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Archive for September, 2010

Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) moves higher on Morningstar’s list of top-performing mutual funds

The Tocqueville Gold Fund has edged out the PIMCO Real Estate Real Return Strategy A (PETAX) mutual fund for the No. 2 spot on Morningstar’s top mutual fund performers YTD. That puts it behind only the Dynamic Gold and Precious Metals I (DWGOX) mutual fund – another gold-focused fund that’s returned some 50 percent YTD. The Tocqueville Gold Fund has returned just shy of 36 percent YTD, and here’s a look at its Top 10 biggest holdings as of Aug. 31, 2010:

Holding % of Total Assets Ticker
Physical Gold 7.2% n/a
Osisko Mining Corporation 6.2% TSE:OSK
Randgold Resources Limited – ADR. 4.5% NASDAQ:GOLD
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. 4.4% NYSE:IVN
Eldorado Gold Corp (pvt) 4.1% NYSE:EGO
Andean Resources 4.0% TSE:AND
IAMGOLD Corporation 3.8% NYSE:IAG
Silver Wheaton Corp (pvt) 3.6% NYSE:SLW
Newmont Mining Corporation 3.5% NYSE:NEM
Goldcorp, Inc. 2.9% NYSE:GG

Compare their holdings with Dynamic Gold and Precious Metals I (DWGOX) mutual fund, and you’ll see Tocqueville Gold Fund’s more conservative – although there are quite a few overlaps. Namely, both funds count the following stocks in their Top 10 holdings:

  • Osisko Mining Corporation (TSE:OSK)
  • Eldorado Gold Corp (NYSE:EGO)
  • Andean Resources (TSE:AND)

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Titans of fast food: Which restaurants have the most U.S. locations?

One way to gauge how much room for expansion a restaurant chain has is to look at the number of U.S. restaurant locations the leaders in fast food have. Drawing heavily on a post at EZLocal, here’s a list of the some of the titans of fast food with comparisons against some young upstarts including Cold Stone, Panera and Chipotle:

Number of outlets in U.S. Company Name Stock Ticker
23,336 Subway N/A
14,000 McDonald’s Corporation NYSE:MCD
11,000 Starbucks Corporation NASDAQ:SBUX
7,566 Pizza Hut YUM! Brands, Inc. (YUM)
7,233 Burger King Holdings, Inc. NYSE:BKC
6,500 Dunkin Donuts N/A
5,877 Wendy’s Arby’s Group Inc. NYSE:WEN
5,604 Taco Bell YUM! Brands, Inc. (YUM)
5,162 KFC YUM! Brands, Inc. (YUM)
4,927 Domino’s Pizza, Inc. NYSE:DPZ
1,400 Cold Stone Creamery, Inc. N/A
1,400 Panera Bread Company NASDAQ:PNRA
1,000 Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. NYSE:CMG

10 things you should know before you short a stock

This post is part of an investment series on shorting stocks titled 100 tips on how to short sell stocks.

1. Gains from short sales are taxed as ordinary income. To limit your exposure to short sale taxes, only short stocks in a tax-sheltered account or short stocks you expect to hold for a relatively long time.

2. Avoid shorting stocks in companies that are high in assets – even if they’re straddled with debt. Companies that have lots of debt and lots of assets are ripe for takeovers. Even the rumor of a takeover can push a stock up 20 percent or more in value overnight, and that could crush your short position.

3. Leave plenty of cushion in your account so that you can absorb temporary run-ups in price. Even if you’ve found a dog in the market, that dog could still take some dead cat bounces. Never risk more than 25 percent of your portfolio on a short. If the stock shoots up, you want to hold through that rise in price, so that you can watch your short position settle where it’s supposed to: near zero.

4. Short selling is subject to different margin requirements than going long on stocks. Carefully read your broker’s requirements on short margin as this could lead to the premature liquidation of your position.

5. Short selling can lead to more than 100 percent in losses (meaning you just might end up owing your broker money). Let’s say you’ve decided shorting a company with shares trading at $5 per share. If that company starts putting together a lot of big wins and the share price shoots up to $30, you’re out more than 600 percent! The moral? Have tangible reasons before you short a stock.

6. You can’t just short shares in any company. Your broker might not have the inventory to support a short position. That means all your research has went to waste. Study companies with trading volumes over 100,000 shares per day to focus your research on the companies you’ll most likely be able to short.

