.

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