7. You can’t short stocks without a margin account. If you can’t trade on margin in your brokerage account, you won’t be able to short stocks. Contact your broker to apply to upgrade your account if you don’t have a margin account.

8. Short positions can lead to large losses in short periods of time. A so-called “short squeeze” happens when a stock that’s heavily shorted starts climbing. Many of the short investors who don’t have the cushion in their accounts to absorb the climb are forced to cover their shorts. This “squeeze” pushes the stock’s price up even higher.

9. Shorting a stock that pays dividends means you’re responsible for paying the dividends to the owner of the shares. You’ll receive a dividend if you’re shorting a stock when the dividend is paid, but, in turn, you’ll owe at the money to the owner of the stock who expects the dividend. This money may or may not appear temporarily appear in your trading account.

10. Put options can act as shorts. If you’re convinced the share price in a particular company will fall, you can buy a put option that gives you the right but not the obligation to sell shares in the future at a discount to the current price (so long as the value of the stock actually falls).

Shorting shares can lead to significant profits, but it can also lead to enormous losses. Be sure you fully understand the implications of shorting before you start, and make every effort to learn as much about the companies that you’re shorting as you possibly can. The more you know, the better you can protect yourself from losses, which is, after all, your No. 1 goal as an investor. You’re in it to make money, not lose money.

This post is part of an investment series on shorting stocks titled 100 tips on how to short sell stocks. Click for more tips and tricks on shorting stocks.

10 secrets to finding stocks to short

This post is part of an investment series on shorting stocks titled 100 tips on how to short sell stocks.

1. Seek out stocks that have no intrinsic value. A stock with a $10 million market cap and $20 million in debt, for instance, or a company that’s at a competitive disadvantage in a crowded marketplace. Either would be a great stock to short.

2. Wait for a trigger that’s going to push share prices down before you short a stock. If you’re confident an overvalued stock is going to have a disappointing earnings report, wait until that report comes out and sell shares short. If strong companies in the same sector are reporting poor earnings, expect the weaker companies to report poor earnings, too, and short before the earnings release.

3. Good at reading balance sheets? Find the accounting tricks that are artificially propping up a stock. A great example of this are financial stocks that have been able to mark-to-market essentially worthless assets. Two years ago, the banks’ balance sheets looked a lot worse than they do today, but not a whole lot has changed. If the economy tanks, those accounting tricks won’t hold water.

4. Look for companies with mounting inventories. If a company’s stock-piling their wares, that means there aren’t any buyers out there. A company just can’t keep making products no one buys. Eventually, it’ll lead to price reductions, lowered margins and declining earnings. Going short before the broader market recognizes the troubles at a company are the key to locking in big profits.

5. Keep an eye out for insider sales. Inside sales are a normal part of business. If a high-level director at the company needs cash to finance a trip to Belize, he’s justified in selling some company stock. On the other hand, large, million-dollar plus sales don’t happen every day. And if there’s one thing an executive doesn’t like, it’s losing money. If they expect their company’s shares to keep going up, they’re not going to sell. They’ll be begging their uncle for a loan before they do that.

6. Seek out companies with shriveling or negative free cash flows. Companies that have taken on significant acquisition costs or R&D expenses will have lower earnings in the future. If their business model can’t support the research or acquisition, they just might not be able to climb out of the hole, and you can climb right in and make some money.

7. Short stocks in companies with obfuscated 10-Ks or 10-Qs. If a company’s struggling to keep their profits looking good, they’re going to have to come up with some nifty accounting tricks to do it. That means lots more paperwork when they file their annual reports. If you notice substantial increases in page-counts, read the fine print carefully.

8. Low-volume is your friend. If a stock’s moving up or trading sideways on low volume, investors are likely growing complacent or weary of a company. Don’t short a stock that’s climbing on high volume. You could be out of buying power faster than a fresh college grad.

9. If you’re good at shorting stocks, you can make money going long. Have a good track record of selling short? Then, you’re great at identifying when a stock is overbought. On the flip side, that means you can probably tell when a stock’s oversold. Try going long if you’ve had lots of success selling short. Just look for all the signs you avoid when you usually short a stock.

10. Short stocks that have investors in a tizzy (just make sure you wait until the party’s over). Often, a small-cap stock will release news of a huge sale that pushes a stock price up 20 percent or more. If you read the underlying news, though, the fundamentals just aren’t there. It’s not unusual to see share prices pushed up beyond values that the news justifies. For example, if a small-cap stock announces $10 million in new sales, that shouldn’t justify an intraday climb of 20 percent in market cap.

The moral? Shorting stocks is the art of getting ahead of irrational investors. If you watch carefully for the signs, you should be able to successfully short overbought stocks.

This post is part of an investment series on shorting stocks titled 100 tips on how to short sell stocks.

100 tips on how to short sell stocks

Short selling is a bet that a particular commodity, equity or stock will go down. If the stock or object you’re “shorting” goes down after you buy it, you sell and pocket the difference. Because markets rarely ever behave rationally, shorting stocks requires a good dose of intestinal fortitude based on tangible facts. If you’re shorting stocks without logic behind your moves, you could end up losing even more than you invested in the first place!

Short selling turns a lot of conventional wisdom on its head, and that means it requires a thorough understanding of what you stand to lose and gain. When you short a stock, for instance, you could actually lose more than 100 percent of your original investment. If you’ve shorted shares in Company XYZ at $10, and the price climbs to $21, you’re going to owe your broker money.

The more you know before you enter a short position, the better you’ll be able to sleep at night. And, you’ve come to the right place if you want to learn more about shorting stocks. We’ve put together this series titled “100 tips on how to short sell stocks.” Bookmark this page to follow us as we put together a series of posts with tips and tricks for getting the most out of your short investments.

100 tips on how to short sell stocks

1. 10 things you should know BEFORE you short a stock

2. 10 secrets to finding stocks to short

3. Three tips to make money shorting stocks

Healthcare giant Pall Corporation (NYSE:PLL) to set tone for sector

What’s good for Pall Corporation (NYSE:PLL) is good for the health care and water industries writ large. A New York-based provider of filters, separators and purifiers for liquids and gases, Pall serves the manufacturing and health care industries. Analysts are expecting the company to announce earnings of $0.64 per share after the bell today.

That’s well above last quarter’s $0.58 per share, and it comes on the heel’s of some big contracts the company has landed with New Brunswick Scientific, the city of Calexico, California, and, most recently, a big contract with Abu Dhabi Gas Industries Ltd. (GASCO).

Pall Corporation did issue $375 million in senior notes at 5 percent recently (to pay off higher-interest notes due in 2012), and offer guidance in the “low single digits” for the forth quarter. All told, Pall expects EPS of $1.97 for fiscal 2010. Earnings of $0.64 per share this quarter would put them well on the way to hitting $1.97 per share for the year.

The company’s biggest growth of late has been in its “microelectronics” department where revenue jumped 89 percent. Increased global industrial demand is where the real profits are, though, and CEO Eric Krasnoff was confident industrial demand is going to keep growing.

“The expected industrial recovery appears to now be firmly under way,” Krasnoff said in a press release last quarter. Let’s hope he’s right; not just for Pall, but the economy at large.

Will MDS Inc. (NYSE:MDZ) finally be profitable?

After losing more than $750 million over the past year, could this be the quarter that Canadian Biotech company MDS Inc. (NYSE:MDZ) finally turns things around? MDS will report their earnings after the bell today, and analysts are expecting a loss of $0.01 per share (or roughly $670 million).

The company’s been in a reinvention phase after announcing the sale of its Analytical Technologies and Pharma Services businesses in September of 2009. Analysts keep thinking MDS will turn the corner after absorbing costs associated with the sale, but the company still seems mired in lingering costs. Last quarter, analysts expected a loss of $0.06 per share. Instead, MDS reported a loss of $0.51 per share.

“While the Company’s focus is now solely on the MDS Nordion business, as well as Corporate and Other functions, transactions associated with the strategic repositioning continue to have a significant impact on continuing operations,” MDS said in a press release at the time.

Hopefully, last quarter’s big write-off will prove enough to help MDS return to profitability – a state the company hasn’t seen since June 2009.

MDS has gotten some good news in recent months, at least. Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., which owns and operates the National Research Universal reactor, began shipping isotopes to MDS Nordion in Ottawa last month. MDS processes the isotopes before sending them on to hospitals across the country.

That will re-start a revenue stream for MDS that was shut off for 15 months for cleaning. That’s big news as MDS Nordion leads Canada’s molecular imaging and radiotherapeutics market. Of course, the change won’t be reflected in today’s earnings report, but it’s a big step in the right direction. Re-inventing a company takes time and money, after all. And sometimes it takes a lot longer and costs a lot more than investors would like – particularly when nuclear reactors are involvedd.

Three tips to make money shorting stocks

This post is part of a series on shorting stocks. Read the first post, How to short a stock, if you’re not sure how to place a short order with your broker.

Shorting stocks is riskier than going long on stocks for one reason: you can lose more than 100 percent of your original investment. If you short a stock at $5 and it more than doubles to $11, you’re out more than 100 percent. You’ll actually owe your broker money, or the losses will cut into your other positions.

The first rule of shorting stocks then is not to lose money. You’ve got to be especially vigilant since you can lose so much money. Be sure to set a stop order so that your broker will automatically cover your short in the event that the company gets some good news.

If you’re not completely turned off from shorting stocks, please follow these three steps to make money shorting stocks:

1) Don’t short a stock until it’s started declining. The key to shorting stock is finding a company that’s significantly over-valued, but those over-valuations typically happen in a powerful bull run. You don’t want to short a stock that’s on its way up. You should wait until it starts declining before selling short.

2) Short stocks that are fundamentally weak. If you’ve got the option between two companies, pick the one that’s got more debt, a P/E ratio of zero, or companies that have issued lowered guidance. Never short a stock that has good fundamentals such as a track record of raising dividends, a low P/E ratio or solidly climbing earnings.

3) Short stocks that the market has pushed too high. When a particular company gets good news that hits the press, it’s not uncommon for investors to push shares in that company too high, too fast. The impending crash after the market regains its senses is a great way to capture five or 10 percent in gains by selling the stock short.

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Matrix Service Company (MTRX) delays earnings announcement

Is there a glitch in the matrix? Matrix Service Company (NASDAQ:MTRX) has announced they’re delaying their upcoming earnings release. They’ll have until Sept. 28, 2010, to file Form 10-K as they look into “recently discovered alleged fraudulent activities by current and former employees in one operating location in the United States.”

The employees involved have been suspended without pay, and the company is assuring investors that the investigation and alleged fraudulent activities will not have a material impact on the company’s earnings.

“The Company is currently evaluating the information it has obtained regarding the alleged activities, but believes the overall financial impact will not be material,” they wrote in their official press release.

Matrix Service Company’s earning call was previously scheduled for Monday, Sept. 13, 2010. They have not announced when they will reschedule the earnings conference call although it will likely be on or before Sept. 28, 2010. The extension was obtained after Matrix Service filed a Form 12B-25.

Analysts are expecting earnings of $0.13 per share – down 50 percent from last year’s $0.26 per share.

Top three reasons to buy small-cap stocks

Small-cap stocks are roughly defined as companies with a market capitalization somewhere between $300 million and $2 billion. They’re the diamonds in the rough, that could, one-day, be the next leaders in their industries. Here are three reasons to seriously consider adding more small-cap stocks to your portfolio:

1) Small-cap stocks have historically beaten the market average by 2 percent. Studies that have analyzed nearly 75 years of market activity, find that small-caps do better on the whole. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee you’re going to pick a winner, but, if you do, you’ll probably outperform the market as a whole.

2) Mutual funds and hedge funds just don’t have the ability to invest in small caps. If that small company turns into a large one someday, though, they’ll be there waiting to move into the stock. Mutual funds and hedge funds are the true market movers. Because they manage so much capital, though, they can’t effectively invest in small-cap stocks. They’d end up buying up all the shares on the market and pushing the price for the stock through the roof. If you get it in early, you could be holding shares when mutual funds start pushing up the share prices of what were once small companies.

3) It’s easier for a small to company to grow than it for a large company to grow. Your small-cap stock could be one gigantic client away from turning it into a winner. On the flip side of the coin, it could be one lost contract away from a loser. Still, it’s easier to grow a companies sales from $100 million to $200 million in a year (100 percent growth!), than it is for a larger company to grow from $2 billion to $4 billion in sales in a year.

Small cap stocks are where great compounding returns truly lie, but they’re also harder to find among the thousands of other tiny, ignored shares that trade on the major exchanges. Find companies with a competitive advantage and great management, though, and you’ve probably got yourself a winner … it just might take a while.







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